Assessing Kurzweil: the results - Less Wrong - 0 views
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when talking about unprecedented future events such as nanotechnology or AI, the choice of the model is also dependent on expert judgement.
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Ray Kurzweil has a model of technological intelligence development where, broadly speaking, evolution, pre-computer technological development, post-computer technological development and future AIs all fit into the same exponential increase.
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In various books, he's made predictions about what would happen in 2009, and we're now in a position to judge their accuracy. I haven't been satisfied by the various accuracy ratings I've found online, so I decided to do my own assessments.
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