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U.S. HOTEL DEMAND declined by 0.5 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2023, according to CBRE. Simultaneously, there was a matching 0.5 percent increase in supply. The combined effect of these factors led to a 1 percent decrease in occupancy. ADR increased by 0.6 percent during the quarter, marking the slowest improvement since the pandemic recovery began 10 quarters ago, the CBRE data revealed. RevPAR decreased by 0.3 percent, as a modest decline in occupancy was partially offset by the rise in ADR. Despite sustained consumer spending, hotel demand and pricing power in Q3 were hampered by competition from alternative lodging sources like short-term rentals and cruise lines, along with an uptick in outbound international travel. According to the report, hotel wage growth in September outpaced the national average of 4.3 percent, registering at 4.7 percent, but declined from 7 percent at year-end 2022. Average hourly hotel wages fell nearly $10 below the national average, suggesting ongoing pressure for wage increases.

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index rose again in April, continuing a trend the index has followed for the past four months. Investors' optimism is driven by the travel industry's ongoing recovery due to pent-up demand that is overriding negative influences, such as the Russia/Ukraine war and rising interest rates. Baird/STR went up 0.7 percent during the month, according to STR. The index rose 3.1 percent over the first four months of 2022. In March it increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The index also surpassed both the S&P 500, which dropped 8.8 percent in April, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which went down 4.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 0.5 percent from March, while the hotel REIT sub-index jumped up 1.5 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE declined in the third week of December as anticipated ahead of the holidays, according to CoStar. Three key metrics-occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR-all dipped compared to the previous week. Occupancy fell to 43.9 percent for the week ending Dec. 23, down from the previous week's 54.7 percent, but demonstrated a year-over-year increase of 0.5 percent. ADR decreased to $131.97, compared to the prior week's $142.62, marking a 0.9 percent decline from the previous year. RevPAR also declined to $57.9, compared to the prior week's $77.99, indicating a 0.4 percent decrease from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Boston experienced the most significant year-over-year increases, with occupancy rising by 21.5 percent to 46.2 percent and RevPAR up by 23.1 percent to $65.68. Anaheim recorded the highest ADR increase, rising by 14.7 percent to $190.86.

HILTON'S EXTENDED-STAY Homewood Suites brand is getting a new look. The brand's new Prototype 10.0 includes a smaller footprint but with more rooms, as well as changes to guest suites and common spaces. The new prototype draws from design ideas implemented during a 2019 update implemented in open Homewood Suites hotels as part of the brand's 30-year anniversary. Prototype 10.0 features a site size reduction from 2.49 acres to 2.36 acres and building area reduction by more than 3,350 square feet while increasing the number of rooms from 121 to 131 suites. Another developer-oriented change is new F&B options aimed at increasing revenue. The suites have been modified so they can be booked individually or as connected groups. The fitness center has been reimagined and guest laundry rooms have been expanded. More common areas have been added inside and outside in the prototype. "We modernized the brand to appeal to the evolving needs of our guests, who are going to love the functionality and flexibility of the innovations, which are intended to make them feel both empowered and cared for, whether they're with us for an overnight trip or an extended stay," said Rick Colling, global head of Homewood Suites.

HOTEL STOCK PRICE volatility dragged the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November. Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs significantly underperformed their respective benchmarks during the month. The Baird/STR index fell 7.6 percent during the month from October. However, it was up 11.5 percent year to date through the first 11 months of 2021. The index rose 6.8 percent during October compared to September. The index was behind both the S&P 500, which fell 0.8 percent in November, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 0.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index dropped 7.2 percent from October while the hotel REIT sub-index slipped 8.9 percent. "Hotel stock price volatility continued in November with both the Hotel brands and Hotel REITs significantly underperforming their respective benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Two different investment narratives drove stock price performance during the month: In early November, third quarter earnings were better than expected, reopening optimism continued to gain momentum, and the hotel brands were hitting new all-time highs; but, by the end of the month, broader growth and inflation concerns surfaced, the Omicron variant spooked investors and impacted all travel-related stocks, and the hotel REITs were hitting new year-to-date lows."

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mixed year-over-year comparisons in the third week of November, according to CoStar. Moreover, both occupancy and RevPAR declined compared to the previous week. Occupancy dropped to 62.4 percent for the week ending Nov. 18, down from the previous week's 64.8 percent, marking a year-over-year decrease of 0.6 percent. ADR saw a slight increase to $156.47, compared to the previous week's $156.01, demonstrating a significant 7 percent uptick from the previous year. Despite a decline to $97.61 in RevPAR compared to the previous week's $101.13, there was a noteworthy 6.3 percent rise from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Boston led with the largest year-over-year occupancy gain, surging by 11.0 percent to reach 77.2 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased at the beginning of December as expected, compared to the last week of November, according to CoStar. Hotel occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR improved compared to the previous week. Occupancy increased to 54.2 percent for the week ending Dec. 2, up from the prior week's 49.4 percent, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.6 percent. ADR rose to $144.88, compared to the previous week's $138.29, showing a 0.8percent uptick from the prior year. RevPAR also rose to $78.54, compared to the prior week's $68.32, marking a 0.8 percent decrease from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, New York City saw the largest year-over-year increases in occupancy, rising by 6.8 percent to 83.5 percent, and RevPAR surged by 17.2 percent to $319.18. Las Vegas recorded the highest ADR increase, rising by 11.2 percent to $232.94.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mixed results in the first week of May compared to the prior week, according to CoStar. Among key metrics, occupancy declined, whereas both RevPAR and ADR saw an uptick. Occupancy dropped to 64.4 percent for the week ending May 4, down from the previous week's 65.7 percent, marking a 0.8 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR rose to $159.97 from $154.44, reflecting a 1.3 percent increase compared to last year. RevPAR climbed to $103.09, up from $101.42 the prior week, indicating a 0.5 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle reported the highest year-over-year increase in occupancy, rising by 8.1 percent to 69.4 percent. Dallas recorded the largest increase in ADR, up 5.8 percent to $134.33.

WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS released fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings that included record-high rooms growth. Geoff Ballotti, Wyndham's president and CEO, said the strong results reinforce the company's decision to refuse Choice Hotels International's ongoing efforts to buy Wyndham out. In its earning call, Wyndham reported that system-wide rooms grew organically by 3.5 percent year-over-year, a record high. The company opened a record 66,000 organic rooms, a 3 percent year-over-year increase. Its development pipeline grew 1 percent sequentially and by 10 percent year-over-year to 240,000 rooms, another record, including 98 new contract signings for its ECHO Suites brand, a 60 percent YoY growth in that part of the pipeline. Wyndham's shareholders, who will be key to determining the success or failure of Choice's efforts to acquire the company, saw several benefits from last year's performance. Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share was 60 cents with a net income of $50 million. The company returned $515 million to shareholders for the full-year through $397 million of share repurchases and quarterly cash dividends of $0.35 per share. Its board of directors also authorized a 9 percent increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.38 per share beginning with the dividend expected to be declared in first quarter of 2024.