Nobody in Kiev is seriously thinking that they can occupy Donetsk or Lugansk or pacify the Donbass. Everybody is pretending otherwise, but that ain’t happening. Everybody in Kiev is fully aware of the fact that the Donbass is lost forever. So I will repeat this again: the real purpose of an attack will not be to ‘reconquer’ Novorussia, it will be to draw Russia into the Donbass. How?
Well, in theory, if the junta can launch enough men and armor to overwhelm the Novorussian defenses and if these forces succeed in surrounding Donetsk and Lugansk, Russia will really have no other option than to intervene. Of course, the Russians will easily defeat the Ukronazi forces, in 24 hours or less, but at that point the Nazi regime in Kiev will be saved: it will be able to declare full mobilization, blame every difficulty in Russia, crush any resistance with even more brutality than before and politically force all the US allies to provide aid to the regime in Kiev. The regime itself, by the way, would be safe as, contrary to the hopes of many, the Russians will not push much beyond the current line of contact. At most they will liberate Mariupol and or Slaviansk/Kramatrosk as a “penalty” for the Ukronazi attack. The junta in Kiev will remain safe, at least from the Russians.
The real danger for the junta does not come from the Russian military, but from the disillusioned and impoverished Ukrainian people with whom the regime will remain “one on one” unless the Russians intervene. And as long as this situation will remain like this, a Ukronazi attack will possibly at any moment. Starting right now.