Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration - 0 views
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Allen Rodger on 05 Apr 14Summary US households and businesses have accumulated enormous hoards of liquidity. The gradual normalization of risk aversion and liquidity preferences will drive a significant acceleration of spending growth. On aggregate, the balance sheets of consumers and businesses - and their liquidity position in particular - are the most favorable they have been in the past three decades. The average age of household consumer durables and US business capital stock is at a record high, suggesting that there is significant pent-up demand. A self-sustaining cycle of improved sentiment, accelerated spending and higher income seems to have already kicked off. In this report, I will briefly outline the impact of accelerated US growth on key investable asset classes, such as the S&P 500, 10Y US Treasury yields and gold. In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the recovery has been the weakest of any sustained economic expansion in US history. However, the US economy seems poised for a significant acceleration for the remainder of 2014. Consumer Spending To Accelerate Many analysts are still talking about "balance sheet recessions" and "household deleveraging." The problem is that was yesterday's news. After several years of restructuring, reduced spending growth, increased savings rates and debt-reduction, US household balance sheets are in better shape than they have been since the early to mid-1980s, based on a wide variety of metrics. Whether you look at debt service-to-income, debt-to-income, consumer loan delinquency rates, cash balances as a percent of income, or household net worth, the US consumer balance sheets are, on aggregate, in the best shape they have been in several decades. Business Expenditure There are several reasons to believe that the business expenditure cycle will accelerate appreciably in 2014. First, the age of US capital stock is at an all-time high, meaning that there is considerable pent-up demand to
