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Barack Obama and John McCain are promising voters a Tomorrowland of electric cars and high-speed trains and solar panels, a vision of American life without a drop of imported oil. But their plans to get there look more like Fantasyland. A host of energy policy experts agree that true "energy independence"-a key catch phrase of this presidential campaign-would be far more expensive and disruptive than either candidate is telling you.

Charles Hall, the father of the energy return on investment (EROI) concept, once told me that our current society would probably not be able to function if the EROI for the entire society slipped below five. What does that mean? First, a quick review. It takes energy to get energy. EROI is a measurement of how efficient a process, an enterprise or a society is in obtaining energy. EROI is usually expressed in a ratio, say, 20 to 1. That would mean that the process being studied produced 20 units of energy for every one unit expended. As it turns out, that's about what conventional crude oil returns.

What videos have you seen that you think others might be interested in? Here are a few I found:

The concept of peak oil started as a geological theory* that went like this: if you knew the amount of oil produced in the past, the rate at which it was produced, and roughly how much oil remained under the earth's surface, the theory could help you determine when oil production would likely start declining. Over the years however, proponents and critics alike recognized that more factors than just the size of oil resources and the ease of exploiting them would determine when world oil production would peak and plateau.

If Matt Simmons is right, the recent drop in crude prices is an illusion - and oil could be headed for the stratosphere. He's just hoping we can prevent civilization from imploding. Matt Simmons argues that Saudi Arabia's oil supplies are much more limited than everyone thinks. (Fortune Magazine) -- Matt Simmons is as perplexed as anyone that it has fallen to him to take on OPEC, Exxon, the Saudis, and all the other misguided defenders of conventional wisdom in the oil patch. Why should one investment banker with a penchant for research be required to point out what he regards as the obvious - that from here on out, oil supplies can't meet demand, and if we don't act soon to solve this crisis, World War III could be looming?

Oil Price Plunges from a Zenith In the first half of 2008 we saw oil climb to approach $150 a barrel amid the pundits' warning of oil rocketing to $200 a barrel and way beyond due to the phenomenon of Peak Oil. In the wake of those heady days we have now witnessed the slumping of oil prices to well under $100 a barrel into October. We have often heard that this is all within the context of declining oil supplies and escalating demand due to the rapid economic development taking hold in large regions and populations of earth, for example like in China and India, in addition to the maintenance of development in the more developed countries like the USA and Europe. The graph below illustrated this rise and fall of oil prices, and particularly the fall in prices from an all time zenith of a few months ago (Williams, 2008).

Drawing parallels with the current financial meltdown, Matthew Simmons, the CEO of Simmons & Company International, expresses his alarm about gasoline stocks being the lowest in several decades and refinery production down following recent hurricanes. He warns that if there were a run on the "energy bank" by everyone topping off their gasoline tanks, the U.S. would be out of fuel in three days, and grocery shelves largely emptied in a week. In an interview plus excerpts from his presentation at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-USA) conference on September 22, 2008, Matt highlights the risks and vulnerabilities in the finished oil products system, and answers audience questions.

Global oil production capacity will be insufficient within six years, according to Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency. Capacity will improve over the next two years, and ``after 2013, the situation is somewhat worrisome,'' Tanaka said today in Berlin. ``There is not enough capacity and we want to see much more expansion.''

Peak Oil will soon generate problems for individuals and families around the globe: unemployment; bankruptcy; inability to pay for heating oil, higher education, mortgage, and rent etc; the need for family members to share residences and expenses; violent street crime even in previously safe neighborhoods; the separation of family members (due to high airfares, the high cost of gasoline, or gasoline rationing); and anxiety and depression.

# The United States consumes nearly 21 million barrels of petroleum per day (7.5 billion barrels per year), one fourth the world total. (1) # Of the crude oil consumed in the U.S., 66 percent is imported. (2) # The U.S. is on pace to spend over $500 billion on petroleum imports in 2008. (3) # U.S. oil production currently occurs onshore in the lower 48 states (2.9 million barrels per day (mbd)), offshore (1.4 mbd, primarily in the Gulf of Mexico), and in Alaska (0.7 mbd). (4)

There are 98 oil producing countries in the world, which makes it seem as if we should have a lot of choices in our sources. However, 68 of those countries have, like the United States, passed peak production. 60 of them are in terminal decline. That means that the remaining 30 will have more, and more, and more control every single day that we continue to use oil. If we want to reduce our demand for foreign oil, there is exactly one way in which it can be done: use less oil.

One thing has been driving me crazy about this drilling debate - everyone seems to assume that if we drill for oil in the US, that we will get the oil. And hence, we won't be dependent on foreign oil anymore. But we won't get anything, Exxon-Mobil will. The oil that comes from that drilling will not be United States property (Republicans aren't suggesting we nationalize the oil companies, are they?). It will be the property of whichever oil company got the rights to that contract. They can then sell it to whoever they like - and they will. They will sell it on the world market, so the Chinese will have just as much access to the oil that comes out of the coast of Florida as we will.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Tuesday that a government interagency task force has found that the huge jump in oil prices is due to "supply and demand factors" and that speculators are not to blame for high fuel costs.

T. Boone Pickens is one of America's biggest independent oil producers, so he could be forgiven if he simply chose to sit back and pile up his profits. But the Texas entrepreneur is convinced that America must break its dependence on oil as a major source of energy, and has announced that over the next few weeks he is going to outline in the major media a plan for doing exactly that. He is right on the money, and I am going to listen carefully to what he has to say.

Of the 266 distinct nations or entities on the world today, nearly 100 are now reporting continuing energy shortages, mostly in the form of inadequate electricity supply, but in a growing number of cases, shortages of liquid fuels and natural gas. The actual number of countries affected is probably well over 100 but there are dozens of isolated island-states scattered around the world that are rarely heard from and are almost certainly suffering in silence while waiting for the next oil tanker to come in.

For the first time in history the human family as a single entity is faced with multiple global crises, each of which has far-reaching implications for the future of our species. These crises are not just the consequences of specific events or even systemic flaws in say the global economic architecture. They are related to fundamental values and deeply entrenched worldviews. The solutions to these crises may require an unprecedented paradigm shift --- a radical shift in the way in which we look at ourselves, at others, and at the planet that we inhabit.

Builder and author Shay Salomon finds that the happiest home builders are often the ones with the smallest houses. They're less costly to build and maintain, more likely to be finished, use fewer resources and help people simplify their lives. One version of "smaller" is to share a house, which can ease our loneliness while building our social network. Co-founder of the Small House Society, Shay notes that scaling down can enable a ratcheting up of our whole lifestyle, as we revalue quality over quantity. Declaring "Enough", she says, is the most ecological thing one can do.

Record high gas prices have been making the news headlines for the past few months. Each week gas prices top the previous week, resulting in a new all-time high. Unless you are fortunate enough to live, work and play within walking distance from your home, you have been affected by these high gas prices like the rest of the nation. While the public continues to be outraged about gas prices, some politicians (McCain, Bush, and Gingrich) are taking advantage of the dire situation by organizing a push to drill for oil along our coastlines and lift a 27-year moratorium.

The timing is extraordinarily appropriate, and not just because energy is the campaign issue of the week. The wave of Republican mockery currently assaulting Barack Obama's recommendation that Americans properly inflate their tires flows squarely within the tradition of scorn and derision that conservatives have heaped on Carter for decades -- in part because of his call for conservation and sacrifice in 1977.

I've been a Hubbert Schizophrenic for the past seven years. Perhaps you are one too - the diagnosis is easy. The principal symptom is the attempt by the patient to lead two lives, one involving the Peak and its consequences. One of those two lives is the "normal" one, and includes a future predicated on a series of uneventful jobs ending with a decent collection of pensions, and a house with a half acre of grass and the occasional bunch of dark purple iris at the borders, and plentiful ice creams for many Junes to come.