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Gene Ellis

Waiting for the Markets to Blink - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...-for-the-markets-to-blink.html

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  • “You get these occasional disconnects and start asking who’s right and who’s wrong,” said Daniel Morris, global investment strategist at TIAA-CREF.
  • “We think the equity market is right,” he said. “If that’s the case, bond yields are too low.”
  • “We’re constructive about the future and think all this intervention is going to work, but how much is priced in” to the stock market? So much, in his view, that “we’ve been selling into the strength,” he said.
  • ...13 more annotations...
  • “Do you believe that things are going to get better? If you do, you don’t want to be in Treasuries at 2.5 percent,” he said. “Some things don’t make sense to me. It’s frustrating.”
  • He says it doesn’t make sense that the stock market has held up as well as it has amid the Fed’s debt purchases and its policy of maintaining short-term interest rates near zero, a measure taken in a crisis that is supposed to be over.
  • “How do you know there has been an economic recovery and the patient is breathing normally when it’s in an oxygen tent?”
  • For all of 2013, gross domestic product increased by 1.9 percent, compared with 2.8 percent for 2012.
  • Orders and shipments of durable goods
  • were flat in 2013, and housing has weakened. February was the eighth consecutive month of declines in pending home sales, leaving them down 10.2 percent from 12 months earlier.
  • “It will be extremely difficult for the U.S. economy to escape its Great Recession hangover with this poor profits backdrop,” Mr. Edwards wrote. “Indeed it leaves the economy extremely vulnerable to adverse shocks,” like declining growth in Asia.
  • “We’re keeping a very close eye on China,” Ms. Patterson said. “If there are signs that it’s slowing more than we expect, that would hurt our view of emerging markets and worsen the outlook for developed markets due to contagion” because of the increasing importance of China in the global economy.
  • American real estate companies and European banks, for instance — but he is keeping 13 percent of his fund in cash because of a dearth of attractive investment choices.
  • Mr. Morris finds a wider array of opportunities. He likes shares of consumer-discretionary companies, which provide the products and services that people want but do not need. The sector includes businesses as diverse as hotels, carmakers and clothing stores.
  • the industrial sector, which includes manufacturers of business equipment. Another preferred segment is banks; he expects them to flourish as interest rates rise and the gap widens between what they charge in interest and what they pay.
  • Mr. Morris encourages stock investors to buy American.
  • “You can’t just unwind quantitative easing, with all of its distortions, and achieve stability without some pain along the way,” he warned. “What that pain is, when it happens, that’s where the uncertainties lie. The margin to maneuver is getting less and less with the passage of time.”
Gene Ellis

Mario Draghi's 'whatever it takes' may not be enough for the euro - FT.com - 0 views

www.ft.com/...3d-11e3-b44a-00144feabdc0.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 19 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • Last updated: April 7, 2014 7:11 pm Mario Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ may not be enough for the euro
Gene Ellis

Automation Alone Isn't Killing Jobs - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...n-alone-isnt-killing-jobs.html

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  • Automation Alone Isn’t Killing Jobs
Gene Ellis

Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market? - 0 views

www.brookings.edu/...nemployed-margins-labor-market

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  • Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?
Gene Ellis

Russia puts squeeze on Ukraine, jacks up natural gas prices 40 percent - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

www.csmonitor.com/...-natural-gas-prices-40-percent

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  • Russia puts squeeze on Ukraine, jacks up natural gas prices 40 percent
  • On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund threw a financial lifeline, agreeing to stump up $14-18 billion as part of a two-year bailout package in exchange for tough economic reforms.
  • Russia's milk union has asked for a ban on Ukrainian dairy products
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  • Russia accounts for 13 percent of Ukraine's iron and steel exports, and the political crisis has already hit shipments from Ukrainian steelmakers this year.
  • Sales of rebar - a steel bar or mesh of steel wires used in reinforced concrete - to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a bloc of former Soviet states, fell 70 percent to 45,000 tonnes in January compared with the average monthly export figure in the first half of 2013.Russian steelmakers have aggressively lobbied their government to implement measures to defend domestic producers from Ukrainian imports.
  • Tough competition on the international steel market makes the chance of (steelmakers) expanding their export market presence very low," Eavex Capital metals analyst Ivan Dzvinka said in Kiev
  • Manufacturers of train carts and turbo engines, which together account for 2.5 percent of Ukraine's total exports, will be hit particularly hard.
  • "Re-orienting these industries to Europe would be nearly impossible without very heavy investment,
  • "The point of the FTA is not to make it possible for Ukraine to export Soviet-era tractors to Europe. That's not going to happen. But it could eventually lead to Ukraine becoming a producer of Peugeots, Volkswagens, fridges or Nokia telephones," the EUISS's Popescu said.
Gene Ellis

Senate Report Says Caterpillar Used Swiss Subsidiary to Reduce Taxes - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...-swiss-unit-to-pare-taxes.html

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  • Senate Report Says Caterpillar Used Swiss Subsidiary to Reduce Taxes
Gene Ellis

Manufacturing the future: The next era of global growth and innovation | McKinsey & Com... - 0 views

www.mckinsey.com/...the_future_of_manufacturing

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  • Manufacturing the future: The next era of global growth and innovation
Gene Ellis

Ten IT-enabled business trends for the decade ahead | McKinsey & Company - 0 views

www.mckinsey.com/...ss_trends_for_the_decade_ahead

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  • Ten IT-enabled business trends for the decade ahead
Gene Ellis

Wind Industry's New Technologies Are Helping It Compete on Price - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...lping-it-compete-on-price.html

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  • Wind Industry’s New Technologies Are Helping It Compete on Price
Gene Ellis

Trade: More homework, please | The Economist - 0 views

www.economist.com/...trade

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  • Trade More homework, please
Gene Ellis

Busy, but Wary, in Europe's Steel Industry - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...in-europes-steel-industry.html

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  • Busy, but Wary, in Europe’s Steel Industry
Gene Ellis

The Economist explains: Why airlines make such meagre profits | The Economist - 0 views

www.economist.com/...economist-explains-5

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  • Why airlines make such meagre profits
  • In those six decades passenger kilometres (the number of flyers multiplied by the distance they travel) have gone from almost zero to more than 5 trillion a year. But though the industry has done much to connect the world, it has done little to line the pockets of the airlines themselves. Despite incredible growth, airlines have not come close to returning the cost of capital, with profit margins of less than 1% on average over that period. In 2012 they made profits of only $4 for every passenger carried. Why has a booming business failed to prosper?
  • Airlines were state-owned beasts in receipt of juicy handouts from state coffers. These “flag carriers” were regarded as important strategic businesses with monopoly powers that conferred national pride and international prestige. But they rapidly turned into bloated nationalised industries that regarded profit as a dirty word.
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  • Air travel was governed by inter-governmental deals that dictated which airlines could fly where, how many seats they could offer and, in many cases, what fares they could charge. The result was inefficiency and losses.
  • Low-cost carriers, such as SouthWest and Ryanair, introduced cut-throat rivalry on short-haul routes. Former flag-carriers struggled with the legacy of older fleets, large networks, uppity unionised workforces and vast pension liabilities. Low-cost carriers devastated their model of feeding short-haul passengers onto more lucrative long-haul services.
  • As well as stiff competition from their rivals, airlines face the problem that there is little competition in the industries that supply them. Two firms—Airbus and Boeing—provide the majority of the planes, and airports and air-traffic control are monopolies
Gene Ellis

No Big Deal - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...krugman-no-big-deal.html

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  • No Big Deal
  • Basically, old-fashioned trade deals are a victim of their own success: there just isn’t much more protectionism to eliminate.
  • Implicit protection of services — rules and regulations that have the effect of, say, blocking foreign competition in insurance — surely impose additional costs.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • What they’re really about, in particular, is property rights — things like the ability to enforce patents on drugs and copyrights on movies.
  • What the T.P.P. would do, however, is increase the ability of certain corporations to assert control over intellectual property. Again, think drug patents and movie rights.
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