The reason people have come to believe that polls are wrong is because the polls describe a reality that is utterly counter to what should be happening according to history, norms, and standard
There is no universe in which this election should be close. When we see polls showing that it’s actually very close, we recoil from them.
Here is the truth: We’ve lost sight of just how damned unreal this moment in American history is.
Nothing about it makes sense, or fits within existing patterns. We are in the middle of a genuine authoritarian attempt, which means that our baseline reality has shifted. None of us has been in a place like this pre-2016.
As a result, the smell tests we used to in the Before Times have become unreliable, because what was once unthinkable is now routine.