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cody s

Why George W. Bush Will Decide the 2012 Election - Newsweek and The Daily Beast - 3 views

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    This article addresses the effect of George Bush's legacy on the current election and how it was reflected in the conventions. Clinton, in his speech at the DNC, compared the net job creation of the two parties. This article says that ultimately, not just this sentence but Clinton's entire speech came down to that point: evoking the successes of the Democrats while reminding voters of the many failures of George W. Bush. Clinton's presence, the article says, turned the race into Obama and Clinton vs. Romney and Bush. The article cites some interesting historical examples of presidents who were able to win despite the temporary unpopularity of their parties at the time, and how those candidates distanced themselves from the failed policies with concrete, factual differences in their philosophies. Romney, the article says, has failed to do so.
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    I'd also add that it's no coincidence, like Eli's article mentions, that Bush wasn't even at the Republican National Convention, contrasting Clinton's overwhelming presence at the DNC. In the same way that Obama is using Clinton to his benefit, I agree that Romney needs to distinguish himself from Bush in a deeper way than physical distance. For me, this comes down to his fiscal policy. He hasn't painted his plan for recovery (as a "fix-it man") in any terms other than blanket conservatism. One strategy I saw a little of in the Romney speech, like you mention, is the use of history. I'm wondering which would work better for his image: evoking situations where a fiscal conservative US thrived before Bush, or separating himself from Republican party of the past in any way he can. From what I can tell, creating his own distinct image seems like Romney's best bet.
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    It is interesting how past presidents influence voting. At the DNC, Obama compared his deep doubts and controversy to those experienced by Lincoln. I doubt voters today have any idea that Lincoln was a Republican. I think I remember Romney quoting FDR in his speech even though his position about government's role in solving economic problems is in many ways the opposite of FDR. The article suggests that the only way for Romney to shake the ghost of Bush would be to define himself as a strong, distinct character like Eisenhower. Can a successful businessman do what a successful general did? It's hard to imagine how.
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    Great post. I really enjoyed reading this article because I do believe that the legacy of the last elected party plays a major role in future elections. If a president from a particular party succeeds in his own term, his political party gains more credibility because people will connect a president's success with his party. For example(hypothetically speaking), If a democratic president successfully relieves the U.S from economic depression, in the future if depression occurs people would begin to think a democrat is the right candidate to fix the problem.
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    I agree that the Republican's avoidance of anything too heavily Bush-related is not working in their favor, and like this article notes, whenever a political sensitivity makes a candidate vulnerable, ignoring it is certainly not the best course of action. But this article also shows how Romney is just not well-suited to actually addressing the past failures of Republicans, both because of the early failures in his campaign to sell himself as the type of economically-focused candidate voters want and his unclear values and opinions, and makes it clear that the Republican who will erase the legacy of Bush will not be Romney.
Eli Melrod

The Elephant in the Room - 5 views

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    This article stood out to me, because it is exactly why I see Romney's plans as a completely the opposite of what American needs: they aren't any different than George W. Bush's. Americans saw what happened under George W. Bush, and nobody wants to go back to that. This line in the piece really summed up why Romney is doing so poorly, "To win the kind of victory that conservatives seem to think they should be winning, the Republican Party needs two things: A domestic agenda that offers more to hard-pressed families than just generic conservative rhetoric about the genius of capitalism, and a foreign policy program that reflects the hard lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan." As a liberal, I would never vote for Mitt Romney, but I do understand that the economy is not where a lot of people wanted it to be after Obama's first term. The question is: can Romney do a better job? I see a lot of similarities between Romney's policies and George W. Bush's policies, so I think that the economy would do worse. If other Americans, like the author of this article, see the same similarities, I don't see how Romney can win in November.
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    I think learning from Bush-era policies, like you said, is the best way to figure out what to do (or not do). When we talked in class about how complicated and unrelatable fiscal policy is, I kept wondering what ideology *actually* works and how we can be certain. Looking back on past failures seems like the only way to relly know. If we implement the policies you're talking about, which arguably led to the recession, why should we expect something different? I don't know that much about economics, but I agree with you. If Bush's fiscal policy is what really did set the stage for the economy to tank, I can't discern big enough differences in Romney's platform - "generic conservative rhetoric" - to expect something better. If anything, the article describes Romney's plan as a watered-down version of Bush's, which raises different concerns for me.
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    It is always interesting to hear about Republican positions like the idea that Romney is not doing well because "left controlled education shaped the Millennials." There is probably something to this. Also, I agree with Eli as far as the specifics that Romney and Ryan have offered so far. They sound just like George W. Bush and it is pretty clear that politically he needs to separate himself from Bush. I just read and posted an article on the effect of tax cuts on economic growth. It is pretty clear that historically tax cuts have not done much to improve growth. However, this article says that the Republicans acknowledge the failings of the Bush plan and promise more responsibility. Maybe they do know they need to offer more and will hear about tax reform and other things in the debates. It is pretty clear from Romney's behavior this week that he is not taking a more nuanced position on foreign policy.
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    I think it is interesting, and absurd, how the Republican Party has looked for things to blame on some of their failings on. That being said, I also think it is unfair that past President's records affect prospective candidates chances, on either side of the political spectrum. Just because Romney is in the same political party as Bush dos not mean he will do similar things(even though he probably will do some). I agree with Anna that Romney and Ryan need to separate from Bush to establish that they are not the same and will not have the same results. Regardless of their policies I believe that candidates should be evaluated on their merits, and while the past should be considered, and their merits alone. To me, that is what this article is really saying.
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    Cameron, I agree with your idea - that parties can shift, and individual candidates shouldn't be bound into the economic principles of their party - but until Romney provides substantive plans for the economy, all anyone is going to hear from his campaign is the same conservative "free market" rhetoric that they heard from the Bush campaign. What he needs to do is lay out a specific plan and note what he's learned from the economic failure under Bush and how that has shaped his plan.
Anna Schutte

The Problem with "Four Sore Years" by Nicole Gelinas - City Journal - 3 views

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    This article is from the website of a conservative think tank, The Manhattan Institute. It's interesting to read a conservative criticize Romney for being out of touch with the American people when he focuses his economic argument on only the "four sore years" of the Obama administration. She highlights the number of times Romney referred to 4 years during the debate missing his opportunity to acknowledge that Americans know that the economy crashed well before 2009. She aptly states that Americans remember well the "white as a ghost" President Bush, "the panicked Congress", the "helpless" GOP standard bearer, McCain. She also points out that Americans are feeling like we already hit bottom and that it's not the time to focus only on the negative. Given that she seems more nuanced in her thinking, I was particularly interested to read her criticisms of Obama's reaction to the financial crisis, especially, according to her, his missed opportunity to encourage states to fix their pension and benefit problems, by bailing them out temporarily with the stimulus money.
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    It pains me to think that I could sit down in front of a presidential candidate ask them a very specific question and I would get the same vague response that they give to everybody. Romney could bring forth some honesty and just admit it was not all Obama's fault and that the problem was before the last four years. There has to be an acceptance of the real issue in order to move forward. I think Romney could bring light to his campaign by simply being honest about this economic issue that is a big part of the election.
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    This was a good read. I like the specific question from the second debate that the author singled out, because it struck me as so significant at the time. From the beginning of the election, I have been noticing that the candidates are apt to create the timelines of the recession that suit them: a longer one benefits Obama, and a shorter one Romney. As you said, Anna, the four year timeline could make Romney appear out of touch with Americans who think about Bush, etc., but I honestly wonder how much of a problem this is for him. The President is such an easy target for this kind of short-term criticism, and while I agree that the author's train of thought is insightful and nuanced, I wonder how many people are going to make the same connection as her. I personally think it's smart for Romney to stick to his simple, Obama-failed-where-I'll-succeed attack as one that will resonate with a lot of people and not alienate that many (besides the Democrat-leaning voters who wouldn't vote for him anyway).
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    This is an interesting article. I think the Romney campaign is torn between blaming Obama for the recession, which voters will know is false, and blaming him for the slow recovery, which will implicate Republican policies in the failure. He's navigating this limbo by making intentionally vague references to the last four years, hoping that people will only remember the economic hardships of recent years without thinking too long or hard about where they came from.
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    I am glad you posted this, as it offers a different type of critique of Romney. I read an essay like this from another conservative think tank criticizing Romney's energy policies and they both have expanded my perspective, it seems that more disparaging reviews of candidates from within their parties are more productive. It's interesting to consider what Romney would be like as a more positive candidate and how he might end up like an Obama from 2008. The benefits of an optimistic, or at least more constructive, campaign are great. This article also highlights something which comes up a lot for me when thinking about the election, in which candidates really under-estimate their constituencies' intelligence. There is definitely a difference between selling the perspective you want to use to win and ignoring the reality of what people know.
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    After the election, it's pretty clear that "four sore years" didn't work. I wonder if there was really much else Romney could have focused on. I think Romney dug himself more holes than he holes he really dug for Obama. There were Republican governors running for reelection talking about how great the economy was while Romney was running for president talking about how bad it was. It really shows how you can spin a situation any way to suit you.
John West

Karl Rove: He's Back, Big Time - Businessweek - 4 views

  • Wynn’s preference for anonymity in such transactions posed no obstacle. That’s the whole idea behind Crossroads GPS.
  • unlimited, undisclosed contributions from industrialists, financiers, and other loaded insiders
  • To maintain its supporters’ anonymity, a social welfare group like GPS must not have a “primary purpose” of a political nature, and it cannot coordinate strategy with candidates.
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  • unlimited-outside-money boom
  • the Crossroads-led offensive is collectively poised to spend more than $1 billion on the 2012 elections, according to Republican operatives. That’s roughly twice—repeat: twice—what Democrats expect to spend by means of their super PACs and social welfare groups.
  • The Democrat turned down public money, revealed himself to be a fundraising dervish, and outspent his opponent by nearly two-to-one.
  • some on the right “decided to create an enduring entity as a counterbalance.” Those entities are the Crossroads groups.
  • Rove pitched his proposed startup as a more professional alternative, one built to have impact in 2010 but endure long beyond. “The business model of a consultant-driven, vendor-directed entity that hired itself increasingly lacked credibility with donors and was unsustainable,” Rove explains.
  • “Conservative activists tend to act like six-year-olds on soccer teams,” he explains, “with everyone grouping around the ball and getting in each other’s way. Karl’s idea was that all of these organizations should share information, coordinate polling, reduce redundancy.”
  • many of those who are squealing the loudest now [about Crossroads] are the same people who were mute when groups on the left were pioneering the use of 527s and 501(c)(4)s. … Liberals cheered then but are now quick to try and stop conservatives from using the techniques they used in the past.
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    I was really interested by the section of the Conrad reading that dealt with campaign funding. This article details Karl Rove, one of the biggest names in political finance who has masterminded the Republican switch from "hard" (personal donations) to "soft" ("social welfare") funding. Many think of him as the man who kept Bush Jr. afloat for two terms, and now Romney has him in charge of funneling donations from massively wealthy, anonymous Republicans into a "social welfare organization" (to be spent on anti-Obama ads). Groups likes these on either side are part of what Rove refers to as the "unlimited-outside-money boom." While Republicans are not the only guilty party, I find it really disturbing that groups like American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS can be legally separate from the Romney campaign itself. This loophole encourages aggressive ads and a totally out-of-control budget - more than a billion dollars - during the campaigning. The advertising machine developed by the Romney campaign has twice the budget of Obama's: if he can't keep up, how could any less mainstream candidate even hope to? This article makes a really strong case for limiting spending. Rove makes a point about keeping the parties themselves stronger, but it was not enough to sell the idea to me. The grimmest part is the story of one-upping Rove gives: he created Crossroads as a response to Obama's doubling of the Republican budget in the last race, pointing out that this cycle could continue.
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    One of the ideas that stuck with me the most after reading this article about an issue that is certainly controversial, but somewhat unavoidable, was the quote you also brought up, which is that Karl Rove is invested in "[solidifying] Republican control in Washington, not subvert[ing] the party system." This paradox is really fascinating and seems masked by subtlety. By strengthening and giving great power to the Republican party, both in Congress and through the President, I would assume that the party system would be thoroughly changed. Even though a Democrat could run for the next term, if Rove is right in saying that this new way of campaign financing and organizing is cyclical, it seems like "Republican control in Washington" could turn into a more lasting situation. But because this article addressed the growing Democratic campaign financing world, which I have always struggled to learn more about, it is difficult to say if the growth of Republican resources would really change anything. If Democrats soon catch up in terms of their financial abilities and "receive unlimited, undisclosed contributions from industrialists, financiers, and other loaded insiders," then wouldn't it just elevate the scale of presidential campaigning, and the classic dynamics of the race would remain the same?
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    This article's description of Karl Rove's 501c4, which is supposed to be a non-profit, social welfare agency sharing offices with his 527 super-pac is very disturbing. It seems that it should be breaking some law that they share executives, employees, consultants, etc. The definition of "social welfare" in politics is a very slippery idea. So much has been made of the Supreme Court's Citizen's United decision's effect on the Repulblican's ability to raise huge amounts of money, I had no idea that the Democrats had been doing the same thing for a long time. The article refers to a book by Brendan Doherty, The Rise of the President's Permanent Campaign. The title itself exposes a sad truth about our political system. It never seems to end. It is wrong that all this money floods into "social welfare" agencies to research and pay for endless political ads when there is so much real work to be done to help real people. I can't help but wonder whether we can consider a system like France where politicians can only campaign for a short period of time or whether we should have a law that a president can only serve one six year term. He can then work on his agenda instead of always thinking about the next election.
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    I found this really interesting, especially being in the campaign finance small group for the presentation. The article does a good job describing the confusing nuances of 501s and 527s (superpacs and social welfare groups), but what I found the most interesting was the discussion of Obama's vilification of the Citizens United decision. The decision definitely hurt the Democratic party and gave the Republicans an advantage in the world of campaign finance, and this article seems to accuse Obama of deliberately misrepresenting the decision to make it seem worse than it was.
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    The part that stuck out to me in this article was when Rove tried to act as if unions and corporations should have the same rights. Unions represent large groups of people working for companies (i.e. the United Auto Workers). The people in these unions are generally blue-collar, working class people. Corporations on the other hand are all about making money. To me, it seems much more fair for unions to be able to run politically driven ads than corporations, but I'm not sure how that would work legally.
Eli Melrod

We Need a 'Conservative' Party - 6 views

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    I found this op-ed piece interesting, because I think it gets at the underlying problem with the current Republican party: there is no room for middle ground, because nowadays that means weakness. Although a centrist to philosophy to all problems does not work, I thought Friedman painted a nice picture of why little gets done in Washington due to the stark contrasts between the two parties. Basically, radicalization of the Republican party is one of the biggest problems with the current political situation.
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    I really liked this piece. The terrifying part to me (the author points this out really well) isn't just how little gets done, but how little gets talked about. The list of three other massive issues - more demanding and globalized jobs, energy crisis, and immigration - can hardly be brought up with the radicalization of the parties you mentioned. The reason this election is "about" jobs and the economy is that it is the only issue the parties can agree to disagree about constructively. Any one of the others, I think, would become about ideology and not about reaching a sensible compromise.
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    This article, to me, really does address the main obstacle to becoming a united nation, which is radicals on either side of the political spectrum, but particularly conservatives. As a conservative myself, I find that often times I am frustrated by how stubborn or radical the leaders of the Republicans can be and this article makes an excellent point as to how that is affecting our nation. What our leaders need to understand is that they are never going to fully get their way, but instead they need to learn to compromise. Otherwise, nothing will get done. I agree with John that all of the other important issues need to be addressed, but they can't because of the radical ideals of a few powerful people.
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    This editorial, along with John's article, show how important it is for the Republicans to become less radical. John's article shows that Karl Rove is actually already trying to do this by supporting more traditionally, conservative politicians and publicly taking more moderate stances. However, Romney and most of the Republican ads continue to cater to the radical right and their "no new taxes" and anti government positions. I wonder what would happen if Romney actually took the more moderate positions of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush. Would he lose the Republican base? I also found Murdoch's observation about immigrants being "natural Republicans" very interesting. Is this because they he imagines they have more conservative social opinions?
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    This one really echoes a lot of what I've been hearing about the republican party. It seems like the tea-partiers have gotten big enough that the Republicans are shifting to the right so as to avoid a tea party candidate cropping up and splitting the vote (I read that somewhere, don't remember where). This issue really just reinforces, for me at least, the problems with the two-party system. Instead of having three parties, two for sane people and one for the tea partiers, the republicans have found themselves in a situation where they're straddling the widening chasm between moderates and radicals, and it seems to me like they've chosen the radical side as their base.
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    I found this article interesting because it addresses the problems with both parties concerning national debt. I really enjoyed how the article poked fun at the election, saying " we celebrate the fact that it might include a serious debate about one of the four great issues of the day, though even that is not clear yet". After reading this article, I am beginning to think more of a conservative approach is needed to fix the issue in America concerning debt. Although in the past conservative presidents(George Bush Sr., Reagan) have used tax revenue and budget cuts to fix debt, I do not think it is out of reach for President Obama to fix debt issues in another 4 years if he takes a more "right-winged" approach. I do believe the job of fixing national debt is not the job for a radical member of the G.O.P or a very strong liberal, but for the best candidate who can make the most people happy while doing what is best for the country with a strong approach.
Anna Schutte

Do Tax Cuts Lead to Economic Growth? - 3 views

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    This piece begins to shake out the specific effects tax cuts have on economic growth. With so much general back and forth arguing about this, it is useful to look at the graph included in this article and try to understand what it really tells us. The graph that maps the economic growth between 1987 and 2005 clearly shows that the economy grew dramatically after the Bush and Clinton tax increases and dropped dramatically after the Bush tax cuts. But, what is most interesting is the discussion about other factors affecting the economy. Paul Ryan says that the increase was affected by the tech boom, lower trade barriers and peace. According to the conservative economists, the economy had already slowed before Bush's tax cuts and surprisingly, Glen Hubbard, who helped write Bush's plan is quoted saying that, " tax cut's don't translate quickly into higher growth. According to the Tax Policy Center, a "highly regarded" non-partisan group, "it's hard to make the argument that tax rates have a big effect on economic growth." So, this makes me wonder, what exactly are Ryan and Romney proposing and why do they think it will improve the economy? One very interesting point that is made is that tax cuts did make a difference when to top marginal rate was 70%..who knew that it was ever that high. According to this article, between, 1940 and 1980, taxes were that high at tech top. That is very different than today's 35%.
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    This article seems to get one step closer to answering the question of "what actually works?" Like Ryan is saying, I don't think it's possible to graph growth and expect the points you mark to be the only ones creating the trends, but this in itself does not seem like a promising point for the Republican campaign: worst case scenario, the cuts do the damage the nytimes chart seems to imply, best case scenario, they do very little to bring growth back up. Neither one of these would be points for the campaign to highlight. What you're saying also makes me wonder exactly how central tax cuts are to the Romney fiscal plan. As a side note, the way that Ryan cites the circumstances of Bush's presidency for the downturn is funny to me, considering how they want Obama to take the responsibility for the entire recession.
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    I don't have much to add here, but I fully support at tax rate of 70% or so after someone's income has reached a certain mark. That will never happen in America, but if we look at a lot of other countries in the world with high taxes, they have far fewer expenses to pay for (i.e. education, healthcare, etc.)
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    This is interesting. It's important to be thinking that there obviously were other factors going on during all these periods, but with all the discussion of - like John says - whether tax cuts actually work or not, this graph is an interesting way of understanding their role in the economy.
John West

Week 4: A teachable moment for the United States on its role in the Middle East | Danie... - 0 views

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    Week 4. This opinion piece looks at the foreign policy credentials of both candidates, especially in light of the embassy storming in Libya and other similar incidents in the Middle this past week. The author paints this interval as weak for both Romney and Obama: Romney for his bizarre and inflammatory comments just after the murder of the ambassador and members of his staff, and Obama for not painting a clear picture of American intentions regarding the attack ("the only thing that can be said for Barack Obama's leadership this week is that he's not Mitt Romney"). He points to the increasing public unease about our presence in the Middle East as the perfect opportunity, a "teachable moment," for Obama to make his position clear. The author presents a conflicting message: as a foreign policy advisor, he would suggest this type of speech, but as a campaign advisor, he would warn against it. With all the talk of the Bush legacy in mind, I think this topic could be of huge advantage to both candidates (more so for Obama) if it were used properly. Obama has the chance to distance himself from the early-2000's surge that much of the public regards as a disaster, and distinguish the profile he plans on having in the region from bumbling foreign policy. I think the strides he has made in his first term toward ending our conflicts are pretty questionable. However, he seems in a prime position right now to ride out whatever he has accomplished for the next few months. Romney kind of made a fool of himself after the attacks, and Obama is not really capitalizing on this. It seems he's been doing good work on this front (the way he has been handling the protests in Egypt, according to the article, has been really skilled and professional) and he should flaunt it more. Similarly, a really strong statement of purpose in the Middle East might help Romney recover. The way he described foreign policy during the RNC does basically nothing to distinguish him from Bush for me. As
Anna Schutte

Mitt Romney's Missing Foreign Policy - 2 views

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    This editorial written by Danielle Pletka, of the conservative American Enterprise Institute criticizes Romney's foreign policy speech on Monday October 8th for offering little in the way of either vision or specifics to separate himself from Obama. Plettka writes that Romney, "sensed an opening" in foreign policy after the Obama administration appeared to bungle the September 11 Libyan attack. She says that Romney needs to show voters that "he's not simply George Bush retread" itching to declare war on Iran and Syria. It is interesting that this conservative thinks that no Republicans have made a case that they will actually do anything differently than Obama. She suggests that Romney help voters connect American global power with prosperity, its dominance of the world's important waterways with flourishing trade and the exporting of democratic ideals with more open "nourished markets. She refers to the importance of the US's "benign" influence since WWII. Look up benign..it doesn't mean the war, death and violence we seen in Iraq and Afghanistan . What she means is that the U.S. has never interfered for 'malevolent" reasons. It's hard to imagine how the US would be perceived as benign in all of the military intervention.
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    This connects pretty well to Miles' most recent post, and reinforces the feeling I have that foreign policy isn't that substantial in this election. It seems like a tool Romney can use to attack Obama, to, as you said, "sense an opening." The economy is not just what people seem more concerned about, it's the part of the race that substantive debate actually comes out of. Both presidents have good and bad marks on their record in terms of economy, while I still think Romney has little substantive to say about foreign policy. What you are saying about a "benign" influence is part of what I think Ryan flubbed during the debate: when asked if the US should intervene for humanitarian reasons, he started stuttering and going back to only putting troops on the ground for US security. Whether you believe in a "benign" reason for US action in the Middle East, I agree with the author that Romney needs to work harder to put this image forward, true or not. I'm a little confused about the author's claim that Romney is going to do things the same as Obama: in terms of Iran and his stance on the scale of US military power, they seem entirely different to me. Also (the article reminded me of this), what does Romney/Ryan hope to gain by pushing the whole Russia-as-a-threat angle? It seems pretty pointless to me.
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    This article shows pretty well a lot of what we've seen of Romney. It seems like his campaign is just based on criticizing Obama, and since there's an opening in the foreign policy area he's moved away from the economy. He's looking for criticisms to make without offering substantive policy proposals, and I think that's because Obama's policies are basically centrist policies. It's a weird situation that Obama, as a moderate, has this unique ability to inspire so much vitriol among the conservative right, and Romney's trying to capitalize.
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    I'm in the foreign policy group for the issues project at school, and I can tell you with certainty that the differences between Obama and Romney in terms of foreign policy are very small. It is more of a philosophical difference. In reality, the troops will leave Afghanistan in 2014, we will most likely not send troops to Syria or Iran, and we will continue to support Israel, regardless of who is president. Romney is really just trying to create a contrast between his foreign policy and Obama's, but there aren't any major differences, so he has latched onto this whole Libya thing.
cody s

Andrew Sullivan on the Promise of Obama's Second Term - Newsweek and The Daily Beast - 5 views

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    This article addresses the potential of Obama's second term. Andrew Sullivan is a great writer (you all should look at his blog) and in this piece he predicts that in the event of an Obama win, several things would happen. First, he says, the Republican party would (might) experience a kind of whiplash from its extreme radicalization and loss, becoming more moderate. This - the cooperation of the Republicans in the Senate - could allow Obama to become a bi-partisan hero, dealing with the deficit and immigration reform. Why he chose Reagan to compare to I don't really know, but it's an interesting read.
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    The part about the "whiplash" for the Republican Party that you mention is compelling to me, partly because I've read things (I think a few on this Diigo group) that have suggested the exact opposite. Some Democrats are hoping that the radicalization of the Republican Party will continue and make a Democrat victory in 2016 a sure thing. What Sullivan is suggesting seems to make more sense. What he portrays as an entirely new second-term America under Obama seems to fit perfectly with the President's message of "finishing the job," and frankly strikes me as a little idealistic. The section on the first page that describes the unique conditions for a Reagan status second term (tax cuts, deficit was smaller, etc.) is very telling to me: from what I can tell, these circumstances don't exist in the same way today. For him to transform into the "bi-partisan hero" you are talking about with things like immigration reform, it seems like he will need to not simply "finish the job," but take on a totally new strategy (like, as Sullivan points out, Reagan did in his second term).
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    This is a very compelling argument for giving Obama 4 more years to finish what he has started. Even though it talks about "potential not prediction." More and more I'm understanding that Reagan was more of a centrist and more practical than idealogical.
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    I like the idea in this article that you brought up Cody, about Obama becoming a widely supported bipartisan President if he wins again, but it is pretty debased throughout by the constant references to today's great polarization between left and right. While the great partisanship between states and people and politicians is mentioned about other ideas, it seems pretty dreamy to think Obama could sidestep this in terms of his own legacy. Though Obama may not be able to change how the right perceives him, I think the difference between Sullivan's prediction about Republicans becoming more centrist compared to earlier ideas we have discussed where Republicans just become further absorbed in their sparsely-supported and deeply conservative views is really interesting and I am fascinated to see how that plays out. I can see how another win for Obama would lead Republicans to reconsider their platform and targeted voting blocs, but also the idea of withdrawing into their misguided viewpoints in a protectionist-type way also makes sense.
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    Well, it looks like what Sullivan predicted is right. The Republicans did experience a "whiplash" for all of their super right wing policies. I heard an interesting statistic that if the Republicans hadn't been able to do so much redistricting for their house seats, demographically, they would have lost the majority in the house.
Jonah Schacter

Sandy and Chris Christie: Lessons from Hurricane Betsy in 1965. - Slate Magazine - 4 views

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    This article shows that in times of need the federal government can really help states. With hurricane Sandy the majority of New Jersey was destroyed and the republican governor Chris Christie was welcome to the federal aid that was given. If Romney was president at the time of the hurricane he would have left it up to the states to rebuild themselves. Sandy is a clear example of how the federal government is for the benefit of the country its inhabitants. The author also brings up Hurricane Betsy, which took place in 1965 and how the governor of Louisiana (who once thought about seceding from the country) realized how the federal government is a necessity in this country. 
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    The whole Chris Christie response has been fascinating to me during the Sandy aftermath. The way he completely shifted on Obama was really clear on the news clip I saw, where his agressive attack on Obama's ability to lead the country was superimposed with his really profound praise for him during FEMA. I agree with what you're saying about Sandy saying something real about the rhetoric of government spending. It's one thing to criticize government programs like FEMA during a period of calm, and much, much harder when they are being implemented effectively right in front of you. In the end, though, Christie's switch might not have been much of a switch at all. As someone mentioned in class, FEMA is already in large part state run and in large part private. He was likely showing a better understanding of it.
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    This is an interesting article. You could (for fun, not really as a legitimate exercise) expand this as a metaphor for the problem with conservatism: it works for the rich, or the people unaffected by the hurricane, but to the poor and the hurricane-affected liberal philosophy is clearly superior. I wonder how much Sandy and Christie actually helped Obama - I read somewhere that Obama jumped a whole percentage point the day after Christie praised him, though who really can ever explain a poll bounce with any certainty.
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    It is important to keep in mind the difference between FEMA's response to Katrina during the Bush Administration when it was led by someone who had little disaster experience and FEMA's response to Sandy. This article shows that when political rhetoric is dropped, people do want government to help with disasters. It would seem that government organizations during administrations that take government roles seriously are more likely to have strong government services. I guess that might be wishful thinking.
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    I pretty much agree with what all you guys are saying. I think Hurricane Sandy has been a good reminder of the need for government services and problem we have with climate change. Hopefully, people will learn from this horrific storm.
Jonah Schacter

Sanford Jay Rosen: Don't Get Fooled Again: Why Liberals and Progressives Should Vote En... - 3 views

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    This article is about the importance of voting and how voting for a third party candidate or no candidate at all will solve no problems. Just because a candidate does not always persent the best ideas the whole picture has to be viewed. In the case of Obama-Romney many people say that Obama has not had a "good" term and will therefore not vote for him, but my feelings towards that is Romney is not going to do any better and no third party candidate will have a chance to win. The author brings up the point that even if you are in a state that will surely vote one way that you should still cast your vote. Being in California for most of us what is the incentive to vote if we know the state is going blue? I think that in this system with the electoral college it is hard for me to see the point in voting if my vote will not really count that much. Just wondering thoughts on this topic of voting.
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    I agree with what you're saying about the big picture being important in the elections, but I have a problem with what the author says about third party candidates. For me, the big picture means more than just thinking about the 2012 election. From what I can tell, there's always going to be an excuse for giving up on a third party vote and handing it to a mainstream candidate: if it's Romney this year, it's going to be someone different in 2016 and someone else in 2020. If there is ever going to be even the slightest hope for a third party candidate, I feel pretty strongly about people voting for the one they believe in. If someone who believes in what the green party stands for, but votes based on the belief that it has no "chance to win" like you're saying, it becomes self-fulfilling. The author's attitude feels kind of lazy to me, asking anyone liberal-leaning to begrudgingly support a candidate just to keep another one out of office. Even if it's one hundred percent guaranteed that a third party won't win in this election, I'm wondering how anyone expect one to be viable if people don't simply start voting for it.
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    As much as I agree with John's position, I feel that there must be a better way to promote a third party. Not voting and voting for third party candidates gave us Nixon and Bush, and in this close election could give us Romney. Romney's campaign is now trying to convince voters that he is more centrist on many issues including social justice and civil rights issues. I agree with the author that if you care about a woman's right to choose and gay marriage that voting for a third party candidate could give Romney the election and the possibility of him choosing a Supreme Court justice who could change the course of events and threaten civil rights.
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    This article is pretty interesting. I think that the "third-party debate" is an interesting one, and I don't know exactly where I stand on it. On one hand, I really do think that the two-party system and the electoral college, together, hurt the purity of the American democratic policy. On the other hand, in an election like this, I think it would be irresponsible to vote for a third-party candidate as a liberal. Romney could win, and every vote that goes to a green-party candidate is a vote taken away from Obama. It really is a bad situation for voters, but that's just how it is.
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    This is a little unrelated, but I see the best bet at third party happening in America is the formation of a new party for the Tea Party. The Tea Party is very different than the mainstream Republican party. Michelle Bachman is in a whole other universe than Mitt Romney politically. If Mitt Romney loses the election, I really think the Republican party has some serious thinking to do about how they want to shape their party. It is completely unhelpful to the democratic process to have people like Michelle Bachman and Mitt Romney in the same party. Michelle Bachman has basically absurd views, stating things like the number 2 to Hillary Clinton is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Mitt Romney is much more reasonable. I don't know how if this will actually happen, but I could definitely see a Tea Party forming as their own party.
John West

Obama Can Say 'Climate' After All | The Nation - 5 views

  • “yes, my plan will continue to reduce the carbon pollution that is heating our planet, because climate change is not a hoax. More droughts and floods and wildfires are not a joke. They are a threat to our children’s future.”
  • Even George W. Bush, for all his resistance to tackling climate change, never made fun of it.
  • president’s own statements, before last night, have not been terribly reassuring either, if only because there have been so few of them.
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  • Obama appears not to have brought up “climate change” publicly a single time in 2012.
  • promised to “be very clear in voicing my belief that we’re going to have to take further steps to deal with climate change in a serious way.”
  • Even as his own government’s scientists were affirming climate change’s connection to the extreme weather events of 2012, the president declined to use his bully pulpit to make the connection clear to the public, much less attempt to rally Americans to action.
  • assumed that talking about climate change turns voters off: it’s too dark, too controversial, too complicated
  • “Three out of four Americans now acknowledge climate disruption is real, and more than two out of three believe we should be doing something about it,
  • In 2008, it looked as though Barack Obama would be the hero to lead such a quest. Now, his speech in Charlotte has raised hopes among some environmentalists that Obama, after an extended absence, may be ready to rejoin the battle
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    This article addresses a point that hit home with me from the Democratic National Convention: Obama brought up climate, but did not champion it in the same style and with the same conviction that he used to. Even while I was struck by his lack of gusto on the subject, the article is surprised that he brought it up at all. This issue has seen barely any coverage at all, with Romney in particular suggesting that even caring about climate change is shallow and ungrounded. He has continued to basically ridicule Obama's (self-proclaimed) devotion to the issue, which is not typical even for mainstream republicans. Obama himself has been almost entirely silent on the issue for the entire campaign (he brought up the term once in 2012). This article makes a really good partner for the first one Eli posted, which dealt with the variety of issues that the radicalization of parties has effectively silenced the debate over. As with the issue of immigration, we see the Republican Party leaning extremely right and making any productive discussion of the issue difficult. If Romney himself treats climate change as a joke and mocks environmentalism as a cause, how can the sides even begin to discuss specific issues of policy? I am honestly really doubtful of Obama's stance as an environmentalist: after the failure of one of his recent cap-and-trade policies, the term "climate change" was entirely avoided in his speech. I remember Dan saying in class that if Obama didn't claim to champion these issues during his presidency, you wouldn't be able to tell by his policy. From this article's description of his rhetoric for the last year, I would say that now he is neither talking the talk nor walking the walk, leaving his affiliation to this cause simply to the fact that he is a Democratic candidate and climate change is a "Democratic issue". To me, there is concrete proof that neither candidate has been taking climate change seriously this election. If both candidates are treating this
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    Climate change is just one of many issues that Obama must discuss in a specific way as to not seem too revolutionary nor liberal (I like how this article mentions that "Democratic politicians have shunned the "L word": liberal"). Every mention has to be well-tailored and as non-controversial as possible as to not offend a sensitive audience, which reminds me of how Obama addresses his views on social issues in front of more conservative audiences, where he either evades the topic at hand, whether it be about abortion or marriage equality, or presents his opinion in a simple and placid way. When discussing climate change, Obama employs a similar attitude, which I personally find maddening, especially since the article mentions that "the public... finally see for themselves... the reality of climate change" and that even if Obama took a more powerful stance on the issue, it would doubtfully make a big impact on his supporters, most of whom are already agree with Obama's alleged opinions. Beyond the very toned-down attitude Obama brings, it's also interesting what he chooses to note when mentioning climate change. Instead of honing in on details, he talks about events of the past few years that vaguely reference major problems and then focuses in on the aspects that could appeal to a broad range of voters, like when he talks about the "threat[s] to our children's future." This also serves to combat Romney's rather ridiculous claim that by focusing on the climate, it is impossible to also care about the American people themselves.
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    I think that Obama has been smart to stay mostly silent on climate change. Yes, it's a big issue, but had he made it a major cause of his campaign he would have been even more vulnerable to depiction by Romney as a head-in-the-clouds kind of guy. During an economic crisis, the voters want the president to be focusing on immediate steps for the good of the American middle class - more jobs, lower taxes, cheaper healthcare. Climate change can and obviously does evoke strong emotion in certain voting blocs, but for the majority of middle-class Americans who are still reeling from the recession, they want their president to be focused on their immediate recovery. I think Obama only brought it up here as a direct response to Romney's challenge - to not address it would make him seem weak in his stance. I also think it's worth noting that in this brief mention, he ties it to the immediate future, to help ward off that daydreamer image that Romney evoked.
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    I recently heard an interview with Michael Lewis who wrote an article for Vanity Fair that involved spending a lot of day to day time with Obama. One of the things he talked about was Obama's view of his ability to use his position as president as a "bully pulpit." Obama told Lewis that his experience had been that he, in particular, was such a lightning rod for negative response, that when he took a position conservative journalists and politicians automatically responded so negatively that it was more useful for him to operate more subtly. I would imagine that he was using his speech at the convention to let voters know that he still wants to do something about climate change, and takes it seriously. Hopefully, he will be in a position to do this when he is not thinking about re-election.
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    I think the way Obama has treated climate change as an economic issue is very compelling. One of the main issues that people have with renewable energy is that isn't currently economically sustainable. I think Obama can work on the issue of climate change with the economy in mind and that is what he is doing. The issue that Obama faces on bringing the climate change issue into the economic realm is the Solyndra investment that the government made under his administration. Obama needs to walk the fine line between championing climate change and doing what's best for the economy.
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