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Gene Ellis

Nathan Myhrvold: The Wealthy Should Fund Innovation | MIT Technology Review - 0 views

  • Let’s be clear: conventional nuclear energy has drawbacks, principally that it relies on enriched uranium. That’s problematic for several reasons. In the first place, there’s not that much uranium: if you tried to scale conventional nuclear energy to meet the world’s energy needs, you’d run out.
  • In the U.S., more than 700,000 metric tons of depleted uranium—the by-product of enrichment—sits in storage.
  • TerraPower’s technology is designed to use that depleted uranium as fuel, turning the cheap by-product of today’s reactors into enough electricity to power every home in America for 1,000 years.
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  • he technology would also virtually eliminate the need for new enrichment facilities, which is important because enriched uranium is a proliferation risk.
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    Nuclear fuel possibilities...
Gene Ellis

Dani Rodrik reviews the fundamental lessons about emerging economies that economists ha... - 0 views

  • Death by Finance
  • First, emerging-market hype is just that. Economic miracles rarely occur, and for good reason. Governments that can intervene massively to restructure and diversify the economy, while preventing the state from becoming a mechanism of corruption and rent-seeking, are the exception.
  • the rapid industrialization that they engineered has eluded most of Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia.
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  • We have long known that portfolio and short-term inflows fuel consumption booms and real-estate bubbles, with disastrous consequences when market sentiment inevitably sours and finance dries up. Governments that enjoyed the rollercoaster ride on the way up should not have been surprised by the plunge that inevitably follows.
  • Third, floating exchange rates are flawed shock absorbers. In theory, market-determined currency values are supposed to isolate the domestic economy from the vagaries of international finance, rising when money floods in and falling when the flows are reversed. In reality, few economies can bear the requisite currency alignments without pain.
  • They must resist the temptation to binge on foreign finance when it is cheap and plentiful.
  • It is true, but unhelpful, to say that governments have only themselves to blame for having recklessly rushed into this wild ride. It is now time to think about how the world can create a saner balance between finance and the real economy.
  • Death by Finance
Gene Ellis

The Truth about Fracking - Kevin D. Williamson - National Review Online - 0 views

  • The water makes the fractures, and the sand keeps them open. There’s some other stuff in that fracking blend, too: biocides, for one thing, not very different from what’s in your swimming pool, to keep bacteria and algae and other gunk from growing in the water and clogging up the works. There are also some friction reducers, because water and sand moving at speed can produce a lot of wear and tear (cf. the Grand Canyon), and the occasional jolt of 7 percent hydrochloric acid solution for boring out holes in the concrete. The mix is 99+ percent water and sand, and the rest of the stuff is mostly run-of-the-mill industrial chemicals (those friction-reducers use a polymer that also is used in children’s toys, for example). Real concerns, but not exactly an insurmountable environmental challenge.
Gene Ellis

"A Centerless Euro Cannot Hold" by Kenneth Rogoff | Project Syndicate - 0 views

  • The bad news is that it has become increasingly clear that, at least for large countries, currency areas will be highly unstable unless they follow national borders.
  • With youth unemployment touching 50% in eurozone countries such as Spain and Greece, is a generation being sacrificed for the sake of a single currency that encompasses too diverse a group of countries to be sustainable?
  • What of Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell’s famous 1961 conjecture that national and currency borders need not significantly overlap? In his provocative American Economic Review paper “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” Mundell argued that as long as workers could move within a currency region to where the jobs were, the region could afford to forgo the equilibrating mechanism of exchange-rate adjustment.
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  • if intra-eurozone mobility were anything like Mundell’s ideal, today we would not be seeing 25% unemployment in Spain while Germany’s unemployment rate is below 7%.CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraph
  • Peter Kenen argued in the late 1960’s that without exchange-rate movements as a shock absorber, a currency union requires fiscal transfers as a way to share risk.
  • Europe, of course, has no significant centralized tax authority, so this key automatic stabilizer is essentially absent.
  • Many Germans today rightly feel that any system of fiscal transfers will morph into a permanent feeding tube, much the way that northern Italy has been propping up southern Italy for the last century. Indeed, more than 20 years on, Western Germans still see no end in sight for the bills from German unification.
  • Later, Maurice Obstfeld pointed out that, in addition to fiscal transfers, a currency union needs clearly defined rules for the lender of last resort. Otherwise, bank runs and debt panics will be rampant. Obstfeld had in mind a bailout mechanism for banks, but it is now abundantly clear that one also needs a lender of last resort and a bankruptcy mechanism for states and municipalities.
  • A logical corollary of the criteria set forth by Kenen and Obstfeld, and even of Mundell’s labor-mobility criterion, is that currency unions cannot survive without political legitimacy,
  • European policymakers today often complain that, were it not for the US financial crisis, the eurozone would be doing just fine. Perhaps they are right. But any financial system must be able to withstand shocks, including big ones.
Gene Ellis

The Tragedy of the European Union and How to Resolve It by George Soros | The New York ... - 0 views

  • It took financial markets more than a year to realize the implications of Chancellor Merkel’s declaration, demonstrating that they operate with far-from-perfect knowledge
  • the financial markets began to realize that government bonds, which had been considered riskless, carried significant risks and could actually default. When they finally discovered it, risk premiums in the form of higher yields that governments had to offer so as to sell their bonds rose dramatically. This rendered commercial banks whose balance sheets were loaded with those bonds potentially insolvent.
  • That created both a sovereign debt problem and a banking problem,
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  • The creditors are in effect shifting the whole burden of adjustment onto the debtor countries and avoiding their own responsibility for the imbalances.
  • In this context the German word Schuld is revealing: it means both debt and guilt. German public opinion blames the heavily indebted countries for their misfortune.
  • The Maastricht Treaty took it for granted that only the public sector can produce chronic deficits. It assumed that financial markets would always correct their own excesses
  • For instance, they treated the euro crisis as if it were a purely fiscal, i.e., budgetary, problem. But only Greece qualified as a genuine fiscal crisis. The rest of Europe suffered largely from banking problems and a divergence in competitiveness, which gave rise to balance of payments problems.
Gene Ellis

Golden Rice - Lifesaver? - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • making it the only variety in existence to produce beta carotene, the source of vitamin A. Its developers call it “Golden Rice.”
  • And they have motivated similar attacks on trials of other genetically modified crops in recent years: grapes designed to fight off a deadly virus in France, wheat designed to have a lower glycemic index in Australia, sugar beets in Oregon designed to tolerate a herbicide, to name a few.
  • Not owned by any company, Golden Rice is being developed by a nonprofit group called the International Rice Research Institute with the aim of providing a new source of vitamin A to people both in the Philippines, where most households get most of their calories from rice,
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  • “The genes they inserted to make the vitamin are not some weird manufactured material,” he wrote, “but are also found in squash, carrots and melons.” 
Gene Ellis

The Man Who'll Perform Triage on Europe's Banks - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • “What makes it difficult is that it is very fragmented,” he continued. “It is diversified in different countries and they are not used to working together, so it’s a huge organizational effort, and it’s also a huge political effort in the sense of convincing everybody to converge to common styles of supervision.”
  • three parts.
  • a broad assessment of a bank’s risk profile
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  • The second is the so-called “asset quality review,”
  • The third is what is known as a “stress test,”
  • For the supervisory process to be truly useful, experts say it must also be accompanied by a so-called single resolution mechanism — a system for winding down failing banks in an orderly way, to avoid market upheavals.
Gene Ellis

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Transatlantic Economic Sanctions Against Russia - 0 views

shared by Gene Ellis on 25 Apr 14 - No Cached
  • Transatlantic Economic Sanctions Against Russia
  • First, I have recommended to government officials that US and EU negotiators give priority to energy cooperation and promotion of US exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe during the fourth round of talks on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that start on March 10 in Brussels. Efforts should be made to conclude this part of the agreement quickly and immediately implement the obligations on a provisional basis
  • Second, the United States and the European Union should call for special consultations in the International Energy Agency (IEA) to review current oil and gas supply arrangements and reserves in Europe. The IEA should also be called on to assess the implications of the crisis in Ukraine for member and nonmember countries and their options for dealing with potential supply disruptions. Ukraine participates in consultations with IEA members on a regular basis anyway and clearly should be doing so now.
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  • they would help inoculate European economies against the adverse effects of energy disruptions in the medium term.
  • Consideration should be given to invoking GATT Article XXI, which provides exceptions for national security reasons from rights and obligations under the World Trade Organization (WTO), for example. Invoking this WTO exception would allow across-the-board actions against Russia without prior notification or even justification. The national security exception of Article XXI is that broad. In brief, the United States and the European Union could remove in one step all the WTO benefits they accorded Russia when it acceded to the WTO in August 2012. Doing so would disrupt bilateral trade and investment, possibly kicking tariffs back up to Smoot-Hawley levels of the 1930s.
Gene Ellis

Chevron and Ukraine Set Shale Gas Deal - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Last year Ukraine consumed about 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas, most of it imported from Russia, while producing about 19 billion cubic meters, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
  • Shale gas technologies are altering the geopolitics of energy from Russia to the Middle East. Three territories — Russia, Iran and Qatar — hold about half the conventional reserves of natural gas. But shale is found in many other places, including India, China, Australia and in Eastern Europe, undercutting the power of the oil sheikhs and the Kremlin.
  • Ukraine, despite producing some domestic gas by conventional extraction, remains highly dependent on Russia’s Gazprom, which cut off its supplies in 2006 and 2009 in pricing disputes. As a result, Ukraine pays exceptionally high prices for natural gas,
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  • Europe depends on Russia for about 40 percent of its imported gas, most transmitted through Ukraine.
  • The appearance of imported cheap liquefied natural gas on the European market from Qatar and reduced demand have already led Gazprom to negotiate cuts of about 10 percent in contracts with Western European utilities,
Gene Ellis

Europe's banks are too feeble to spur growth - FT.com - 0 views

  • Europe’s banks are too feeble to spur growth
  • It is essential not to make too much of these stress tests and asset quality review. Yes, they are real improvements. But they do not mean that eurozone banks will now drive growth. They still have too little capital for that. More important, the eurozone lacks a credible strategy for reigniting demand. If much of the German policy elite continues to deny this is even a problem, the crisis of the eurozone must remain unresolved. That is a disaster.
Gene Ellis

Four rescue measures for stagnant eurozone - FT.com - 0 views

  • Four rescue measures for stagnant eurozone
  • The EBA has a long record of stress tests that grotesquely underestimate the capital holes in EU banks.
  • Both the AQR and the stress test relied heavily on national regulators and supervisors – the very entities on whose watch the excesses that led to the financial crisis were allowed to fester and compound.
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  • They were in charge of the regulatory leniency that permitted the banks in their jurisdictions to engage in lender forbearance (extend and pretend/delay and pray) and to overstate the fair value of their assets.
  • To avoid the cyclical stagnation in the eurozone turning into secular stagnation, four policies are required.
  • he first is a proper AQR and stress test followed by a speedy recapitalisation of the capital-deficient banks and a wave of consolidation in the eurozone banking sector to bring higher profitability
  • The second measure is a temporary fiscal stimulus (say 1 per cent of eurozone GDP per year for two years, concentrated in the countries with the largest output gaps, that is, in the periphery), which is permanently funded and monetised by the ECB.
  • this will be a reminder that the most important asset of central banks – the present value of future seigniorage profits – is off-balance sheet.
  • Finally, to achieve debt sustainability for the eurozone sovereigns, radical supply side reforms are required that boost the growth rate of potential output to at least 1.5 per cent in Italy, Portugal and other sclerotic countries.
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