In my home turf of the oil market, all the signs are that in the absence of
massive new flows of quantitative easing dollars from the Federal Reserve,
and/or substantial cuts in oil production, especially from members of the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, there will be a collapse in
oil market prices in the first quarter of 2012. Indeed, some market
participants have already taken option positions in the oil market in
anticipation (or in fear) of a fall in the oil price as low as $45 per barrel
in 2012.