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Gene Ellis

The Excel Depression - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...gman-the-excel-depression.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 19 Apr 13 - No Cached
  • As soon as the paper was released, many economists pointed out that a negative correlation between debt and economic performance need not mean that high debt causes low growth.
  • and the mystery of the irreproducible results was solved. First, they omitted some data; second, they used unusual and highly questionable statistical procedures; and finally, yes, they made an Excel coding error.
  • Over time, another problem emerged: Other researchers, using seemingly comparable data on debt and growth, couldn’t replicate the Reinhart-Rogoff results.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • For three years, the turn to austerity has been presented not as a choice but as a necessity.
Gene Ellis

Foreign Banks in U.S. Face Greater Restrictions - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...face-greater-restrictions.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 26 Apr 13 - No Cached
  • As for equity levels, in many cases a foreign bank might simply have to convert loans it had made to the American operation into equity investments. Suddenly the American operation would appear to be better capitalized.
  • European regulators who trusted Iceland to regulate its own banks wound up paying off depositors even though there is little hope Iceland will ever reimburse those payments.
  • It turns out that in the financial crisis, big banks with high leverage ratios — that is, more capital relative to assets — were significantly more likely to survive without needing bailouts.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • “The current rules can be very easily gamed,”
  • thinks that regulators would be better off to seek simplicity through measures like leverage ratios, rather than allow banks to make calculations that depend on thousands of estimates to determine how much capital they need.
Gene Ellis

Deepening divide over Elbe dredging | Germany | DW.COM | 19.12.2016 - 0 views

www.dw.com/...a-36833744

Hamburg Ports Shipping

shared by Gene Ellis on 20 Dec 16 - No Cached
  • Deepening divide over Elbe dredging
  • The Marco Polo, for example, carries 16,000 containers and has a draft (the vertical distance between waterline and ship's keel) of 16 meters. Given present river depths and tides, such ships can only enter Hamburg at certain times and when not fully loaded.
  • Tidal range is a prime cause for erosion, which previous river dredging, as well as waves generated by passing ships, have exacerbated
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • As the river deepens, more seawater from the North Sea flows at a faster rate towards Hamburg, bringing sediment that builds up on the riverbed. The Hamburg Port Authority dredges the river to counteract the build up, which cost taxpayers 120 million euros ($125 million) in 2015.
  • The two projects amount to an expensive redundancy, Siegert said, with the JadeWeserPort costing $1.6 billion and the Elbe project an additional $940 million. "This is the reason for our protest: They decided on the first port, and now they should coordinate traffic, so that the really large ships can go to Wilhelmshaven or, under certain restrictions, to Hamburg."
Gene Ellis

Eurozone crisis will last for 20 years - FT.com - 0 views

www.ft.com/...97-11e1-963a-00144feabdc0.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 09 Jul 12 - No Cached
  • They agreed that there shall be no common bank recapitalisation until a full banking union is established. And the Bundesbank has reminded us that the latter is not possible without a political union. The logical implication is that we won’t solve the crisis for the next 20 years.
  • What we know now is that Germany will not agree to mutualised deposit insurance. It cannot even agree to give the European Stability Mechanism a banking licence so that it can leverage itself.
  • A narrow majority is still in favour of the euro, but a majority is against further rescues.
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • The banking union that is required is the one Germany will not accept: central regulation and supervision, a common restructuring fund and common deposit insurance. It would take years to create.
  • With interest rates on 10-year government bonds over 6 per cent, neither Italy nor Spain can sustain their membership in the eurozone. This is what Mario Monti and Mariano Rajoy should have made clear to Angela Merkel at the summit.
  • The message I took away from the summit is that the eurozone will not resolve the crisis. In that sense, it was indeed a “historic” meeting.
  • Gene Ellis on 09 Jul 12
     
    Wolfgang Munchau article
Gene Ellis

"Europe's Divided Visionaries" by Barry Eichengreen | Project Syndicate - 0 views

www.project-syndicate.org/...europe-s-divided-visionaries

europe barry project syndicate

shared by Gene Ellis on 18 Jul 12 - No Cached
  • Europe’s leaders now agree on a vision of what the EU should become: an economic and monetary union complemented by a banking union, a fiscal union, and a political union. The trouble starts as soon as the discussion moves on to how – and especially when – the last three should be established.
  • The 1992 exchange-rate crisis then tipped the balance. Once Europe’s exchange-rate system blew up, the southerners’ argument that Europe could not afford to postpone creating the euro carried the day.
  • The consequences have not been happy. Monetary union without banking, fiscal, and political union has been a disaster.CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraph
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • But disaster does not wait.
    • Gene Ellis
      Gene Ellis on 18 Jul 12
       
      'disaster does not wait' is a fairly ambiguous phrase.  The euro zone has had a decade to work on institutions, with little result, and with proposals which had often made things worse.
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