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In this lesson, students explore the fundamental mathematical concepts underlying the spread of contagious diseases. Using a simple exponential model, students compare and contrast the effects of different transmission rates on a population and develop an understanding of the nature and characteristics of exponential growth. Students can then compare their projections with actual Ebola data from West Africa, to create context for analyzing the strengths and limitations of this simplified model.

This directed case study examines differences between the exponential and logistic growth models in biology and how they are applied to solve real life problems. The narrative follows a student returning to the United States as he tries to assess his possible exposure to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). To better understand his risk, James needs to get up to speed on a variety of topics including the difference between infection, transmission, virulence, etc., and how these topics can be mathematically modeled not only in relation to MERS, but also with respect to Ebola and influenza. This case was designed for use in the second semester of a biocalculus course or a course involving ordinary differential equations, which are appropriate for second year undergraduate students majoring in biology, pre-med, and bio-mathematics. These students typically have completed a semester of calculus and one year of general biology. The case provides an opportunity for students to develop their understanding of differential equations and increase their appreciation of mathematics as it applies to solving a problem of biology.

Lyme disease, Ebola and malaria all developed in animals before making the leap to infect humans. Predicting when such a 'zoonotic' disease will spark an outbreak remains difficult, but a new study suggests that artificial intelligence could give these efforts a boost. A computer model that incorporates machine learning can pinpoint, with 90% accuracy, rodent species that are known to harbour pathogens that can spread to humans, researchers report this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences1. The model also identified more than 150 species that are likely to be disease reservoirs but have yet to be confirmed as such.

West Africa was under the media spotlight this year-and rightly so after nearly 11,000 people died in the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded. But although the disease flickers in and out of the public consciousness, a new study shows that another killer was nearly as deadly: snakebites.

The United States is now experiencing what promises to be one of the worst outbreaks of measles since the virus was declared eliminated from the country in 2000.  It began in early January at Disneyland Resort in Anaheim, California, and has since spread to 14 states and infected 84 people, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Measles, caused by a paramyxovirus from the genus Morbillivirus, is one of the most contagious diseases in the world, infecting more than 90% of susceptible hosts that come in contact with an afflicted individual. In the absence of widespread vaccination, the average person with measles will infect an average of 12 to 18 other people; in contrast, Ebola is typically transmitted to 1.5 to 2.5 people.

Now eight years old, USAID PREDICT is a collaborative effort to monitor, predict and prevent emerging diseases, many of them zoonotic, from becoming devastating global pandemics the likes of Ebola. It's led by Jonna Mazet, an epidemiologist at the University of California at Davis's One Health Institute and School of Veterinary Medicine, and also partners with the Wildlife Conservation Society, Metabiota, EcoHealth Alliance and the Smithsonian Institution's Global Health Program.

The scientists are from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and they have embarked on this watery journey to solve a decades-old mystery about a rare and fatal disease: monkeypox. A cousin to the deadly smallpox virus, the monkeypox virus initially infects people through contact with wild animals and can then spread from person to person. The disease produces fever and a rash that often turns into painful lesions that can feel like cigarette burns. It kills up to 1 in 10 of its victims, similar to pneumonic plague, and is particularly dangerous in children. Monkeypox is on the U.S. government list of pathogens such as anthrax and Ebola with the greatest potential to threaten human health. There is no cure.