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Gene Ellis

UPDATE 1-Suffering Greece's economy shrank again at end of last year | Reuters - 0 views

www.reuters.com/...eece-gdp-idUSL6N0C35ZM20130311

update greece economy

shared by Gene Ellis on 11 Mar 13 - No Cached
  • ATHENS, March 11 (Reuters) - Greece's economy shrank at an annual 5.7 percent in the last quarter of 2012, combining for a 20 percent slump in real terms since 2008.
  • It would have been worse but for a 17.5 percent drop in the country's fourth quarter trade gap, the country's statistics service ELSTAT said on Monday
Gene Ellis

Even Greece Exports Rise in Europe's 11% Jobless Recovery - Bloomberg - 0 views

www.bloomberg.com/...ope-s-11-jobless-recovery.html

undefined greece exports rise europe recovery bloomberg

shared by Gene Ellis on 21 Mar 13 - No Cached
  • “The current- account deficits of countries that have been under stress diminished over the last years considerably.”
  • Just two of 14 euro-zone government leaders have kept their posts in elections since late 2009 and extremists such as Golden Dawn in Greece are gaining support.
  • “The internal rebalancing in the euro area is progressing,” said Fels. “Some of them, especially Spain but also Portugal not to speak of Ireland, are regaining competitiveness.”
  • ...18 more annotations...
    • Gene Ellis
      Gene Ellis on 21 Mar 13
       
      This is the same sort of response which companies would have made to a depreciation in the local currency without the euro, but with the added problem of deflationary effects on the rest of the economy.
  • Ford Motor Co. (F) (F) said at the end of last year it will increase capacity near Valencia as it shuts plants in the U.K. and Belgium.
  • While a slide in imports accounts for some of the correction, Greece boosted its exports outside the EU by about 30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 from the previous year, while Italy’s rose 13 percent in January from a year ago, he said.
  • In Ireland, U.S. companies such as EBay Inc (EBAY) (EBAY)., Google Inc. (GOOG) (GOOG) and Facebook Inc (FB). all have expanded in the past two years, taking advantage of a corporate-tax rate of just 12.5 percent compared to Spain’s 30 percent.
    • Gene Ellis
      Gene Ellis on 21 Mar 13
       
      'Beggar thy neighbor' kinds of effects.
  • The metamorphosis is known as internal devaluation
  • Prevented by membership of the euro from driving down currencies, governments and companies are squeezing labor costs to spur productivity.
  • reducing social- security payments
  • aising the retirement age, making it easier to fire workers in downturns and preventing unions from clinging to boom-time wage deals.
  • On average, the periphery is about halfway to eliminating large structural current-account deficits, which allow for declines related to recession-driven weaker import demand, estimates Goldman Sachs (GS).
  • The OECD today published an index showing that relative labor costs in Spain and Portugal have now dropped below Germany’s for the first time since 2005.
  • “It’s potentially good for the economy but only if it results in faster investment,”
  • “If not then there’s a downward spiral risk.”
    • Gene Ellis
      Gene Ellis on 21 Mar 13
       
      An important point.
  • The smaller trade imbalances really reflect a collapse in demand for imports as consumers and companies hunker down,
  • It’s the mirror image of the euro’s first decade, when historically low interest rates in the periphery fueled inflationary spending booms, reflected in credit bubbles and deteriorating current accounts and government budgets.
  • “At this stage it is still demand destruction which has helped current-account deficit countries balance their accounts,” said Mayer. “It’s not a healthy situation.”
  • They also say countries will need to run even healthier current accounts than now if they are to stabilize the debts they owe abroad.
  • Gene Ellis on 21 Mar 13
     
    Good update article, as of March, 2013.
Gene Ellis

Ukraine: Running in Place | Open Society Foundations (OSF) - 0 views

www.opensocietyfoundations.org/...ukraine-running-place

shared by Gene Ellis on 05 Feb 14 - No Cached
  • Ukraine: Running in Place
  • Corruption is simultaneously a cause and symptom of this situation. According to Transparency International’s 2008 Global Corruption Report, higher education is widely considered one of the most corrupt spheres in Ukrainian life. The report cites a survey conducted the previous year by Management Systems International and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in which 47.3 percent of respondents said a bribe was demanded up front in their dealings with universities, while 29 percent said they gave a bribe on their own initiative.
  • Many teachers, from the primary to the university level, received their formal education 10 or 20 years ago and have not updated their qualifications since. There is no movement to force teachers at any level to update their skills.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • “The Ukrainian education system has retained its Soviet shape,” Kasianov said. “It worked in a mono-ideological system with a centralized economic and social system. But now it is outdated. It needs to be reformed to meet the needs of a mobile market economy, a globalized world, and a fluid society.”
Gene Ellis

UPDATE: European stocks might enter the sweet spot in 2015 - 0 views

news.morningstar.com/...ViewNews.aspx

shared by Gene Ellis on 05 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • UPDATE: European stocks might enter the sweet spot in 2015
Gene Ellis

Statistics in Africa: Making Africa count | The Economist - 0 views

www.economist.com/...statistics-africa

GDP accounting Nigeria Ghana

shared by Gene Ellis on 09 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • IN 2013 Nigeria’s GDP could increase by 40%, which would be impressive even by Africa’s recent bouncy growth standards. The rise will come not from a surge in economic activity but because the country is rejigging the way it calculates its accounts.
  • But the new figures may owe as much to political calculation as to hard-nosed statisticians
  • Nigeria’s real GDP is based on 1990 prices. It plans to update them to ones from 2008. Ghana did the same in 2010, revising its base year from 1996 to 2006. Its GDP shot up by 60%, propelling it overnight from being a poor to middle-income country, defined by the IMF as having a GDP per person of at least $1,026 a year.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • In 2005 its government brought in fertiliser subsidies. It reported a maize crop of 3.4m tonnes in 2006-7, up from 2.6m tonnes the year before. The aid lobby said this justified the subsidies and the budget support which enables them to be paid for.
  • But figures released in 2010, disputed by Malawi’s ministry of agriculture, suggest that the harvest was only 2.1m tonnes. If maize production had risen as much as claimed, Malawians should have have had a surplus of maize and prices should have dropped. That did not happen, says Mr Jerven.
Gene Ellis

A Multibillion-Dollar Question for Airbus and Its A330 - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...n-for-airbus-and-its-a330.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 05 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • A Multibillion-Dollar Question for Airbus and Its A330
  • While the A330 continues to generate around 40 percent of Airbus’s civilian aircraft profits, new orders for the plane have slowed significantly in recent years.
  • But with the wait times to receive new planes now stretching to more than six years, airlines have been slower to reach for their checkbooks.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • Analysts say a revamped A330 would probably not be able to compete with the fuel economy of Boeing’s three-year-old 787 Dreamliner or with the updated 777, which in addition to new engines will have lighter wings made of carbon fiber instead of aluminum.
  • A more attractive price tag, combined with earlier availability — analysts say a revamped A330 could be ready for service in four years — would probably attract a wide range of customers.
  • Still, a revamped A330 would burn around 15 percent more fuel than its newer competitors, meaning that it could be a tough sell, even at a discount.
  • "Will you end up selling any more than you would have if you stuck with the old version and cut the price?” asked Mr. Cunningham, the London analyst. He noted that the current low interest-rate environment was already reducing customers’ sensitivity to list price, while the recent instability in the Middle East was refocusing attention on the risk of rising oil prices.
  • “There is much more fragmentation” of the wide-body jet market, Mr. Lasou said. “Each aircraft type is covering a smaller range of routes. The market is becoming much more specialized.”
Gene Ellis

Mario Draghi's 'whatever it takes' may not be enough for the euro - FT.com - 0 views

www.ft.com/...3d-11e3-b44a-00144feabdc0.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 19 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • Last updated: April 7, 2014 7:11 pm Mario Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ may not be enough for the euro
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