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Experts like Paul Ehrlich argue that the population of the world has long since surpassed optimal levels, though critics counter that consumption is as important as population levels.

one-third of all people – almost 4 billion – will be African.

By that year, there will be more Nigerians than Americans.

If birthrates have fallen so far, why is the population still rising fast?

In the pre-modern era, fertility rates of 4.5 to 7 children per woman were common. At that time, high mortality rates of young people kept population growth low.

The level of education in a society – of women in particular – is one of the most important predictors for the number of children families have.

People are living longer

which means that one child in 13 die before their fifth birthday.

This compares with six for every 1,000 in Europe and northern America and four for every 1,000 in Australia and New Zealand.

A consequence of falling child mortality but continuing high fertility is a “youth bulge” – a high population of young people.

But ageing populations can be a cause for celebration. It means development has taken place.

What next?

Family planning organisations are learning that to survive political shifts and budget cuts, they need to diversify their sources of funding. This means seeing family planning as not just a public health concern but also about development and a clear return on investment.