International Politics of the Middle East

constitution writing is a supremely political process. It is not carried out by philosopher kings but pushed through by real political forces playing a gritty political game. Despite what some of us may dimly remember from junior high school U.S. History, our process was no different. Constitutional kibitzing rarely finds an enthusiastic audience. After the initial election in the various Arab countries, the constitution will be the first test of the new balance of political forces -- and it will be the first real opportunity for them to discover not simply how to compete, but how to cooperate. Even more important than the text they produce, the patterns of interaction they establish as they draft will produce lasting patterns for politics. They need to keep their eyes on each other -- and that is precisely what they will do.

The U.S. experience, rich as it is, is very idiosyncratic. From a constitutional perspective, the United States is a marsupial: exotic and sometimes even cuddly, but also a product of a completely different evolutionary path.

Tunisia received its first constitution when France was an empire and Germany was not yet a state. Egypt has a long and rich tradition of constitutional experiments dating back almost as long. Much of that heritage is deeply troubled to be sure, but most Arab societies are full of people who already speak their own constitutional language

In their ambition at least, the Arab revolts and revolutions were about a positive sort of legitimacy: democracy, freedom, social justice and individual rights. They remain an unfulfilled promise, but no one in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya is really afraid to speak anymore. The cacophony that has ensued is the most liberating feature of rejuvenated societies. It already echoes in parts of Syria. When I was in Hama this summer, a city still scarred by memory and for a brief moment freed from security forces, youths embraced their new space by protesting every couple of hours in streets made kinetic by the allure of self-determination. They demonstrated simply because they could. In Homs, a city whose uprising could prove Syria’s demise or salvation, youths drawn from an eclectic array of leftists, liberals, nationalists, Islamists and the simply pissed-off articulated the essence of courage: They had come too far to go back.

I’m a person now

“We’re not waiting to live our lives until after the fall of the regime,” he went on. “We started living them the first day of the protests.”

the sixth such gathering hosted by Turkey in recent years

Tuesday's tri-lateral meeting is expected to be followed by a much larger gathering of top diplomats from Afghan neighbors such as China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Iran, as well as Russia, India, Germany and France.

"New Silk Road,"

I am frankly shocked that Eric Holder should have brought us this steaming crock, which is now being used to make policy at the highest levels. That a Mexican former drug runner being paid by the US taxpayers might have thought he could advance his career by playing mind games with a somewhat crazy Iranian expatriate is no surprise. That you could put fantastic schemes in Arbabsiar’s mind if you worked at it seems obvious. That anyone in the DOJ or the US foreign policy establishment would take all this seriously is not plausible. I conclude that they are being dishonest, and that this is Obama’s turn to wag the dog as he faces defeat at Romney’s well-manicured hands next year this time.

STEPHEN KINZER: The foreign minister by his own count has made 60 trips to Syria over the last seven or eight years, since he's been in office. That was enough to convince him that here Turkey and Syria had built a very strong relationship.So when the Syrian government began cracking down on demonstrators, the prime minister and the foreign minister called their friends in Syria and told them don't do this. We have got another idea for you. You've got to do it a different way and essentially the Syrians told them drop dead, we're not interested. We don't want to hear from you. This was a big shock for the Turks. Now they have essentially cut off their ties with Assad. They are fed up with him and I see the situation in Syria developing in a potentially very dangerous way. Syria has become the principle theatre where Iran and Turkey are facing off. Iran is supporting the regime, Turkey is supporting the protesters so that is almost the beginning of a proxy conflict between Turkey and Iran who in the long run are likely to become competitors for regional power anyway. The developments in Syria are most distressing and if there is one situation evolving in the Middle East that has the potential for really explosive trouble, it is what is happening in Syria right now.

Egyptian officials expressing alarm about a move by the U.S. Senate to link military aid to Egypt’s performance as a democracy. The Senate bill would withhold up to $1.3 billion in U.S. aid for 2012 until the secretary of state certifies that Egypt has held democratic elections and is protecting freedoms of the press, expression and association.

The Egyptians say that they will hold free elections but that the Senate measure sends a bad signal at a delicate time. The military is in power during the run-up to elections, a turbulent period that has included continued protests and an attack by demonstrators on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo.“If you insert new conditions, hinting at the fact the military aid might be touched in the future, this signals to the Egyptian military [that] the United States is not as solidly behind us as we think,” the Egyptian official said.

"I recommend the international community take the necessary lessons from the Preveza victory", Erdogan said. "Turkey's national interests in the seas reach from its surrounding waters to the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean."

President Abdullah Gul said the delivery of the ship showed that Turkey was now capable of developing its own weapons. He urged his country to make greater efforts to develop an independent arms capability, no matter how much work that might require.

TCG Heybeliada, is a 300-foot corvette that was designed with stealth technology and is equipped with an anti-ship missile system. It was built under Turkey's so-called MILGEM program, from the Turkish words "milli gemi" (national ship). More than 65 percent of the ship's components were built by Turkish companies

an overall feeling I have that the legal and political consequences of this initiative are in general being overstated.  Susan Rice has a point when saying that the consequences of the initiative on the ground are nil (though, in my view, that does not mean that the initiative is not worthwhile).  That said, already and at a minimum, the PLO has succeeded in putting the issue of Palestine at the top of the international agenda for UNGA Ministerial week.  This is no small achievement in a year that of such extraordinary events.

Despite the President's undertakings last year in his GA speech to support a 2-state solution based on exactly the parameters that everyone else agrees (with the exception of Israel), the US will be isolated at the UN in blocking the Palestinian initiative.  This will undoubtedly damage the US image in the Middle East in particular.  The desperate efforts by the US to stave off this diplomatic mess by getting Israel and the PLO to agree to talk again look unlikely to succeed in time.  If they do succeed, the initiative may, in a sense, have helped US efforts by forcing the issue to a head, and pressurizing Israel to the table (though the US would be loth to admit it).  But if they fail, as they appear likely to do, the fundamental weakness, if not to say bankruptcy, of US mediation efforts will be exposed in a very embarrassing fashion.  US arguments that the Palestinian initiative will damage the peace process are now treated with considerable and justifiable scepticism, as there is no substantive peace process to speak of, just lots of people (Quartet, Tony Blair etc) talking about a peace process.

note that it is the PLO that is leading this initiative, reflecting their traditional role as the international representative of the Palestinian people

would limit our ability to ensure that Iraq remains stable and free from significant foreign influence in the years to come

we are committed to four things: Protecting the rights and honor of the Turkish people, stopping Israel from disregarding international treaties and customs, implementation of Turkish demands through international tribunals, and ending the blockade on Gaza.

Adel Soliman, head of Cairo's International Centre for Future and Strategic Studies, also told Reuters that concerns about a Turkish-Egyptian alliance against Israel were overblown and that Erdogan is merely trying to fill Egypt's void as a regional leader."Egypt is not in a position to play such a role at the moment so Erdogan is trying to take advantage of that," Mr. Soliman said. "I don't think they will have any big agreements when it comes to Israel. There is a lot of exaggeration. I see it more as theatrics than anything practical."