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Jérôme OLLIER

Study on international carbon emission quota allocation of shipping industry-based on f... - 0 views

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    In 2024, the EU intends to include the global shipping industry in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Shipping companies will have to pay for the carbon emissions of ships over 5,000 GT on routes between EU and non-EU ports. This paper selects typical shipping companies in the world. Based on the principle of fairness, historical method, baseline method and mixed method are adopted to explore their carbon emission quota allocation. The ZSG-DEA efficiency model is used to evaluate the distribution results and verify the optimal efficiency. The research results show that the mixed method has a high efficiency of allocation. The method predicts that the carbon quota of typical shipping companies in the world will reach the Pareto optimal allocation in 2024 and Maersk has the highest carbon emission quota among the eight typical shipping companies, reaching 32,431,800 tons, followed by MSC and EMC, reaching 8,542,400 tons and 6,809,500 tons, respectively. Based on the results, we can obtain a reasonable allocation of carbon allowances in the EU carbon market according to the proportion of business of shipping companies involved in EU routes. The research is still applicable to the allocation of carbon emmissions in future years. Therefore, this paper provides suggestions for the orderly allocation of carbon quota and carbon trading in the global shipping market.
Jérôme OLLIER

Biological testing of ships' ballast water indicates challenges for the implementation ... - 0 views

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    Ships' ballast water and sediments are vectors that contribute to the unintentional spread of aquatic non-native species globally. Ballast water management, as well as commissioning testing of ballast water management systems and compliance monitoring under the regulations of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) aim at minimizing the unwanted spread of organisms. This study compiles data for treated ballast water samples collected and analyzed from 228 ships during 2017-2023. The samples were collected from the ballast discharge line or directly from the ballast tank for enumeration of living organism concentrations in the categories of ≥50µm and ballast water should be undertaken to ensure that the systems remain operational after commissioning and ships meet requirements of the D-2 standard. Furthermore, the study
Jérôme OLLIER

Ship Strike Risk for Fin Whales (Balaenoptera physalus) Off the Garraf coast, Northwest... - 0 views

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    Ship strikes are a widespread conservation issue for many cetacean species globally. Population level impacts depend on the occurrence and severity of collisions, which may lead to life altering injuries or fatalities. Such impacts are a major concern for large, long-lived, and reproductively slow species like the fin whale. Since 2014, a seasonal feeding aggregation of fin whales has been monitored from February to June off the Catalan coast (Spain), in the northwest Mediterranean Sea. Oceanographical factors influence the occurrence and high density of krill within submarine canyons along the continental shelf, resulting in high whale abundance within a small spatial area. The study area extends 37 km offshore across a 1,944 km2 marine strip situated between the towns of Torredembarra and Castelldefels. This fin whale feeding ground is exposed to high density marine vessel traffic, given its location between the northern Mediterranean shipping lane, which links Barcelona and Tarragona Ports to the Atlantic Ocean and wider Mediterranean Basin. Ship strikes represent the greatest conservation threat for fin whales in the Mediterranean Sea. At least four fin whales have been found dead in Barcelona Port since 1986 due to ship strikes and seven live whales have been documented with injuries in the study area since 2018. Fin whale distribution was mapped with known high-risk marine vessels' (cargo, tanker and passenger vessels) shipping lanes. Vessel density and shipping lanes characterised by speed were considered. Collision risk was estimated monthly based on the predicted fin whale occurrence and traffic density. Several shipping lanes crossed the fin whale feeding habitat every month with an average speed of 15 kn. Cargo vessels displayed the highest ship-strike risk during April, overlapping with the peak of fin whale sightings in the critical feeding area. Slower vessel speeds (8 kn) in waters <200 m depth or along the continental shelf should be implemented al
Jérôme OLLIER

Carbon and cost accounting for liner shipping under the European Union Emission Trading... - 0 views

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    Excessive CO2 emissions and increased total costs of liner shipping are the two main problems affecting the environmental and economic benefits of liner companies under the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS). To address the upcoming EU ETS, we propose a carbon and cost accounting model for liner shipping that accurately calculates CO2 emissions and total cost of liner shipping. We conduct a case study that a containership operates on the liner route from the Far East to Northwest Europe. The results show that the sailing stage plays a pivotal role in CO2 emissions from liner shipping, accounting for 94.70% of CO2 emissions. Among four types of fuel, CO2 emissions from liner shipping using MGO is the largest, while CO2 emissions from liner shipping using methanol is the smallest. Methanol, as an alternative fuel, proves to be a better choice than LNG for CO2 control of liner shipping. The relationship between sailing speed and CO2 emissions follows a U-shaped curve for the selected containership. Notably, speed reduction is effective in carbon control of liner shipping only when the sailing speed exceeds 8.29 knots. Under the EU ETS, sailing speed is a key variable affecting the total cost of liner shipping. Speed reduction may not always be cost-effective. When keeping the total cost of liner shipping unchanged, sailing speed should be reduced as the EU allowance (EUA) price rises within a certain range. For the selected containership using MGO and HFO, the most economical sailing speed is 8.29 knots, corresponding to the increase in EUA price of 304.95% and 261.21%, respectively. If EUA price continues to rise, speed reduction will become ineffective in controlling the total cost of liner shipping. This model can enhance the environmental and economic benefits of liner companies, meet compliance requirements of the EU ETS, and provide a new perspective for carbon and cost control of liner shipping.
Jérôme OLLIER

A revised radiocarbon calibration curve 350-250 BCE impacts high-precision dating of th... - 0 views

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    The Kyrenia Ship, found off the north coast of Cyprus, is a key vessel in the history of scientific underwater excavations and in the history of Greek shipbuilding. The first volume of the site's final publication appeared in 2023 and provides detailed archaeological information tightly constraining the dating of the ship. A very specific date range is proposed: ca. 294-290 BCE, but is based on a less than certain reading of one coin recovered from the ship. While there is clear benefit to finding high-precision dates for the Kyrenia Ship and its rich assemblage using independent scientific dating (combined with Bayesian chronological modeling), efforts to do so proved more challenging and complex than initially anticipated. Strikingly, extensive radiocarbon dating on both wooden materials from the ship and on short-lived contents from the final use of the ship fail to offer dates using the IntCal20 calibration curve-the current Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon calibration curve at the time of writing-that correspond with the archaeological constraints. The issue rests with a segment of IntCal20 ca. 350-250 BCE reliant on legacy pre-AMS radiocarbon data. We therefore measured new known-age tree-ring samples 350-250 BCE, and, integrating another series of new known-age tree-ring data, we obtained a redefined and more accurate calibration record for the period 433-250 BCE. These new data permit a satisfactory dating solution for the ship and may even indicate a date that is a (very) few years more recent than current estimations. These new data in addition confirm and only very slightly modify the dating recently published for the Mazotos ship, another Greek merchant ship from the southern coast of Cyprus. Our work further investigated whether ship wood samples impregnated with a common preservative, polyethylene glycol (PEG), can be cleaned successfully, including a known-age test.
Jérôme OLLIER

The evaluation of government subsidy policies on carbon emissions in the port collectio... - 0 views

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    The collection and distribution network of ports is the main cause of carbon emissions. The carbon peak is a basic policy in China, and the subsidy policy is one of the common measures used by the government to incentivize carbon reduction. We analyzed the transportation methods and the flow direction of a port and proposed a carbon emission calculation method based on emission factors. Based on the transportation time and the cost, a generalized transportation utility function was constructed, and the logit model was used to analyze the impacts of subsidy policies on transportation, thus calculating the effects of the subsidies on carbon reduction. We used Guangzhou Port as a case study, and calculated the carbon reduction effects in six different subsidy policy scenarios and concluded that the absolute carbon reduction value was proportional to the subsidy intensity. In addition, we constructed a subsidy carbon reduction efficiency index and found that the Guangzhou Port collection and distribution network had higher subsidy carbon reduction efficiency in low-subsidy scenarios. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted on the subsidy parameters, and scenario 8 was found to have the highest subsidy carbon reduction efficiency. This achievement can provide decision support for the carbon emission strategy of the port collection and distribution network.
Jérôme OLLIER

Spatial-digital joint self-interference cancellation method for in-band full-duplex und... - 0 views

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    The in-band full-duplex underwater acoustic communication (IBFD-UWAC) mode has twice the information throughput of the traditional half-duplex communication mode, significantly increasing the communication efficiency. Extracting the weak desired signal from the high-power self-interference signal without distortion remains a challenging problem in implementing IBFD-UWAC systems. This paper proposes a spatial-digital joint self-interference cancellation (SDSIC) method for IBFD-UWAC. We first perform spatial self-interference cancellation (SSIC) and propose an improved wideband constant-beamwidth beamformer to overcome the problem of direction- and array-dependent interference in IBFD-UWAC systems. Convex optimization is used to maintain a constant beam response in the main flap and cancel the self-interference signal from a fixed direction, thus increasing the signal-to-interference ratio of the desired signal. Subsequently, we perform digital self-interference cancellation (DSIC) on the residual self-interference signal, and propose a variable-step-size least-mean-squares algorithm based on the spatial noise threshold. This algorithm modifies the least-mean-squares step-size adjustment criterion according to the noise level after SSIC and the desired signal, resulting in better DSIC. A series of simulations are implemented in a hardware-in-the-loop platform to verify the practicality and real-time performance of the proposed SDSIC method. The results show that the self-interference signal power can be reduced by 41.5 dB using the proposed method, an improvement of 13.5 dB over the conventional SIC method.
Jérôme OLLIER

Ship-to-ship maritime wireless channel modeling under various sea state conditions base... - 0 views

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    The propagation of electromagnetic waves on land and sea is significantly different. Although the Los scenario is significant in marine wireless communication, the marine wireless channel exists an obvious two-ray phenomenon due to the strong reflection path reflected through the sea surface. By modeling the measured data of marine wireless channels, this paper calculates the radio propagation characteristics of the Pearl River estuary. In addition, the wave fluctuations and high humidity environment will also impact the properties of the marine wireless channel. Therefore, sea surface morphology models under multiple wind speeds are built. To estimate the path loss in the same area under different conditions, the Monte Carlo method is employed to quantify the results. The simulation results show that the electric wave propagation gradually degenerated from the round earth loss (REL) model to the free space model with increasing wind speed. Moreover, the distribution of the shadow fading varies with distance. The findings provide references for the network planning of marine communication
Jérôme OLLIER

A mobile prototype-based localization approach using inertial navigation and acoustic t... - 0 views

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    During underwater operations, divers must determine their own trajectories using the Inertial Navigation System (INS) they carry to improve operational efficiency. However, the INS contains a sensor bias that is also incorporated into the quadratic integration process to obtain the displacement, resulting in trajectory drift of the divers during prolonged self-guidance. To overcome the above problem, other aids are needed to correct the accumulated error of the INS. The single-beacon Assisted Inertial Navigation (AIN) method can improve the flexibility of inertial error correction while simplifying the localization equipment, which is suitable for the INS cumulative error correction scenario of divers. However, most of the traditional single-beacon assisted correction methods do not consider the effect of acoustic line bending on hydroacoustic ranging, and at the same time, they do not consider the problem of singular or pathological coefficient matrices introduced by inertial navigation neighbor localization deviations. Based on the above two shortcomings, this paper uses the acoustic velocity profile for acoustic line tracking, combines the localization idea of Mobile Primitives (MP), and proposes an MP-based acoustic line tracking-Assisted Inertial Navigation Localization (AINL) method, which constructs a sliding time window (STW) by taking the historical positioning of divers as a virtual primitive, and combines the nonlinear optimization method for iterative optimization search as a means to improve the accuracy and stability of self-navigation of the divers.
Jérôme OLLIER

Quantifying Ship Strike Risk to Breeding Whales in a Multiple-Use Marine Park: The Grea... - 0 views

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    Spatial risk assessments are an effective management tool used in multiple-use marine parks to balance the needs for conservation of natural properties and to provide for varying socio-economic demands for development. The multiple-use Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) has recently experienced substantial increases in current and proposed port expansions and subsequent shipping. Globally, large whale populations are recovering from commercial whaling and ship strike is a significant threat to some populations and a potential welfare issue for others. Within the GBRMP, there is spatial conflict between the main breeding ground of the east Australian humpback whale population and the main inner shipping route that services several large natural resource export ports. The east coast humpback whale population is one of the largest humpback whale populations globally, exponentially increasing (11% per annum) close to the maximum potential rate and estimated to reach pre-exploitation population numbers in the next 4-5 years. We quantify the relative risk of ship strike to calving and mating humpback whales, with areas of highest relative risk coinciding with areas offshore of two major natural resource export ports. We found females with a dependent calf had a higher risk of ship strike compared to groups without a calf when standardized for group size and their inshore movement and coastal dependence later in the breeding season increases their overlap with shipping, although their lower relative abundance decreases risk. The formalization of a two-way shipping route has provided little change to risk and projected risk estimates indicate a three- to five-fold increase in risk to humpback whales from ship strike over the next 10 years. Currently, the whale Protection Area in the GBRMP does not cover the main mating and calving areas, whereas provisions within the legislation for establishment of a Special Management Area during the peak breeding season in high-ris
Jérôme OLLIER

Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Str... - 0 views

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    Assessments of ship-strike risk for large whales typically use a single year of ship traffic data and averaged predictions of species distributions. Consequently, they do not account for variability in ship traffic or species distributions. Variability could reduce the effectiveness of static management measures designed to mitigate ship-strike risk. We explore the consequences of interannual variability on ship-strike risk using multiple years of both ship traffic data and predicted fin, humpback, and blue whale distributions off California. Specifically, risk was estimated in four regions that are important for ship-strike risk management. We estimated risk by multiplying the predicted number of whales by the distance traveled by ships. To overcome the temporal mismatch between the available ship traffic and whale data, we classified the ship traffic data into nearshore and offshore traffic scenarios using the percentage of ship traffic traveling more than 24 nmi from the mainland coast, which was the boundary of a clean fuel rule implemented in 2009 that altered ship traffic patterns. We found that risk for fin and humpback whale populations off California increased as these species recovered from whaling. We also found that broad-scale, northward shifts in blue whale distributions throughout the North Pacific, likely in response to changes in oceanographic conditions, were associated with increased ship-strike risk off northern California. The magnitude of ship-strike risk for fin, humpback, and blue whales was influenced by the ship traffic scenarios. Interannual variability in predicted whale distributions also influenced the magnitude of ship-strike risk, but generally did not change whether the nearshore or offshore traffic scenario had higher risk. The consistency in the highest risk from the traffic scenarios likely occurred because areas containing the highest predicted number of whales were generally the same across years. The consistency in risk from th
Jérôme OLLIER

#coronavirus - Rapid Assessment of Seabed Habitats Around PITCAIRN Island in Aid of Act... - 0 views

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    The global COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 has forced small island states to make rapid changes to the way they manage their marine estates following changes in global shipping practices and access which are essential for the supply of food items and island's infrastructure. Following the closure of the border of neighboring French Polynesia, changes had to be made to the PITCAIRN Islands' sole supply vessel route, which resulted in the vessel requiring to set anchor on arrival at the island to conserve fuel. Considering this change and to ensure the continued protection of vulnerable coral habitats the local government has had to make swift decisions to identify anchoring zones that minimize seabed disturbance. Data collected in January 2020, just prior to the pandemic, were assessed using a rapid assessment method and combined with earth observation data to create the first shallow water (s pristine, marine habitats during these unprecedented times.
Jérôme OLLIER

Via @WhySharksMatter - Implementation of the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index: An ... - 0 views

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    For decades, the shipping sector has been incorporated into the global decarbonization process. At present, global shipping - as a whole - aims to reduce its emission levels by 40 % by 2030 in relation to the 2008 level. In reducing greenhouse gas emissions, regulations such as the MARPOL 73/78 Convention and Energy Efficiency Design Index as well as other monitoring and managing schemes already in operation (e.g., Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan and Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator) play a crucial role in measuring fuel consumption and ship engine emission output. Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) is another measure, projected to be ratified in 2023, in-line with decarbonization targets in which the International Maritime Organization has planned a 70 % reduction in emissions level by 2050 using the same 2008 baseline. For this to happen, ship speed may need to be reduced, a decrease of fleet capacity may also need to be considered, and new ships may need to replace older ones already in service. The costs of implementing these types of reforms are obviously significant to the sector. Such change will augment the overall shipping overhead, effecting subsequent transportation and consumer costs. This paper aims to specify the scale of the expected costs of implementing EEXI globally. The current maritime fleet has been analyzed in terms of energy demand, deadweight tonnage, and expected CO2 emission reduction marginal abatement costs (MAC). Two pathways to achieve the desired EEXI values are presented, including the most common and available technologies to reduce demand. These technologies are subjected to MAC valuation and presented quantitatively for the world fleet. The research also investigates alternative fuel options in regard to lessening the CO2 impact, developing wind support systems, and avoiding conventional advancements to ships (e.g., upgrading the propeller or the propulsion system). At length, the target of the work is t
Jérôme OLLIER

Policy-driven or market-driven? A new perspective on the development of China's cruise ... - 0 views

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    The past 15 years have witnessed the rapid development of China's cruise industry from scratch and the formation of a policy system in the cruise industry, reflecting the shift of the Chinese government's attitude towards the cruise industry from wait-and-see, recognition and encouragement to active support. The paper conducts a statistical analysis of 128 policies related to the cruise industry issued by China's administrative departments at all levels. It is found that the release of policies synchronizes with the development of the cruise industry, with each one providing feedback to the other. The policies do not exhibit a time lag with respect to their effects. The evolution of policy types from macro-level guidance to concrete operation is rapid, with the policy structure gradually improving. In line with current characteristics of the development of China's cruise industry, the themes of the policies concentrate on five areas: cruise tourism services and products, port construction and development, cruise industry chain expansion, cruise industry environment and cruise industry management. However, there is still a lack of adequate policies to support and guide the industrial upgrading of cruise operation and cruise construction and its green and low-carbon development. In addition, the paper points out the main directions of future policy formulation.
Jérôme OLLIER

Building the rule of law for maritime security in China: a domestic law perspective - @... - 0 views

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    Maritime security is an essential component of national security, and the effective maintenance of China's maritime security urgently needs a complete guarantee of the rule of law. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the construction of domestic law on maritime security has undergone three phases: slow development, formation and refinement. Although the rule of law in the seas has been constantly improved, it has provided essential safeguards for maintaining China's maritime sovereignty, security, and rights and interests. It has facilitated the development of maritime undertakings. However, it still faces problems such as the lack of an explicit constitutional basis, the law of the sea is not an independent departmental law, the absence of the fundamental law of the sea, the lack of operability of marine legislation, and the existence of some gaps in marine laws. Given the problems with the current domestic law on maritime security, it is necessary to make improvements in the following areas: adding marine provisions to the Constitution, formulating the fundamental law of the sea and other marine laws, improving local marine laws, and introducing implementing regulations.
Jérôme OLLIER

A Case Study of a Near Vessel Strike of a Blue Whale: Perceptual Cues and Fine-Scale As... - 0 views

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    Despite efforts to aid recovery, Eastern North Pacific blue whales faces numerous anthropogenic threats. These include behavioral disturbances and noise interference with communication, but also direct physical harm - notably injury and mortality from ship strikes. Factors leading to ship strikes are poorly understood, with virtually nothing known about the cues available to blue whales from nearby vessels, behavioral responses during close encounters, or how these events may contribute to subsequent responses. At what distance and received levels (RLs) of noise whales respond to potential collisions is difficult to observe. A unique case study of a close passage between a commercial vessel and a blue whale off Southern California is presented here. This whale was being closely monitored as part of another experiment after two suction-cup archival tags providing acoustic, depth, kinematic, and location data were attached to the whale. The calibrated, high-resolution data provided an opportunity to examine the sensory information available to the whale and its response during the close encounter. Complementary data streams from the whale and ship enabled a precise calculation of the distance and acoustic cues recorded on the tag when the whale initiated a behavioral response and shortly after at the closest point of approach (CPA). Immediately before the CPA, the whale aborted its ascent and remained at a depth sufficient to avoid being struck for ∼3 min until the ship passed. In this encounter, the whale may have responded to a combination of cues associated with the close proximity of the vessel to avoid a collision. Long-term photo-identification records indicate that this whale has a long sighting history in the region, with evidence of previous ship encounters. Therefore, experiential factors may have facilitated the avoidance of a collision. In some instances these factors may not be available, which may make some blue whales particularly susceptible to dea
Jérôme OLLIER

Analysis of international shipping emissions reduction policy and China's participation... - 0 views

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    In addressing climate change, the shipping industry, which is regarded as one sector that cannot be ignored in controlling greenhouse gas emissions, has become a key area of concern for the international community to achieve emissions reduction targets. The International Maritime Organization-the body that regulates international shipping-as well as the European Union and other international entities have adopted a series of emissions reduction policies, beginning a new era of shipping emissions reduction. In view of the urgency and complexity of this issue, the future policy direction of shipping emissions reduction and whether or not existing policies can achieve the emissions reduction targets have become the focus of attention in the global shipping industry. In addition, China's dual identity as a shipping magnate and a developing country plays a crucial role in the development of shipping emissions reduction trends, and reducing shipping emissions is necessary for China to achieve the "double carbon" commitment. In view of the above, this study endeavours to compare the current major shipping emission reduction policies from the perspective of international law and the perspective of macro policies, and analyze the future direction of international shipping emissions reduction policy. At the same time, the study identify China as one of the key countries to influence future policy making and proposes the position and path for China's participation in international shipping emissions reduction, which provided valuable contributions for China to participate in accelerating energy transformation, exploring participation in the carbon emission market, and promoting international unified shipping policy.
Jérôme OLLIER

The Worldwide Maritime Network of Container Shipping: Spatial Structure and Regional Dy... - 1 views

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    Port and maritime studies dealing with containerization have observed traffic concentration and dispersion throughout the world. Globalization, intermodal transportation, and technological revolutions in the shipping industry have resulted in both network extension and rationalization. However, lack of precise data on inter-port relations prevent the application of wide network theories to global maritime container networks, which are often examined through case studies of specific firms or regions. This paper presents an analysis of the global liner shipping network in 1996 and 2006, a period of rapid change in port hierarchies and liner service configurations. While it refers to literature on port system development, shipping networks, and port selection, it is one of the only analyses of the properties of the global container shipping network. The paper analyzes the relative position of ports in the global network through indicators of centrality. The results reveal a certain level of robustness in the global shipping network. While transhipment hub flows and gateway flows might slightly shift among nodes in the network, the network properties remain rather stable in terms of the main nodes polarizing the network and the overall structure of the system. Additionally, mapping the changing centrality of ports confirms the impacts of global trade and logistics shifts on the port hierarchy and indicates that changes are predominantly geographic.
Jérôme OLLIER

Evaluation of the Anti-fouling Efficacy of Bacillus licheniformis Extracts Under Enviro... - 0 views

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    There is an increasing interest in developing innovative coatings and testing natural products with anti-fouling activity to substitute current highly toxic biocides that have a harmful impact on marine organisms. Bacillus licheniformis species have shown different anti-biofilm and anti-fouling activities in vitro, but so far, its efficacy in field trials has not been tested. For this purpose, the capacity of different extracts of B. licheniformis NCTC 10341T to prevent micro and macro-fouling was first tested in vitro. The methanol cell extract (MCE) inhibited bacterial biofilm formation without significantly affecting planktonic growth and displayed a significant efficacy to prevent larval settlement of the macro-fouler Bugula neritina in vitro without inducing lethality. Additionally, the MCE presented low toxicity against the non-target species Artemia salina. The B. licheniformis MCE was then incorporated in a self-polishing paint at 2 and 5% w/w and tested in a static immersion experiment in the Gulf of Aqaba (northern Red Sea) for 180 days. Fouling coverage decreased by 30% in the 5% MCE-treated panels in comparison with the control panels. Differences in the anti-biofilm activity of the extracts depending on the culture medium highlight the importance of the strict control of culture conditions for the production of biomass with stable bioactive activity. The results indicate the potential of B. licheniformis NCTC 10341T crude extracts for environmentally friendly anti-fouling applications, although a deeper characterization of the bioactive compounds present in the B. licheniformis MCE and its mode of action is required to allow strict control of the activity of the extracts to achieve large-scale industrial production.
Jérôme OLLIER

Maritime greenhouse gas emission estimation and forecasting through AIS data analytics:... - 0 views

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    The escalating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from maritime trade present a serious environmental and biological threat. With increasing emission reduction initiatives, such as the European Union's incorporation of the maritime sector into the emissions trading system, both challenges and opportunities emerge for maritime transport and associated industries. To address these concerns, this study presents a model specifically designed for estimating and projecting the spatiotemporal GHG emission inventory of ships, particularly when dealing with incomplete automatic identification system datasets. In the computational aspect of the model, various data processing techniques are employed to rectify inaccuracies arising from incomplete or erroneous AIS data, including big data cleaning, ship trajectory aggregation, multi-source spatiotemporal data fusion and missing data complementation. Utilizing a bottom-up ship dynamic approach, the model generates a high-resolution GHG emission inventory. This inventory contains key attributes such as the types of ships emitting GHGs, the locations of these emissions, the time periods during which emissions occur, and emissions. For predictive analytics, the model utilizes temporal fusion transformers equipped with the attention mechanism to accurately forecast the critical emission parameters, including emission locations, time frames, and quantities. Focusing on the sea area around Tianjin port-a region characterized by high shipping activity-this study achieves fine-grained emission source tracking via detailed emission inventory calculations. Moreover, the prediction model achieves a promising loss function of approximately 0.15 under the optimal parameter configuration, obtaining a better result than recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM) in the comparative experiments. The proposed method allows for a comprehensive understanding of emission patterns across diverse vessel types under vari
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