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Contents contributed and discussions participated by Gene Ellis

Gene Ellis

Europe has to do whatever it takes - FT.com - 0 views

  • Europe has to do whatever it takes By Martin Wolf
  • Astonishingly, yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year debt have fallen from 6.3 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively, at the beginning of August 2012, to a mere 2.3 and 2.1 per cent early this month. That is below the yield on UK gilts.
  • Fiscal policy also continues to tighten, even though interest rates are at the zero bound: the OECD has forecast that the cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit of the eurozone would shrink from a mere 1.4 per cent in 2013 to an even more austere 0.9 per cent in 2014.
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  • Huge divergences in competitiveness remain
  • This is forcing vulnerable countries into deflation, which raises the real level of their debt.
  • Furthermore, it is clear that the ECB would be taking on credit risk. It would be charged with monetary financing of governments. I believe it should go ahead. But the row between northern and southern Europe would surely be deafening.
  • It also hopes that, through this and other programmes it has announced, it will be able to expand its balance sheet
  • back to where it was two years ago.
  • Moreover, the range of measures taken reinforce the ECB’s forward guidance. It has locked itself into ultra-accommodative monetary policies for years, as it should.
  • this year Germany’s current account surplus might be as big as 8 per cent of gross domestic product.
  • What else is left? One possibility, suggested in Mr Draghi’s speech, is active use of fiscal policy.
Gene Ellis

Russia restricting Austria's gas supplies - The Local - 0 views

  • Russia restricting Austria's gas supplies
  • According to the energy regulator E-Control, Gazprom supplied Austria 15 percent less gas than had been previously agreed. Similar issues have hit Poland, which has seen their supplies cut by 45 percent, and Slovakia, which has ten percent less gas than expected for the period.
  • Poland on Thursday accused Russia's Gazprom of slashing gas deliveries by half, which analysts said was likely aimed at sending a message to the EU amid tensions over the Ukraine conflict.
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  • "There's no risk to Polish clients," PGNiG spokeswoman Dorota Gajewska said, but added that it was forced to suspend its so-called "reverse flow" transfers to Ukraine.
  • The move caused the Russian ruble to plunge to another record low against the dollar on Thursday.
  • "It also can be seen as a kind of response to EU sanctions, targeting the smaller EU members in Moscow's former sphere of influence, not its larger Western partner." "But it's a risky policy, as it further undermines Moscow's credibility in Western Europe. It's not the best idea: either you're a reliable supplier of gas or you're not," he said.
Gene Ellis

How Much Europe Depends on Russian Energy - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • How Much Europe Depends on Russian Energy
Gene Ellis

Will at Work Learning: How Much Do People Forget? - 0 views

  • How Much Do People Forget?
  • In Runquist’s 1983 study, the best learning method produced average forgetting at 34%, whereas all the other learning methods produced average forgetting of 78%
Gene Ellis

Switch to Natural Gas Won't Reduce Carbon Emissions Much, Study Finds - 0 views

  • Switch to Natural Gas Won't Reduce Carbon Emissions Much, Study Finds
Gene Ellis

The Long Bright Path to the Nobel Prize for LED Lighting - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • In its announcement, the academy recalled Alfred Nobel’s desire that his prize be awarded for something that benefited humankind, noting that one-fourth of the world’s electrical energy consumption goes to producing light.
Gene Ellis

The third great wave | The Economist - 0 views

  • The third great wave
  • A third great wave of invention and economic disruption, set off by advances in computing and information and communication technology (ICT) in the late 20th century, promises to deliver a similar mixture of social stress and economic transformation
  • Powerful, ubiquitous computing was made possible by the development of the integrated circuit in the 1950s
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  • Evidence of this is all around. Until recently machines have found it difficult to “understand” written or spoken language, or to deal with complex visual images, but now they seem to be getting to grips with such things.
  • concluded that 47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated away over the next decade or two.
  • Now technology is empowering talented individuals as never before and opening up yawning gaps between the earnings of the skilled and the unskilled, capital-owners and labour.
  • The effect of technological change on trade is also changing the basis of tried-and-true methods of economic development in poorer economies.
Gene Ellis

VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF ETF VGK Quote Price News - 0 views

  • Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF  VGK
Gene Ellis

UPDATE: European stocks might enter the sweet spot in 2015 - 0 views

  • UPDATE: European stocks might enter the sweet spot in 2015
Gene Ellis

Productivity: Technology isn't working | The Economist - 0 views

  • Technology isn’t working
  • Technology isn’t working
  • n the 1970s the blistering growth after the second world war vanished in both Europe and America. In the early 1990s Japan joined the slump, entering a prolonged period of economic stagnation.
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  • Between 1991 and 2012 the average annual increase in real wages in Britain was 1.5% and in America 1%, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a club of mostly rich countries.
  • Real wage growth in Germany from 1992 to 2012 was just 0.6%; Italy and Japan saw hardly any increase at all.
  • And the dramatic dip in productivity growth after 2000 seems to have coincided with an apparent acceleration in technological advances as the web and smartphones spread everywhere and machine intelligence and robotics made rapid progress.
  • A second explanation for the Solow paradox, put forward by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (as well as plenty of techno-optimists in Silicon Valley), is that technological advances increase productivity only after a long lag.
  • John Fernald, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and perhaps the foremost authority on American productivity figures, earlier this year published a study of productivity growth over the past decade. He found that its slowness had nothing to do with the housing boom and bust, the financial crisis or the recession. Instead, it was concentrated in ICT industries and those that use ICT intensively.
  • Once an online course has been developed, it can be offered to unlimited numbers of extra students at little extra cost.
  • For example, new techniques and technologies in medical care appear to be slowing the rise in health-care costs in America. Machine intelligence could aid diagnosis, allowing a given doctor or nurse to diagnose more patients more effectively at lower cost. The use of mobile technology to monitor chronically ill patients at home could also produce huge savings.
  • Health care and education are expensive, in large part, because expansion involves putting up new buildings and filling them with costly employees. Rising productivity in those sectors would probably cut employment.
  • The integration of large emerging markets into the global economy added a large pool of relatively low-skilled labour which many workers in rich countries had to compete with. That meant firms were able to keep workers’ pay low.
  • By creating a labour glut, new technologies have trapped rich economies in a cycle of self-limiting productivity growth.
  • Productivity growth has always meant cutting down on labour. In 1900 some 40% of Americans worked in agriculture, and just over 40% of the typical household budget was spent on food. Over the next century automation reduced agricultural employment in most rich countries to below 5%,
  • A new paper by Peter Cappelli, of the University of Pennsylvania, concludes that in recent years over-education has been a consistent problem in most developed economies, which do not produce enough suitable jobs to absorb the growing number of college-educated workers.
Gene Ellis

German Study Finds GM Crops Good for Farmers and the Environment | Food Safety News - 0 views

  • German Study Finds GM Crops Good for Farmers and the Environment
Gene Ellis

Solar and Wind Energy Start to Win on Price vs. Conventional Fuels - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Solar and Wind Energy Start to Win on Price vs. Conventional Fuels
  • In Texas, Austin Energy signed a deal this spring for 20 years of output from a solar farm at less than 5 cents a kilowatt-hour.
  • Without subsidies, the firm’s analysis shows, solar costs about 7.2 cents a kilowatt-hour at the low end, with wind at 3.7 cents.
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  • Mr. Mir noted there were hidden costs that needed to be taken into account for both renewable energy and fossil fuels. Solar and wind farms, for example, produce power intermittently — when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing — and that requires utilities to have power available on call from other sources that can respond to fluctuations in demand.
  • “Renewables had two issues: One, they were too expensive, and they weren’t dispatchable. They’re not too expensive anymore.”
  • Especially in the interior region of the country, from North Dakota down to Texas, where wind energy is particularly robust, utilities were able to lock in long contracts at 2.1 cents a kilowatt-hour, on average, she said. That is down from prices closer to 5 cents five years ago.
  • Already, solar executives are looking to extend a 30 percent federal tax credit that is set to fall to 10 percent at the end of 2016.
Gene Ellis

The Debate About GMO Safety Is Over, Thanks To A New Trillion-Meal Study - 0 views

  • The Debate About GMO Safety Is Over, Thanks To A New Trillion-Meal Study
  • The Debate About GMO Safety Is Over, Thanks To A New Trillion-Meal Study
Gene Ellis

The Broken Model Of The Eurozone | Seeking Alpha - 0 views

  • The Broken Model Of The Eurozone
  • The North is competitive. The South is 20% overvalued.And I realized that's all you need to know about the eurozone and about why it will fail. Or has already failed, to put it more accurately. There's no other information required. Other than a bit of context, perhaps, to clarify.Before the euro and the eurozone, countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, would perform 20% or more lower economically than Germany or Holland would. And that was kind of alright, because periodically, their governments and central banks would revalue (devaluate) their currencies down against;
  • Of course, Germany hated this to an extent, since it made it harder for its industries to compete against Greek and Italian companies. Which may, by the way, well be a mostly hidden reason for them to push the eurozone on the Mediterranean.
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