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Paul Merrell

Top Stories - If Terrorist Attacks are on the Rise, What Does that Say about the 13-Yea... - 0 views

www.allgov.com/...-year-old-war-on-terror-150629

war & peace war on terror™ stats

shared by Paul Merrell on 30 Jun 15 - No Cached
  • The phrase “war on terror” was first used shortly after the September 11, 2001, attacks by then-President George W. Bush. More recently, President Barack Obama declared in 2013 that he’s no longer pursuing the war on terror in favor of “a series of persistent, targeted efforts to dismantle specific networks of violent extremists that threaten America.” But regardless of whether the United States claims to be in such a war, terror attacks continue to increase. The most recent figures from the State Department show that there was a sharp increase in terror attacks worldwide in 2014 over the numbers from the previous year. According to its figures, attacks increased 35% and fatalities jumped 81% over 2013’s numbers, with the increase coming mainly in Iraq, Afghanistan and Nigeria. Part of the reason for the huge increase in fatalities was the jump in large-scale attacks, those killing more than 100 people. There were 20 such attacks in 2014, compared to two in 2013. There were a total of 13,463 terrorist attacks last year. The month of May, when fighting in Afghanistan heats up with the weather, had the most with 1,338.
  • Those aren’t the only metrics available on the war on terror, of course. Another is how much money has been spent. A report (pdf) from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) says that $1.6 trillion has gone into U.S. war efforts since 9/11. That includes “military operations, base support, weapons maintenance, training of Afghan and Iraq security forces, reconstruction, foreign aid, embassy costs, and veterans’ health care for the war operations initiated since the 9/11 attacks,” according to the report. That spending continues to grow. Those numbers don’t include money appropriated since the Consolidated Appropriations Act for fiscal year 2014. CRS’s dollar figure is stunning on its own. But the Costs of War project, a nonpartisan, nonprofit, scholarly initiative based at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, came up with even more eye-popping numbers. They put the cost of the post-9/11 fighting at $4.4 trillion. In addition to the costs of bullets and bandages, they included the interest on the money borrowed to fight the war (remember—Bush sought no tax increases to fund the fighting); the money it took out of the economy and cost Americans in increased interest; the future cost of treating and healing wounded veterans (expected to peak in 30 or 40 years at more than $1 trillion); and increased homeland security spending.
  • Interest payments on the money borrowed to pay for the war on terror will continue far into the future and are expected to be astronomical as well: $1 trillion by 2023, or more than $7 trillion by 2053. The Costs of War also looked at what the war on terror cost in terms of lost opportunities; that is, what the money could have been spent on instead of the military, such as domestic infrastructure and non-military job creation.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • The phrase “war on terror” was first used shortly after the September 11, 2001, attacks by then-President George W. Bush. More recently, President Barack Obama declared in 2013 that he’s no longer pursuing the war on terror in favor of “a series of persistent, targeted efforts to dismantle specific networks of violent extremists that threaten America.” But regardless of whether the United States claims to be in such a war, terror attacks continue to increase.
  • Paul Merrell on 30 Jun 15
     
    Yes, Virginia. We have lost the War on Terror and the piper must be paid. 
Paul Merrell

Central asset bubbles, currency wars are destroying emerging markets | Sunday Guardian - 0 views

www.sundayguardianlive.com/...re-destroying-emerging-markets

economy Fed Bank-of-England European-Central-Bank hdge-funds bubbles real-estate

shared by Paul Merrell on 31 Jan 17 - No Cached
  • as the out-of-control cabal of central banks inflated grotesque asset bubbles in global property, stock, and fixed-income markets? Or are we to believe traditional media’s “fake news” mantra of “it’s different this time?” Well, bad news, folks. It’s never different, not this time, not anytime, never.  Capitalism is being destroyed The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank have become gargantuan, out-of-control, rogue hedge funds. They are loaded with non-elected academics operating in opaque groupthink bubble chambers, repeating the broken Keynesian economic mantra of “whatever it takes, more debt is good”. They have magicked-up 100s of trillions in debt and guarantees, while the US Federal Reserve has gobbled up over 90% of the US mortgage market. Global stock market valuations are buoyed by stock buybacks, funded by record corporate debt, and enabled by reckless central bank zero-interest-rate policies. Pay no attention to the fact that in the past few years, US stock indices have surged over 70% to new all-time highs, while profits have only risen an anaemic 2%. Today’s record amount of corporate debt is cannibalising corporations, by bringing future earnings forward, which makes future stagnation and collapse into bankruptcy a certainty. For the near term, CEOs will continue to receive record pay packets for out-performing the market, as their stock prices bubble like a rocket ship into outer space, while these actions decimate any long-term growth prospects.
  • In 2005, preceding the credit crisis and the subsequent nationwide property price collapse, US Federal Reserve chairman, Dr Ben Bernanke was asked about risks associated with a dangerous subprime housing bubble that could destabilise the economy.  Bernanke stated that “I disagree with your premise. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilise: might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.” So, what led to history’s biggest financial crisis in 2006? Too much debt, credit, and leverage—proving that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke was dead wrong. What did we learn? Nothing, a big fat zero. In fact, property prices have recently eclipsed previous 2006 highs, bubbling to frothy new all-time highs, while real wages declined and high-paying jobs have disappeared. 
  • Real estate is an asset but not an asset class because it lacks liquidity. It takes time to sell property and the difference between what a buyer is willing to pay and what a seller is willing to sell for may be huge. For example, a buyer may be willing to pay $750,000, but the seller will only sell at $900,000. In good times, frenzied buyers create “bidding wars” on coveted properties, sometimes rocketing the price 30% above the original offer. This is terrific if you are a property owner or property seller, but not so much if you are a first-time buyer. In bad times, prices collapse and the only price a buyer is willing to pay for the $900,000 home above is $90,000. Great for buyers, but not so great for the owner, who holds a mortgage of $700,000 that must be repaid to a bank.  During these boom times, optimism bias creeps into the minds of buyers, allowing them to pay off the charts, wildly inflated, irrational prices for fear of “missing out”. Optimism bias is a cognitive bias that causes a person to (mistakenly) believe nothing negative could ever happen to them. It is a “close your eyes and buy at new all-time highs” belief system. If the prices collapse, the banks can require more capital. If you do not have more capital, the bank can take your property. If the government wants to increase your taxes, you must pay or they will confiscate your property. In fact, property confiscations are already happening in Greece and Italy.  Commercial and residential real estate are now grotesque asset bubbles ready to explode. 
Gary Edwards

The New Debt Deal: Why States Will Get Whacked & Musings on the Bush Tax Cuts - Budget ... - 0 views

nationalpriorities.org/...the-new-debt-deal

Banskters national-debt Budget-Control-Act-2011

shared by Gary Edwards on 05 Aug 11 - No Cached
  • Gary Edwards on 05 Aug 11
     
    excerpt: "Well friends it's August 3, and despite their best efforts Congress and the President did finally pass a deal to raise the debt-ceiling. It's call the Budget Control Act of 2011. Happy days, right? Not so fast, Fonzarelli. Nearly every lawmaker who voted for the bill has described it as the legislative equivalent of a '87 Buick Wagon: not pretty, but it'll get you to work. Here in the halls of the National Priorities Project we've been mulling over the details of the plan extensively, which you can read about here and here. After looking at this stuff for 2 straight days, my reaction to the Budget Control Act (debt deal) can summed up thusly: Picture of the statue of Liberty sticking out of the sand, from the last scene in the movie, "Planet of the Apes".  Caption "...we finally, really did it." In exchange for raising the debt-ceiling by an initial $900 billion, the bill calls for an immediate $917 billion in cuts through discretionary spending caps over the next 10 years.* Raising the debt-ceiling further - which will need to happen next year - is contingent upon further savings to be identified by a new bipartisan commission: the "Super Committee, or "Super Congress" it's being called. This group of 12 lawmakers (6 Democratic, 6 Republican Senators & Representatives) will have to identify another $1.2 - $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction measures by November 23, 2011. Congress will also be required to have an up-or-down vote on the recommendations by December 23, 2011. This means after the Super Committee makes its recommendations there will be no further discussion, debate, or filibustering. Just an aye-or-nay vote in each chamber of Congress.
Paul Merrell

US Tax Dollars up in Smoke Over Afghanistan - WhoWhatWhy - 0 views

whowhatwhy.org/...s-up-in-smoke-over-afghanistan

war & peace American-Foreign-Policy DoD waste Afghanistan

shared by Paul Merrell on 02 Nov 15 - No Cached
  • Want to meet a government official who tells the truth — in spades? Then you will definitely want to set aside time to hear of the stunning findings of the top US investigator for spending in Afghanistan.The biggest problem is not theft, but waste, he says. For example, the $500 million spent on airplanes that no one could fly, and that ultimately had to be scrapped, a process that cost yet more thousands of dollars. Or the gift of soybeans, which the Afghans will not eat and will not grow. Or how about the creation of a navy for Afghanistan — a country that is landlocked?The biggest source of the problem is the lack of accountability, he says. But that is changing.
  • Paul Merrell on 02 Nov 15
     
    Interesting podcast interview with the special inspector general for waste in Aftghanistan. Did you know that we paid for a navy for landlocked Afghanistan? Or that $500 billion worth of aircraft sent for use by  fghanistan were never flown because they were not airworthy? This short podcast is definitely worth listening to, even if you are a supporter of government waste.
Paul Merrell

Fossil fuels subsidised by $10m a minute, says IMF | Environment | The Guardian - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...a-minute-in-subsidies-says-imf

fossil-fuel-subsidies economy stats

shared by Paul Merrell on 14 Jun 15 - No Cached
  • Fossil fuel companies are benefitting from global subsidies of $5.3tn (£3.4tn) a year, equivalent to $10m a minute every day, according to a startling new estimate by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF calls the revelation “shocking” and says the figure is an “extremely robust” estimate of the true cost of fossil fuels. The $5.3tn subsidy estimated for 2015 is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments. The vast sum is largely due to polluters not paying the costs imposed on governments by the burning of coal, oil and gas. These include the harm caused to local populations by air pollution as well as to people across the globe affected by the floods, droughts and storms being driven by climate change.
  • Nicholas Stern, an eminent climate economist at the London School of Economics, said: “This very important analysis shatters the myth that fossil fuels are cheap by showing just how huge their real costs are. There is no justification for these enormous subsidies for fossil fuels, which distort markets and damages economies, particularly in poorer countries.” Lord Stern said that even the IMF’s vast subsidy figure was a significant underestimate: “A more complete estimate of the costs due to climate change would show the implicit subsidies for fossil fuels are much bigger even than this report suggests.”
  • The IMF, one of the world’s most respected financial institutions, said that ending subsidies for fossil fuels would cut global carbon emissions by 20%. That would be a giant step towards taming global warming, an issue on which the world has made little progress to date. Ending the subsidies would also slash the number of premature deaths from outdoor air pollution by 50% – about 1.6 million lives a year. Furthermore, the IMF said the resources freed by ending fossil fuel subsidies could be an economic “game-changer” for many countries, by driving economic growth and poverty reduction through greater investment in infrastructure, health and education and also by cutting taxes that restrict growth.
Paul Merrell

Portuguese Debt Crisis Brings New Trouble for Euro - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...n-way-to-ease-debt-crisis.html

portugal euro financial-collapse

shared by Paul Merrell on 10 Apr 13 - No Cached
  • Just weeks after European leaders tamped down a banking crisis in Cyprus, troubles in the euro zone have again reared their head, this time in Portugal.
  • “The risks in the euro zone have increased markedly over the past six weeks or so,” wrote Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, a London-based consultancy that assesses risk on sovereign debt. A critical moment for the latest trouble took place on Friday, when Portugal’s Constitutional Court struck down four of nine contested austerity measures that the government introduced as part of a 2013 budget that included about 5 billion euros, or $6.5 billion, of tax increases and spending cuts. The ruling left the government short about 1.4 billion euros of expected revenue, or more than one-fifth of the 2013 austerity package.
  • Specifically, the court, which began reviewing the legality of the government’s austerity measures in January, ruled as unconstitutional and discriminatory the government’s plans to cut holiday bonuses for civil servants and pensioners, as well as to reduce sick leave and unemployment benefits.
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