Socialism and the End of the American Dream

There is another option to the "New RTC", however, which involves debt holders taking a share of the losses.  If steps are not taken to ensure that this happens, the greatest heist in history will have occurred: at least $1 trillion will be transferred from taxpayers to debt holders of failed financial institutions.  This must not be allowed to happen.

The sickening feeling of the average investor and taxpayer being "had" by the economic crisis continues, and continues to come from disappointing quarters. My latest jolt came from a throwaway line from exiting Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in an interview with Maria Bartiromo that aired on CNBC this week. Yikes! This is a frightening look at Goldman Sachs and the foreknowledge Henry Paulson had of financial-crisis to come.

Troubled assets are just stuff that banks paid too much for. Mostly, that stuff is loans made to people who cannot afford to pay them off, secured by collateral that is worth less than the loan value. Those loans were made so people could buy everything from homes and cars to shopping malls and construction companies. The reason they are financially crippling is that banks don't want to admit how badly they overpaid, so they keep carrying worthless junk at inflated values on their balance sheets.  The "systemic" problems arise because everyone knows the banks are holding junk that they are pretending are jewels. Investors and lenders don't believe the assets are worth what the banks say they are, so they won't lend or invest against the phoney valuations.

Whenever a government regulatory agency proves itself to be incredibly incompetent or corrupt, the respectable media swoop in to declare that the "free market" has failed and the agency in question obviously needs more money and power. Whether it's the Department of Education's failure to produce kids who can read, the FBI's accusations against innocent people in high-profile cases, or the FDA cracking down on tomatoes, the answer is always the same: proponents of bigger government argue that yes, mistakes were made, but the solution of course is to shovel more taxpayer money into the agencies in question. In the private sector, when a firm fails, it ceases operations. The opposite happens in government.

Continued from "The End of the Financial World As We Know It"

Full Article in NYT: AMERICANS enter the New Year in a strange new role: financial lunatics. We've been viewed by the wider world with mistrust and suspicion on other matters, but on the subject of money even our harshest critics have been inclined to believe that we knew what we were doing. They watched our investment bankers and emulated them: for a long time now half the planet's college graduates seemed to want nothing more out of life than a job on Wall Street.

Two of the sharpest minds in the Wall Street analysis and commentary business--Michael Lewis and David Einhorn--team up in the NYT to provide a recap of our historic charge off the financial cliff.  The main message: Sure, greed played a role, as it always does, but the ridiculous conflicts, self-interest, and short-termism in our system made the current mess inevitable.

New-New Deal, bailouts, trillions in debt, antitax mindset spell disaster .... 1) Dot-Com Crash .. Stock market loses $8 Trillion ....2) SubPrime Meltdown: $8.2 Trillion taxpayer loses ....3) MegaBubble Cycles Continue to Hit: 41,000 special-interest lobbyist working a Congress determined to cut taxes while exploding spending, a credit crunch based on consumer debt of $2.5 Trillion, unfunded obligations in SS and Medicare now at $60 Trillion, hidden bailout costs of $5 Trillion, Fannie and Freddie $5 Trillion securitized subprime leveraged 40 times over into $200 Trillion of insured loans and custom derivatives. It's a mess ......

How did hedge fund manager Steve Eisman win big off the market meltdown? What will Wall Street look like in five years? In this third and final part of our interview, I put those questions to Liar's Poker author Michael Lewis, editor of the new anthology Panic: The Story of Modern Financial Insanity.

Washington a few months ago might have bought the entire stock of subprime mortgages for about half the money committed by the Fed and Treasury last week to prop up Citigroup and spur consumer and mortgage lending. Buying up bad mortgages would at least have left the private sector in charge of issuing new credit, which -- however bad its performance during the housing bubble -- would likely produce better results than government directing credit allocation in the economy. They (Federal Reserve-Treasury-FDIC-Congress) failed to douse the confidence/systemic-risk fire and now have moved on to fighting recession by turning credit allocation into a public utility. Vikram Pandit of Citigroup says: "We have gone from arm's length, free market, just-in-time availability" of funding to a system where big credit-reliant businesses now have only one place to turn, government.

Maybe Washington will succeed in forestalling a deep and prolonged recession. Maybe all the money ($8 trillion by one count) being printed to acquire or insure mortgages, student loans, credit card receivables, commercial paper and banking shares will be seamlessly withdrawn once those assets are sold back to willing parties in the private sector when the panic has passed. Maybe taxpayers will even make a profit on the deal.

Imagine if we took the basic design parameters of my DA-2A and applied them to a modern automobile. The new design would have to carry two people and luggage, have an empty weight of no more than 625 lbs. and use an 85-horsepower engine. With a loaded weight of 1125 lbs., the car would have a power-to-weight ratio comparable to a Chevy Corvette and be just as quick -- probably even faster than the airplane's 140 mph. Driven only 20 percent over posted speed limits as God intended, the car would easily get 50+ miles per gallon. Who wouldn't want to buy one? At the heart of manufacturing is the simple concept of buying raw materials in volume at a low price per pound and selling manufactured products at retail for a high price per pound. The eventual retail price per pound is determined by the marketplace and ideally it ought to be high enough for the manufacturer to make a profit. The very light weight of our DA-2A car analog suggests that it ought to be inexpensive to buy, but maybe all that means is we have to look beyond the car industry to bicycles.

How is it that anyone can claim with a straight face that the government will likely make money from its various bailout investments? We suspect that anyone saying this is completely out of touch with the size of the losses, bailout funds and emergency lending programs. Because if you add those up, as Bloomberg did today, they amount to more than $7.4 trillion dollars. And it's growing. Where's all that money coming from?

From the vantage point of November 15th, 2008, whilst the Washington, DC, summit is underway amongst the leaders of the G20 nations, it would appear that there are four distinct global economic scenarios that may unfold towards the tail end of this year, 2009 and 2010:

There is a rising myth of the single bubble which suggests that The Great Unwind -- manifest as the global credit crunch -- is essentially about subprime mortgage default, a USD 1.5 trillion challenge. The truth is that there are as many as eight bubbles at play which are in the process of bursting, taking the form of deleverage on an unprecedented scale. Even 1929 pales in comparison. At a recent ATCA roundtable we posed the following questions for Socratic dialogue:

The Invisible One Quadrillion Dollar Equation -- Asymmetric Leverage and Systemic Risk According to various distinguished sources including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland -- the central bankers' bank -- the amount of outstanding derivatives worldwide as of December 2007 crossed USD 1.144 Quadrillion, ie, USD 1,144 Trillion. The main categories of the USD 1.144 Quadrillion derivatives market were the following:

Why are Markets still Falling? The Tsunami caused by Derivatives and Deleveraging The invisible elephant in the room causing continuous falls in global financial markets is the link to the privately traded Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and the financial uncertainty they have created whilst synchronised deleveraging takes place across the world. ... Credit default swaps are unregulated financial derivatives which act as debt insurance on risky assets like mortgages, corporate and government bonds. But unlike a normal insurance policy, financial institutions that sell credit default swaps are not required to have enough funds in reserve should those risky loans turn bad. Since the US Congress in 2000 declined to regulate these contracts as it does insurance, the companies that guarantee the assets are not required by law to keep enough capital on hand to pay them off in the event of a default.

NYTImes Review of Soros Book: "The End of an Era": At the start of this year, Soros, convinced (correctly) that the financial crisis was far from over, adopted a bearish investment strategy, which he describes thus: "short US and European stocks, US ten-year government bonds, and the US dollar; long Chinese, Indian, and Gulf States stocks and non-US currencies." Initially, some of these positions didn't pay off. Between January and March, US bonds rallied and Indian stocks tumbled, wiping out gains in other parts of Quantum's portfolio. Just how Soros has fared in the past few months of market turmoil may be known only to investors in Quantum, but it would be foolhardy to bet against him.

A YouTube montage of Peter Schiff's comments and predicitons on Fox Business News startign back in 2006. Peter called it exactly right, correctly identifying that mortgages and falling home values would cause a global economic collapse. Incredible foresight.

President Bush's speech at the Manhattan Institute defending Capitalism . All i can say is, it's about time someone stood up for American Capitalism. "All this leads to the most important principle that should guide our work: While reforms in the financial sector are essential, the long-term solution to today's problems is sustained economic growth. And the surest path to that growth is free markets and free people. In the wake of the financial crisis, voices from the left and right equate the free-enterprise system with greed and exploitation and failure. It's true this crisis included failures -- by lenders and borrowers and financial firms, and by governments and independent regulators. But the crisis was not a failure of the free-market system. And the answer is not to try to reinvent that system. It is to fix the problems, make reforms, and move forward with the free-market principles that have delivered prosperity and hope to people all across the globe. Capitalism is not perfect. But it is by far the most efficient and just way of structuring an economy.

The most significant features of the U.S. Constitution are the establishment of the rule of law, the creation of a federal system with a supreme national government, the separation of governmental powers into three branches that check and balance each other, its flexibility and the establishment of a republican form of government.