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Gene Ellis

EZ crisis and historical trilemmas | vox - 0 views

  • The big difference in the EZ is that nations cannot go off the euro as they went off the gold standard
  • A major part of Lenin’s analysis, for instance, was devoted to the demonstration that Russia had become a quasi-colony as a result of the large scale capital imports, and that the foreign creditors in effect controlled Russia’s foreign policy.
  • The linkages of these issues can be summarized as a series of impossible trinities or trilemmas.
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  • The move in Europe to monetary union for weaker countries was a credibility enhancing mechanism that would lower borrowing costs. For countries that had strong creditor positions, the attractions of monetary union lay in the depoliticizing of the adjustment process (James 2012). The Eurozone worked quite well as a disciplining mechanism before it entered into effect, but much less well afterwards.
  • Banking expanded after the establishment of the euro (Shin 2012). No adequate provision on a European basis existed for banking supervision and regulation, which like fiscal policy, was left to rather diverse national authorities. An explosion of banking activity occurred simultaneously with the transition to monetary union and may well have been stimulated by the new single money.
  • The implicit national government backstop was really only credible because of the international commitment to the European integration project. It was that commitment that led markets to believe that – in spite of the no bailout provisions of the Maastricht Treaty – there were almost no limits to the amount to which debt levels could accumulate both in the private and the public sector.
  • When the democratic/popular backlash occurs, it takes the form of rejection of international/cross-border political commitment mechanism.
  • Opinion poll data shows a major increase in hostility to the EU in peripheral countries, but with no corresponding unpopularity of the common currency.
Gene Ellis

As Drilling Practice Takes Off in U.S., Europe Proves Hesitant - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Germany’s decision to eliminate its nuclear plants led it to bring coal-fired power plants out of mothballs to make up the difference. Doing so was a viable option because coal demand in the United States has dropped sharply as American power plants have turned to less expensive gas, driving down the cost of American coal for export to global markets.
  • As a result, carbon dioxide emissions in Germany went up last year, not down
  • “Without shale gas, this would be a world where Russia would have very, very strong market power and there would be very strong dependency on gas supply from geopolitically risky regions in the Middle East, Iran and North Africa,” said Laszlo Varro, the director of the Gas, Coal and Power Markets Division of the International Energy Agency.
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  • Gazprom, the huge Russian gas company, finds its traditional business model in trouble. Under the pressure of a market in which gas is being supplied from more places, Gazprom has had to renegotiate gas contracts with European countries, costing it $6 billion, Mr. Varro said.
  • “Gazprom is not against shale gas,” Mr. Stevens said, “it’s just against everyone else having it.”
  • As Europe becomes a more “contestable market” with more integrated pipelines, more liquefied natural gas and more shale gas, behavior will change. “If people can come in easily, the threat of coming in will make the monopolist behave differently,”
Gene Ellis

An interview with Athanasios Orphanides: What happened in Cyprus | The Economist - 0 views

  • Cyprus had developed its financial center over three decades ago by having double taxation treaties with a number of countries, the Soviet Union for example. That means if profits are booked and earned and taxed in Cyprus, they are not taxed again in the other country. Russian deposits are there because Cyprus has a low corporate tax rate, much like Malta and Luxembourg, which annoys some people in Europe.
  • In addition, Cyprus has a legal system based on English law and follows English accounting rules
  • This government took a country with excellent fiscal finances, a surplus in fiscal accounts, and a banking system that was in excellent health. They started overspending, not only for unproductive government expenditures but also they raised implicit liabilities by raising pension promises, and so forth.
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  • The size of the banking sector and exposure to Greece were known risks but at that time there was no banking problem in Cyprus
  • The containers were part of a shipment going from Iran to Syria that was intercepted in Cypriot waters after a tip from the U.S. The president took the decision to keep the ammunition. [NOTE: An independent prosecutor found that Christofias has ignored repeated warnings and pleas to destroy or safeguard the ammunition, apparently in hopes of one day returning it to Syria or Iran.]
  • Instead, they started lobbying the Russian government to give them a loan that would help them finance the country for a couple more years, and Russia came through, unfortunately,
  • I say unfortunately because as a result the government could keep operating and accumulating deficits without taking corrective action.
  • The next important date was the October 26-27, 2011 meeting of the EU council in Brussels where European leaders decided to wipe out what ended up being about 80% of the value of Greek debt that the private sector held. Every bank operating in Greece, regardless of where it was headquartered, had a lot of Greek debt.
  • For Cyprus, the writedown of Greek debt was between 4.5 and 5 billion euro, a substantial chunk of capital.
  • The second element of the decision taken by heads of states was to instruct the EBA to do a so- called capital exercise that marked to market sovereign debt and effectively raised abruptly capital requirements. The exercise required banks to have a core tier-1 ratio of 9%, and on top of that a buffer to make up for differences in market and book value of government debt. That famous capital exercise created the capital crunch in the euro area which is the cause of the recession we've had in the euro area for the last 2 years.
  • The Basle II framework that governments adopted internationally, and that the EU supervisory framework during this period also incorporated, specifies that holdings of government debt in a states' own currency are a zero-risk-weight asset, that is they are assigned a weight of zero in calculating capital requirements.
  • the governments should have agreed to make the EFSF/ESM available for direct recapitalization of banks instead of asking each government to be responsible for the capitalization.
  • Following a downgrading in late June 2012, all three major rating agencies rated the sovereign paper Cyprus below investment grade. According to ECB rules, that made the government debt not eligible as collateral for borrowing from the eurosystem, unless the ECB suspended the rules, as it had done for the cases of Greece, Portugal and Ireland. In the case of Cyprus, the ECB decided not to suspend the eligibility rule.
  • The governments have created risk in what before last week were considered perfectly safe deposits. This is going to have a chilling effect on deposits in any bank in a country perceived to be weak. This will mean the cost of funding will increase in the periphery of Europe and as a result, the cost of financing for businesses and households will increase. That will add to the divergences we already have and make the recession in the periphery of Europe deeper than it already is. This is really a disaster for European economic management as a whole. 
Gene Ellis

Ukraine raises fears of gas price war with Russia - FT.com - 0 views

  • He called upon the EU to pressure Slovakia’s gas transit pipeline operator into sanctioning so-called reverse gas transit flow schemes, allowing Ukraine, which relies heavily on Russian fuel imports, to diversify by importing European market gas.
Gene Ellis

How Putin Forged a Pipeline Deal That Derailed - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • How Putin Forged a Pipeline Deal That Derailed
  • The pipeline, known as South Stream, was Mr. Putin’s most important European project, a tool of economic and geopolitical power critical to twin goals: keeping Europe hooked on Russian gas, and further entrenching Russian influence in fragile former Soviet satellite states as part of a broader effort to undermine European unity.
  • The bill that Parliament took up on April 4 was arcane. But it swept aside a host of European regulations — rules that Mr. Putin did not want to abide by — for a pipeline that would deliver gas throughout southern Europe. Continue reading the main story Related Coverage In Diplomatic Defeat, Putin Diverts Pipeline to TurkeyDEC. 1, 2014
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  • In France, the leader of the far-right National Front, Marine Le Pen, recently acknowledged that her party had received a loan for 9 million euros, or about $11 million, from a Kremlin-linked bank.
  • Faced with punishing sanctions, a petro-economy pushed to the brink by plunging oil prices and the wildly gyrating value of the ruble, Mr. Putin this month halted the project.
  • Geological surveys suggested that Bulgaria could be sitting atop an underground ocean of natural gas, enough to be self-sufficient for years, enough to eclipse the advantages of South Stream.
  • On April 4, 2014, soon after Mr. Putin annexed Crimea, Bulgaria’s Parliament gave initial passage to a bill that effectively exempted South Stream from a number of European Union regulations, most important, the one that would have forced Gazprom to allow non-Russian gas to flow through the pipeline.
  • “If I hear one more word about competition, I’m going to freeze your you-know-whats off,” Mr. Putin reportedly shouted.
  • The anti-fracking movement became so broad that in January 2012, Parliament banned not only the extraction of shale gas, but even exploration that would quantify the country’s reserves.
  • When the Bulgarian government refused, the European Union cut off tens of millions of euros in regional development funds.
  • In desperate need of the European funds, the prime minister announced the next day that South Stream would be halted until it had full European Union approval.
  • While “he overreached, and he underestimated the response” to his intervention in Ukraine, said Mr. Gray, the former American diplomat, the Russian leader has been “quite effective” in countries like Bulgaria.“He won a great deal by getting Nabucco stopped,” Mr. Gray said. “Ultimately, his goal is to keep as much control over the former parts of the Soviet empire as possible.”
Gene Ellis

Russia's message to the E.U.: Money talks - The Washington Post - 0 views

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    Anne Applebaum
Gene Ellis

Ukraine crisis: Coal seen as option for European energy security - 0 views

shared by Gene Ellis on 05 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • Coal seen as option for European energy security
  • has governments in Europe beginning to voice support for domestic coal as a way to cut European dependence on Russian natural gas. About a 40 percent of the European Union's natural gas comes from Russia, and a fifth of its oil.
Gene Ellis

The German locomotive has become Europe's liability - FT.com - 0 views

  • It is true German exports to Russia and eastern Europe have declined since the beginning of the year. But, given that they never accounted for more than 4 per cent of total exports, this does little to explain the country’s lacklustre performance.
  • The main problem is not weak export demand or the reluctance of consumers to spend money but the fact that companies are unwilling to invest in new productive assets. Investment now accounts for a smaller portion of output in Germany than in most other industrialised countries.
  • Germany’s public investment in transport infrastructure and education has long been among the lowest in Europe.
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  • The country should also use its political clout to convince its partners and Brussels to implement a European reform agenda that targets investment and growth.
Gene Ellis

Europe's Farmers Feel the Weight of Russian Ban - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Europe’s Farmers Feel the Weight of Russian Ban
  • For Fromi Rungis, Russia accounted for 10 percent of its foreign sales.
Gene Ellis

Europe risks 'significant' gas shortages this winter - FT.com - 0 views

  • Europe risks ‘significant’ gas shortages this winter
  • Eastern European nations are working on ambitious plans to develop terminals to import liquefied natural gas but these will not be ready by the winter.
    • Gene Ellis
       
      Dubious, given that the danger is not gas deliveries through Ukraine, but Russian reductions in total supply in hopes of cowing the EU...
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  • Still, Europe is in a stronger position now than in 2009. Five years ago, 80 per cent of Russian gas was piped across Ukraine, whereas now less than 50 per cent takes that route, thanks to the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic sea.
  • Total executives have predicted that Russia will be the largest contributor to the group’s oil production by 2020.
  • Total has also indicated that it intends to increase its stake in Novatek, one of whose major shareholders, Gennady Timchenko, is on the US blacklist.
  • “Novatek is not subject to sanctions. So we work with Novatek as before and we will continue.”
Gene Ellis

At the Time Warner Center, an Enclave of Powerful Russians - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • At the Time Warner Center, anEnclave of Powerful Russians
Gene Ellis

Citi Cuts Costa Rica Growth Forecast After Firings - Bloomberg - 0 views

  • Citi Cuts Costa Rica Growth Forecast After Firings
  • Hours later, BofA said it would be exiting operations in Costa Rica, Guadalajara, Mexico and Taguig, Philippines, without saying how many jobs would be lost. Costa Rica’s foreign investment agency said the BofA move would result in 1,500 layoffs.
  • “This is a strong call to the country to keeps tabs on things like the rising cost of electricity, telecommunications, wages and social guarantees.”
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  • The country of 4.7 million people climbed seven spots to 102nd in the World Bank’s annual “Doing Business” report this year, lagging behind China, Vietnam and Namibia. Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on Costa Rica to negative from neutral in September, citing a rising debt burden and widening budget deficit. Moody’s rates the country Baa3, putting it in the same category as Turkey and Iceland.
  • In a Bloomberg survey published last month, Costa Rica was ranked fourth behind Russia, Argentina and Ukraine on a list of countries confronting the biggest loss of investor confidence. The survey cited data including the rising cost of credit default swaps and the currency’s performance against the dollar.
  • California-based Intel, whose processors run more than 80 percent of personal computers shipped worldwide every year, originally chose to establish operations in Costa Rica after studying sites in Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico, according to a 2000 case study by Harvard University’s Center for International Development. The company’s $600 million investment at the time represented about 4.2 percent of GDP, prompting the company’s then-Vice President Bob Perlman to say Intel’s arrival was like “putting a whale in a swimming pool,” according to the study.
  • n 2013, about 21 percent of Costa Rica’s exports of goods came from Intel, according to investment promotion agency CINDE
Gene Ellis

Daniel Gros calls for a broad array of EU measures to revive output growth and strengthen regional cohesion. - Project Syndicate - 0 views

  • Restarting Ukraine’s Economy
  • the price of gas must be increased substantially to reflect its cost,
  • governance of the country’s pipelines, which still earn huge royalties for carrying Russian gas to Western Europe, must be overhauled.
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  • subsidies for domestic coal production must be stopped
  • Ever since these pipelines were effectively handed over to nominally private companies in murky deals, earnings from transit fees have gone missing, along with vast amounts of gas, while little maintenance has been carried out.
  • An energy ministry that decides who can obtain gas at one-fifth of its cost and who cannot is obviously subject to irresistible pressures to distribute its favors to whomever offers the largest bribes or kickbacks. The same applies to coal subsidies, except that the subsidies go to the most inefficient producers.
  • these steps also risk hitting eastern Ukraine, which contains a substantial Russophone minority, particularly hard. Some there might be tempted by the allure of a better life in “Mother Russia,” with its vast resources of cheap energy.
  • And it should open its markets, not only by abolishing its import tariffs on Ukrainian products, which has already been decided, but also by granting a temporary exemption from the need to meet all of the EU’s complicated technical standards and regulations.
  • At the same time, the EU should help to address the cause of extraordinary heating costs: the woeful energy inefficiency of most of the existing housing stock.
  • Experience in Eastern Europe, where energy prices had to be increased substantially in the 1990’s, demonstrated that simple measures – such as better insulation, together with maintenance and repair of the region’s many long-neglected central heating systems – yield a quick and substantial payoff in reducing energy intensity.
  • Even a slight improvement in Ukraine’s energy efficiency would contribute more to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions than the vast sums currently being spent to develop renewable energy sources.
Gene Ellis

Blueprints for Taming the Climate Crisis - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Blueprints for Taming the Climate Crisis
  • Within about 15 years every new car sold in the United States will be electric. In fact, by midcentury more than half of the American economy will run on electricity. Up to 60 percent of power might come from nuclear sources. And coal’s footprint will shrink drastically, perhaps even disappear from the power supply.
  • “This will require a heroic cooperative effort,” said Jeffrey D. Sachs, the Columbia University economist who directs the Sustainable Development Solutions Network at the United Nations,
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  • The teams, one in each of the 15 countries, looked at what would be necessary to keep the atmosphere from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius, 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above the preindustrial average of the late 19th century, a target that most of the world committed to at the climate summit meeting in Copenhagen five years ago.
  • To do so, CO2 emissions from industry and energy use would have to fall to at most 1.6 tons a year for every person on the planet by midcentury.
  • That is less than a tenth of annual American emissions per person today and less than a third of the world average
  • Lacking any understanding of the feasibility of the exercise, governments postured and jockeyed over which country should be responsible for what
  • This is not achievable by going after low-hanging fruit, such as replacing coal with natural gas in power plants.
  • The decarbonization paths rely on aggressive assumptions about our ability to deploy new technologies on a commercial scale economically.
  • Russia, for instance, hit the target. But Oleg Lugovoy of the Environmental Defense Fund, who worked on the Russian plan, observed that “if we don’t have carbon capture and storage we would have to reconsider.”
  • it does not do away with the main hitch that has stumped progress for decades: How much will this all cost and who will pay for it?
Gene Ellis

IEA - December:- Coal's share of global energy mix to continue rising, with coal closing in on oil as world's top energy source by 2017 - 0 views

  • Although the growth rate of coal slows from the breakneck pace of the last decade, global coal consumption by 2017 stands at 4.32 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (btoe), versus around 4.40 btoe for oil, based on IEA medium-term projections. The IEA expects that coal demand will increase in every region of the world except in the United States, where coal is being pushed out by natural gas.
  • “This report sees that trend continuing. In fact, the world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year by 2017 compared to today – equivalent to the current coal consumption of Russia and the United States combined. Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to grow each year, and if no changes are made to current policies, coal will catch oil within a decade.” 
  • The report notes that in the absence of a high carbon price, only fierce competition from low-priced gas can effectively reduce coal demand. “The US experience suggests that a more efficient gas market, marked by flexible pricing and fueled by indigenous unconventional resources that are produced sustainably, can reduce coal use, CO
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  • As US coal demand declines, more US coal is going to Europe, where low CO2 prices and high gas prices are increasing the competitiveness of coal in the power generation system.
Gene Ellis

Across Eastern Europe, Military Spending Lags - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Across Eastern Europe, Military Spending Lags
  • After years in which a combination of fiscal pressures and a complacent trust in the alliance’s protection may have led them to drop their guard,
  • many countries are building from a very limited ability and remain years away from fielding anything resembling a formidable force against a military as large as Russia’s.
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  • NATO asks member states to spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product on their armed forces, yet only a handful of them actually do. Estonia, the small Baltic state at the alliance’s far eastern edge, is one of them, and Poland, by far the largest and richest country on that flank, is at 1.95 percent.
  • Latvia and Lithuania are spending less than 1 percent, though both have indicated they intend to ratchet up to 2 percent by 2020
  • But it will be a decade before the full impact of this modernization is felt in the field, he said.
  • The plan NATO has agreed on — to set up forward supply bases on the alliance’s eastern front in which 4,000 or so troops could be deployed within 48 hours — might be useful in combating a small, stealth insurgency, like the masked gunmen who arrived in Ukraine to set off that crisis, but would be useless in the face of an invasion. “What is required is to be able to hold off any aggression for at least a couple of weeks, to buy some time and provide some sort of sanctuary for reinforcements”
  • In recent years, Russia has massed tens of thousands of troops for exercises just across their borders.
  • When the Baltic states entered NATO a decade ago, they were urged not to spend their limited resources on building large standing armies, but to depend on others in the alliance to come to their aid in an emergency. Instead, the Baltic countries and other former Soviet satellite states focused their military spending on building specialties that they could offer the alliance, such as Estonia’s focus on cybersecurity
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