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Posted at 11:35 AM ET, 08/19/2010 Forecasting hurricanes: Part 1 By Steve Tracton How good (or bad) are today's forecasts? * Sun & warmth: Full Forecast | Yesterday's rain totals * This is the first of a two-part series on hurricane forecasting. Part 1 details how reliable forecasts are expected to be when (and if?) the 2010 tropical season finally picks up steam. Part 2, to appear next week, will look at ongoing research into the development of tropical systems and the prospects for improved forecasts. Hurricane Fran, Sept. 5, 1996. Satellite image by NASA. As reported in an earlier post by CWG's Greg Postel, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest update of its 2010 seasonal hurricane forecast calls for a significant chance that the remainder of the season will be very active, perhaps one of the most active on record. Whatever the number of tropical storms and hurricanes -- collectively referred to here as tropical cyclones (TC) -- most seasonal hurricane forecasts justifiably caution that it's impossible to reliably forecast when and where an individual storm might develop, nor its intensity and whether it will make landfall, before a storm even exists. The specifics of genesis, strength, size and track of TCs fall in the domain of daily weather. As such, predictability is limited in theory and practice from a few hours to about a week or two at most (no one really knows for sure). These specifics, of course, are precisely those which are required by emergency managers who, for example, must decide if and when to order evacuations, and those which ultimately determine the impact of a TC on lives and property. So, what are the current capabilities and limitations in the accuracy and utility of TC forecasts? The foundation of the TC prediction and warning process is the track forecast. If the track forecast is off, so too will be predictions of other parameters, such as wind speed and direction, rainfall, and storm surge relative to landf

Book examines in a brilliant narrative the long-term and short-term causes, successful and unsuccessful responses to Hurricane Katrina along the U. S. Gulf Coast and in New Orleans.  Include a special focus on especially vulnerable populations. [Submitted by John Jordan]

STREVA is an innovative interdisciplinary project that aims to reduce the negative consequences of volcanic activity on people and assets. The project works collaboratively across different disciplines to develop and apply a practical and adaptable volcanic risk assessment framework.

A Tale of Two Floods Shows the Disaster Gap Between Rich and Poor Pakistan and Australia

video of the storm surge and changes during main storm event

Can we predict when and where quakes will strike?

Adjustments and Responses to Japan Earthquake

Chernobyl adjustments and responses

Evaluating Vulnerability in the 2011 Japan Earthquake and the 2010 Haiti Earthquak

Haiti earthquake - Adjustments and Responses

Submitted by Edwina Rimmington

""You have a very intense event hitting a very susceptible part of the world. It's that combination of nature and man," said MIT tropical meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel. "If one of those ingredients were missing, you wouldn't have a disaster.""

Site following the current activity of Alaska's Redoubt Volcano. If the volcano erupts it will impact the population core of Alaska throughout Southcentral Alaska including the Mat-Su Valley, Anchorage, and the Kenai Peninsula. The Alaska Volcano Observatory offers a number of photos, maps and trajectory graphs as well.

An earthquake has hit Los Angeles and Costa Rica leaving at least three people dead.

Economic Risk V's Disaster - Great resource for IB Hazards and Disasters module.