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That won’t happen.

None of these factors, however, can sustain strong growth past 2010 without a self-sustaining cycle of private spending and income growth. Several obstacles stand in the way of that transition. Through to mid-2009 households had lost $12 trillion, or 19% of their wealth, because of the collapse in house and stock prices. That saps their purchasing power and pushes them to save more, especially those nearing retirement. Though they’ll boost their saving only gradually, that still means consumer spending (about 70% of GDP) will grow more slowly than income, after two decades in which it usually grew more quickly. High unemployment will hold back wage gains (see chart); wage cuts are already commonplace. Leaving aside swings in energy prices, inflation, now about 1.5%, will slip to zero and may turn to deflation in late 2010. Deflation drives up real debt burdens, further sapping consumer spending.

The government won’t let any more big banks fail, but the survivors are neither inclined nor able to expand their lending much. Residential- and commercial-property values fell by $8 trillion, or almost 20%, through to mid-2009, impairing existing loans and eroding the collateral for new ones. Regulators are also proposing to raise capital requirements, which will further encourage bankers to turn down borrowers.

the rest of the world isn’t big or healthy enough, and a steeply falling dollar would inflict deflationary harm on others.

The list of roadblocks is depressing, but America will not slip back into recession or a lost decade akin to Japan’s in the 1990s. It did not enter its crisis with as much overinvestment as others, Japan in particular; its population is still growing (Japan’s is shrinking). It took two years to tackle its banks’ problems; Japan took seven. Boom times will be back. Just not very soon.