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Gene Ellis

A Dwindling Army Tempts New Recruits With a Charm Offensive - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Much to the consternation of Washington, no European country comes anywhere close to matching the United States in military spending. That includes Germany, whose defense budget of about $44 billion amounts to about 1.3 percent of its gross domestic product, compared with over 4 percent for the United States.
Gene Ellis

Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380 - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • this aircraft, which can hold more than 500 passengers. The plane dwarfs every commercial jet in the skies.
  • Its two full-length decks total 6,000 square feet, 50 percent more than the original jumbo jet, the Boeing 747.
  • The A380 was also Airbus’s answer to a problematic trend: More and more passengers meant more flights and increasingly congested tarmacs. Airbus figured that the future of air travel belonged to big planes flying between major hubs.
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  • Airbus has struggled to sell the planes. Orders have been slow, and not a single buyer has been found in the United States, South America, Africa or India.
  • While the A380 program has been a boon for the European aerospace industry, Airbus is unlikely to recover its research and development costs. The best it can now expect is to break even on production costs, according to analysts, provided that it can keep orders going.
  • Airbus made the wrong prediction about travel preferences. People would rather take direct flights on smaller airplanes, he said, than get on big airplanes — no matter their feats of engineering — that make connections through huge hubs.
  • “It’s a commercial disaster,” Mr. Aboulafia says. “Every conceivably bad idea that anyone’s ever had about the aviation industry is embodied in this airplane.”
  • Airline executives were wary of expanding their fleets aggressively, especially for a costly, four-engine fuel hog.
  • A little more than a decade ago, the two dominant airplane makers, Boeing and Airbus, looked at where their businesses were headed and saw similar facts: air traffic doubling every 15 years, estimates that the number of travelers would hit four billion by 2030 — and came to radically different conclusions about what those numbers meant for their future.
  • “The A380 is not made for every route, but it is ideal for high-traffic routes, high-volume routes that are congested, or where there are flying constraints,”
  • And there are a fair number of those routes. Around 15 of the 20 largest long-haul routes by passenger volume in the world today are slot-constrained,
  • Boeing, too, is facing lukewarm demand for its latest jumbo jet upgrade, known as the 747-8. The company has received just 51 orders for this big plane, which can seat about 460 passengers and lists at $357 million. By contrast, it has sold more than 1,200 twin-engine 777s, which sell for as much as $320 million.
  • Richard H. Anderson, Delta’s chief executive, has said the A380 is “by definition an uneconomic airplane unless you’re a state-owned enterprise with subsidies.”
  • Bruno Delile, Air France’s senior vice president for fleet management, says that there are a limited number of routes in its network with enough daily traffic to justify the expense of such a big plane. “The forecasts about traffic growth and market saturation haven’t exactly panned out,” he says.
  • Not only do airlines take a big risk on the size and cost of the A380, but they also have to gain the cooperation of airports to modify gates and widen taxiways to make room for the plane.
  • With versions that seat 210 to 330 passengers, and with a range of about 9,000 miles, the 787 allows airlines to fly pretty much anywhere in the world and connect smaller airports without going through a hub.
  • And passengers are willing to pay more to avoid a connection
  • f most airlines appear skeptical of the A380, Emirates is a true believer. It stunned the industry in December when it ordered 50 more of the planes, beyond the 90 it already had on order, throwing Airbus a much needed lifeline
  • The airport handled 66 million passengers last year, rivaling Heathrow as the busiest international hub.
  • for Emirates, the biggest selling point of the A380 is its ability to pack in more business-class seats and create an environment that appeals to big-spending passengers.
Gene Ellis

A Driving School in France Hits a Wall of Regulations - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • The other driving schools have sued them, saying their innovations break the rules.
  • partly because getting a driver’s license here is so difficult and expensive that it has inspired books on the subject,
  • their struggle highlights how the myriad rules governing driving schools — and 36 other highly regulated professions — stifle competition and inflate prices in France.
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  • In the case of driving schools, the government offers only a limited number of exams each year, and these are doled out to the driving schools depending on their success rate the year before. That fact alone gives the old guard a virtual monopoly,
  • calling for an overhaul of the written test, which he says goes far beyond making sure that a person knows the rules of the road.
  • Some studies have concluded that the French are probably paying 20 percent more than they should for the services they get from regulated professions, which include notaries, lawyers, bailiffs, ambulance drivers, court clerks, driving instructors and more.
  • The failure rate for the French driving exam is about 41 percent, the government office for road safety said. The cost to the economy goes beyond the embarrassment of those who fail, according to those who have studied it.
  • barriers to getting a license are so high that about one million French people, who should have licenses, have never been able to get them.
  • Mr. Kramarz said that it often costs 3,000 euros, or about $3,900, to get a license. But others said the average was closer to 1,500 to 2,000 euros.
  • Although students are required to take only 20 hours of driving lessons, most end up doing double that while they wait for a chance to take the test.
Gene Ellis

Europe's Farmers Feel the Weight of Russian Ban - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Europe’s Farmers Feel the Weight of Russian Ban
  • For Fromi Rungis, Russia accounted for 10 percent of its foreign sales.
Gene Ellis

Russia Responds to Western Sanctions With Import Bans of Its Own - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Russia Responds to Western Sanctions With Import Bans of Its Own
Gene Ellis

Nouriel Roubini maps out the Kremlin's plan for a re-divided world. - Project Syndicate - 0 views

  • Russia’s goal is not to create another North American Free Trade Agreement; it is to create another EU, with the Kremlin holding all of the real levers of power.
  • And, once members give up their sovereignty over fiscal, banking, and economic affairs, they may eventually need a partial political union to ensure democratic legitimacy.
  • But the first step is a customs union, and, in the case of the Eurasian Union, it had to include Ukraine, Russia’s largest neighbor to the west.
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  • There is even talk of Russia and China creating an alternative international payment system to replace the SWIFT system, which the US and Europe can use to impose financial sanctions against Russia.
  • But Putin is ambitious, and – like other autocrats in Central Asian nations – he may remain in power for decades to come. And, like it or not, even a Russia that lacks the dynamism needed to succeed in manufacturing and the industries of the future will remain a commodity-producing
  • superpower.
  • US President Barack Obama says that this is not the beginning of a new Cold War; current trends may soon suggest otherwise.
Gene Ellis

Beijing's Bad Air Would Be Step Up for Smoggy Delhi - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Beijing’s Bad Air Would Be Step Up for Smoggy Delhi
Gene Ellis

Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • The cost of shipping a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the United States has risen to $8,000, compared with $3,000 early in the decade, according to a recent study of transportation costs. Big container ships, the pack mules of the 21st-century economy, have shaved their top speed by nearly 20 percent to save on fuel costs, substantially slowing shipping times.
  • Jeffrey E. Garten, the author of “World View: Global Strategies for the New Economy” and a former dean of the Yale School of Management, said that companies “cannot take a risk that the just-in-time system won’t function, because the whole global trading system is based on that notion.” As a result, he said, “they are going to have to have redundancies in the supply chain, like more warehousing and multiple sources of supply and even production.”
  • In a more regionalized trading world, economists say, China would probably end up buying more of the iron ore it needs from Australia and less from Brazil, and farming out an even greater proportion of its manufacturing work to places like Vietnam and Thailand.
Gene Ellis

World - Slide Show - China's Investment in Africa Comes With a Price - 0 views

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Gene Ellis

China Exports Pollution to U.S., Study Finds - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • “We’re focusing on the trade impact,” said Mr. Lin, a professor in the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at Peking University’s School of Physics. “Trade changes the location of production and thus affects emissions.”
  • “Dust, ozone and carbon can accumulate in valleys and basins in California and other Western states,” the statement said.Black carbon is a particular problem because rain does not wash it out of the atmosphere, so it persists across long distances, the statement said. Black carbon is linked to asthma, cancer, emphysema, and heart and lung disease.
  • The study’s scientists also looked at the impact of China’s export industries on its own air quality. They estimated that in 2006, China’s exporting of goods to the United States was responsible for 7.4 percent of production-based Chinese emissions for sulfur dioxide, 5.7 percent for nitrogen oxides, 3.6 percent for black carbon and 4.6 percent for carbon monoxide.
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  • The scholars who gave emissions estimates for China’s export industries, a significant part of the country’s economy, looked at data from 42 sectors that are direct or indirect contributors to emissions. They included steel and cement production, power generation and transportation. Coal-burning factories were the biggest sources of pollutants and greenhouse gases, which contribute to global warming.
    • Gene Ellis
       
      Note:  here they have used input-output coefficients of sectors to calculate the effects...
  • In Japan, for instance, an environmental engineer has attributed a mysterious pestilence that is killing trees on Yakushima Island to pollutants from China.
  • Exports accounted for 24.1 percent of China’s entire economic output last year, down sharply from a peak of 35 percent in 2007, before the global financial crisis began to weaken overseas demand even as China’s domestic economy continued to grow.
  • But the proportion of China’s exports that are made in China has risen steadily in recent years as many companies move more of their supply chains, instead of just having final assembly work done here.
Gene Ellis

Apple's iPhone 6 Gives World Tech Hub Taiwan Just A Small Bite - Forbes - 0 views

  • Apple's iPhone 6 Gives World Tech Hub Taiwan Just A Small Bite
Gene Ellis

Kiev Struggles to Break Russia's Grip on Gas Flow - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Kiev Struggles to Break Russia’s Grip on Gas Flow
Gene Ellis

Traffic Snarls Expected in Europe as Taxi Drivers Protest Against Uber - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Traffic Snarls Expected in Europe as Taxi Drivers Protest Against Uber
  • Several of Europe’s largest cities were snarled by traffic jams on Wednesday when thousands of taxi drivers blocked roads and held rallies in protest of ​an upstart​ American​ service that lets customers book rides through smartphones.
  • Founded in 2009
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  • Before the protest in London, Uber said on Wednesday that it had opened up its booking platform so that the city’s black taxis, which previously were not included in the start-up’s system, could now take bookings through the smartphone app.
  • Europe’s taxi operators will demand that local lawmakers clamp down on the California-based Uber, which now operates in 100 cities in 36 countries.
  • “In Paris, the number of taxis hasn’t changed since the 1950s,” said Pierre-Dimitry Gore-Coty, Uber’s regional general manager for Northern Europe. “The strikes are an attempt to desperately fight against competition in the market.”
  • France has been one of Uber’s toughest battlegrounds. Faced with protests by the powerful local taxi industry, which has been closed to competition for decades, the government in December sought to curb the rise of Uber and rival upstarts by forcing the car services to wait 15 minutes after receiving a request before picking up a client.
  • They also say the company’s technology, which allows drivers to ​use a smartphone-like device to ​calculate fares based on time and distance, breaks local laws. The city’s authorities have asked a local court to rule on that issue.
  • Partly, London taxi drivers resent the idea of G.P.S.-equipped freelancers presuming to practice their time-honored craft.
Gene Ellis

Citi Cuts Costa Rica Growth Forecast After Firings - Bloomberg - 0 views

  • Citi Cuts Costa Rica Growth Forecast After Firings
  • Hours later, BofA said it would be exiting operations in Costa Rica, Guadalajara, Mexico and Taguig, Philippines, without saying how many jobs would be lost. Costa Rica’s foreign investment agency said the BofA move would result in 1,500 layoffs.
  • “This is a strong call to the country to keeps tabs on things like the rising cost of electricity, telecommunications, wages and social guarantees.”
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  • The country of 4.7 million people climbed seven spots to 102nd in the World Bank’s annual “Doing Business” report this year, lagging behind China, Vietnam and Namibia. Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on Costa Rica to negative from neutral in September, citing a rising debt burden and widening budget deficit. Moody’s rates the country Baa3, putting it in the same category as Turkey and Iceland.
  • In a Bloomberg survey published last month, Costa Rica was ranked fourth behind Russia, Argentina and Ukraine on a list of countries confronting the biggest loss of investor confidence. The survey cited data including the rising cost of credit default swaps and the currency’s performance against the dollar.
  • California-based Intel, whose processors run more than 80 percent of personal computers shipped worldwide every year, originally chose to establish operations in Costa Rica after studying sites in Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico, according to a 2000 case study by Harvard University’s Center for International Development. The company’s $600 million investment at the time represented about 4.2 percent of GDP, prompting the company’s then-Vice President Bob Perlman to say Intel’s arrival was like “putting a whale in a swimming pool,” according to the study.
  • n 2013, about 21 percent of Costa Rica’s exports of goods came from Intel, according to investment promotion agency CINDE
Gene Ellis

Why Europe can't think strategically | The World - 0 views

  • All international crises elicit predictions that, this time, the EU will finally be forced to grow up, and develop a real foreign policy strategy. Such expectations are usually disappointed. I don’t see why it should be any different, this time.
Gene Ellis

Blueprints for Taming the Climate Crisis - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Blueprints for Taming the Climate Crisis
  • Within about 15 years every new car sold in the United States will be electric. In fact, by midcentury more than half of the American economy will run on electricity. Up to 60 percent of power might come from nuclear sources. And coal’s footprint will shrink drastically, perhaps even disappear from the power supply.
  • “This will require a heroic cooperative effort,” said Jeffrey D. Sachs, the Columbia University economist who directs the Sustainable Development Solutions Network at the United Nations,
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  • The teams, one in each of the 15 countries, looked at what would be necessary to keep the atmosphere from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius, 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above the preindustrial average of the late 19th century, a target that most of the world committed to at the climate summit meeting in Copenhagen five years ago.
  • To do so, CO2 emissions from industry and energy use would have to fall to at most 1.6 tons a year for every person on the planet by midcentury.
  • That is less than a tenth of annual American emissions per person today and less than a third of the world average
  • Lacking any understanding of the feasibility of the exercise, governments postured and jockeyed over which country should be responsible for what
  • This is not achievable by going after low-hanging fruit, such as replacing coal with natural gas in power plants.
  • The decarbonization paths rely on aggressive assumptions about our ability to deploy new technologies on a commercial scale economically.
  • Russia, for instance, hit the target. But Oleg Lugovoy of the Environmental Defense Fund, who worked on the Russian plan, observed that “if we don’t have carbon capture and storage we would have to reconsider.”
  • it does not do away with the main hitch that has stumped progress for decades: How much will this all cost and who will pay for it?
Gene Ellis

Jack Ma: E-commerce in China and Around the World - YouTube - 0 views

shared by Gene Ellis on 07 Mar 14 - No Cached
  • Jack Ma: E-commerce in China and Around the World
Gene Ellis

Dani Rodrik on the promise and peril of social-science models. - Project Syndicate - 0 views

  • We have neither the mental capacity nor the understanding to decipher the full web of cause-and-effect relations in our social existence. So our daily behavior and reactions must be based on incomplete, and occasionally misleading, mental models.
  • Social scientists – and economists in particular – analyze the world using simple conceptual frameworks that they call “models.”
  • Useful social-science models are invariably simplifications. They leave out many details to focus on the most relevant aspect of a specific context.
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  • But, as inevitable as simplification is for explanation, it is also a trap
  • Unfortunately, economists and other social scientists get virtually no training in how to choose among alternative models. Neither is such an aptitude professionally rewarded. Developing new theories and empirical tests is regarded as science, while the exercise of good judgment is clearly a craft.
  • The philosopher Isaiah Berlin famously distinguished between two styles of thinking, which he identified with the hedgehog and the fox. The hedgehog is captivated by a single big idea, which he applies unremittingly. The fox, by contrast, lacks a grand vision and holds many different views about the world – some of them even contradictory.
Gene Ellis

IEA - December:- Coal's share of global energy mix to continue rising, with coal closing in on oil as world's top energy source by 2017 - 0 views

  • Although the growth rate of coal slows from the breakneck pace of the last decade, global coal consumption by 2017 stands at 4.32 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (btoe), versus around 4.40 btoe for oil, based on IEA medium-term projections. The IEA expects that coal demand will increase in every region of the world except in the United States, where coal is being pushed out by natural gas.
  • “This report sees that trend continuing. In fact, the world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year by 2017 compared to today – equivalent to the current coal consumption of Russia and the United States combined. Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to grow each year, and if no changes are made to current policies, coal will catch oil within a decade.” 
  • The report notes that in the absence of a high carbon price, only fierce competition from low-priced gas can effectively reduce coal demand. “The US experience suggests that a more efficient gas market, marked by flexible pricing and fueled by indigenous unconventional resources that are produced sustainably, can reduce coal use, CO
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  • As US coal demand declines, more US coal is going to Europe, where low CO2 prices and high gas prices are increasing the competitiveness of coal in the power generation system.
Gene Ellis

World Steel Association - Triple E ships to launch new era for steel at sea - 0 views

  • To provide some perspective on the scale of this storage capacity, the same number of containers would fill more than 30 trains, each a mile long and stacked two containers high, and inside them could fit 36,000 cars or 863 million cans of baked beans.
  • The Triple-E is constructed in blocks that are sub-contracted, and at the shipyard they are assembled into the final vessel, which requires a great deal of precision and organization.
  • the Triple-E can travel 184 kilometres using 1 kWh of energy per tonne of cargo, whereas a jumbo jet travels half a kilometre using the same amount of energy per tonne of cargo. Compared to the average container ship on the Asia-Europe tradelane, where the ships will be deployed, the Triple-E is expected to emit 50% less CO2 per container moved.
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