What's striking about Spain, from an American perspective, is how much its economic story resembles our own. Like America, Spain experienced a huge property bubble, accompanied by a huge rise in private-sector debt. Like America, Spain fell into recession when that bubble burst, and has experienced a surge in unemployment. And like America, Spain has seen its budget deficit balloon thanks to plunging revenues and recession-related costs.
But unlike America, Spain is on the edge of a debt crisis. The U.S. government is having no trouble financing its deficit, with interest rates on long-term federal debt under 3 percent. Spain, by contrast, has seen its borrowing cost shoot up in recent weeks, reflecting growing fears of a possible future default.
Why is Spain in so much trouble? In a word, it's the euro.
Spain risks falling into the same trap as Greece, these investors say, unless it takes more forceful action. It could find itself unable to raise money on the private markets at acceptable interest rates - even though its government debt burden, as a share of the overall economy, is only half what Greece carries.
At almost 20 percent, Spain suffers the second-highest unemployment rate in the European Union. But the rate for those just entering the job market is twice as high. This month, Madrid wants to push through far-reaching labor market reforms. But opposition promises to be fierce.
Financial turmoil in Europe is no longer a problem of small, peripheral economies like Greece. What's under way right now is a full-scale market run on the much larger economies of Spain and Italy. At this point countries in crisis account for about a third of the euro area's G.D.P., so the common European currency itself is under existential threat.
Ratings agency Fitch cut Spain's credit rating due to weak growth prospects, dealing a blow to efforts to rein in spending and ease fears of a Greek-style crisis. US stocks slid and the euro weakened on the news.
The euro rebounded on Thursday after China reaffirmed its long-term strategy of diversifying currency holdings away from the dollar and denied it was reviewing its holdings of euro sovereign bonds.
The Portuguese government Thursday followed Spain's lead in agreeing with the main opposition party on more austerity measures to cut the deficit faster than planned, to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product next year from 9.4 percent last year.