Group items tagged

locked into the cities and towns

they f

had to compete

Palestinians

Iraqis

Syria was already a refuge

March 15, 2011

small group gathered in the southwestern town of Daraa to protest against government failure to help them

government saw them as subversives.

He ordered a crackdown

And the army,

responded violently.

Riots broke out

attempted to quell them with military

what had begun as a food and water issue gradually turned into a political and religious cause.

interpretation of Islam

the Syrian government is charged with using illegal chemical weapons

All observers agree that the foreign-controlled and foreign-constituted insurgent groups are the most coherent, organized, and effective

astonishing as they share no common language and come from a wide variety of cultures

slam has at least so far failed to provide an effective unifying force

all the rebels regard the conflict in Syria as fundamentally a religious issue

pwards of $150 billion

a whole generation of Syrians have been subjected to either or both the loss of their homes and their trust in fellow human beings.

How the victims and the perpetrators can be returned to a “normal life”

First, the war might continue.

Second, if the Syrian government continues or even prevails, there is no assurance that,

t will be able to suppress the insurgency.

Third,

Syria will remain effectively “balkanized”

control

whether the opposition moves to purge regime employees

offices are trashed and looted

violent power struggle

unitary state with a strong central government is unlikely to emerge from the civil war.

great challenges exerting control over local leaders who fought the regime

ederation of warlords (probably former military and security chiefs) ruling over fiefdoms

unitary entity

Syrian army

opposition will have more time to set up rudimentary institutions

provide humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees

likely be accompanied by a new round of massacres and ethnic cleansing

Sunni extremist groups.

new opportunities for external actors, especially Iran and Hizballah, both of which would seek allies among the former regime's Alawite security elite

Iran's

remain a major player in the Levant

hostile to Iran and more closely aligned with Turkey, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia.

revolutionary Sunni government in Syria

Iran and Hizballah

support to former regime

Washington should continue with preparations to contain spillover from the conflict

enabling it to collect tariffs on imports

Washington will need to know as much as it can about the key players,

while ISIS focuses on fighting a nearby enemy to defend the Islamic State, al-Qaida focuses on fighting an external enemy, i.e. the United States.,

e group still relies heavily on "older" platforms, like websites and forums, according to Weimann.

ecause al-Qaida is more focused on fighting Western influence, it is much more concerned with currying favor with the wider Muslim community.

al-Qaida's online magazine, Inspire,

ISIS, all attention is good attention

ISIS's propaganda documentary Flames of War is produced in a Hollywood-esque fashion, complete with pyrotechnics and voice

appeal to a younger audience

ISIS glorifies violence

al-Qaida leader Anwar al-Awlaki, which numbered over a thousand at one point before Google took them down. Al-Awlaki preaching directly into the camera for close to an hour is in stark contrast to ISIS's sophisticated and sensational production.

Weimann predicts al-Qaida will outlast ISIS. I

l-Qaida's network is much wider and more deeply rooted than that of ISIS.

Libya looked like the latest fragile blossoming of the Arab spring

Army commanders, mostly of Arab Bedouin origin, refused orders to shoot the protesters

the revolutionaries cobbled together a National Transitional Council (NTC) claiming to represent all of Libya

Volunteers from students to bank managers took up arms, joining popular militias and only sometimes obeying the orders of defecting army commanders trying to take control

In August Western bombing of government bases surrounding Tripoli cleared an avenue for the revolutionaries to take the capital.

Recognised abroad, popular at home and enjoying the benefits of healthy oil revenues—97% of the government’s income—the NTC was well placed to lay the foundations for a new Libya

he judges, academics and lawyers who filled its ranks worried about their own legitimacy and feared confrontation with the militias which, in toppling Qaddafi, had taken his arsenals for their own.

militia leaders were already ensconced in the capital’s prime properties

The NTC presided over Libya’s first democratic elections in July 2012, and the smooth subsequent handover of power to the General National Congress (GNC) revived popular support for the revolution.

Islamist parties won only 19 of 80 seats assigned to parties in the new legislature, and the process left the militias on the outside

The Homeland party, founded by Abdel Hakim Belhad

tried to advertise its moderation by putting an unveiled woman at the head of its party list in Benghazi

The incumbent prime minister, Abdurrahim al-Keib, a university professor who had spent decades in exile, fretted and dithered

He bowed to militia demands for their leaders to be appointed to senior ministries, and failed to revive public-works programmes

which might have given militiamen jobs

Many received handouts without being required to hand in weapons or disband, an incentive which served to swell their ranks

the number of revolutionaries registered with the Warriors Affairs Commission set up by the NTC was about 60,000; a year later there were over 200,000. Of some 500 registered militias, almost half came from one city, Misrata.

In May 2013 the militias forced parliament to pass a law barring from office anyone who had held a senior position in Qaddafi’s regime after laying siege to government ministries.

In the spring of 2014, Khalifa Haftar, a retired general who had earlier returned from two decades of exile in America, forcibly tried to dissolve the GNC and re-establish himself as the armed forces’ commander-in-chief in an operation he called Dignity

The elections which followed were a far cry from the happy experience of 2012. In some parts of the country it was too dangerous to go out and vote

Such retrenchment has been particularly noticeable among women. In 2011 they created a flurry of new civil associations; now many are back indoors.

Turnout in the June 2014 elections was 18%, down from 60% in 2012, and the Islamists fared even worse than before

Dismissing the results, an alliance of Islamist, Misratan and Berber militias called Libya Dawn launched a six-week assault on Tripoli. The newly elected parliament decamped to Tobruk, some 1,300km east

Grasping for a figleaf of legitimacy, Libya Dawn reconstituted the pre-election GNC and appointed a new government

So today Libya is split between two parliaments—both boycotted by their own oppositions and inquorate—two governments, and two central-bank governors.

The army—which has two chiefs of staff—is largely split along ethnic lines, with Arab soldiers in Arab tribes rallying around Dignity and the far fewer Misratan and Berber ones around Libya Dawn.

Libya Dawn controls the bulk of the territory and probably has more fighters at its disposal.

General Haftar’s Dignity, which has based its government in Beida, has air power and, probably, better weaponry

the Dignity movement proclaims itself America’s natural ally in the war on terror and the scourge of jihadist Islam

Libya Dawn’s commanders present themselves as standard-bearers of the revolution against Qaddafi now continuing the struggle against his former officers

Ministers in the east vow to liberate Tripoli from its “occupation” by Islamists, all of whom they denounce as terrorists

threatens to take the war to Egypt if Mr Sisi continues to arm the east. Sleeping cells could strike, he warns, drawn from the 2m tribesmen of Libyan origin in Egypt.

Yusuf Dawar

The struggle over the Gulf of Sirte area, which holds Libya’s main oil terminals and most of its oil reserves, threatens to devastate the country’s primary asset

And in the Sahara, where the largest oilfields are, both sides have enlisted ethnic minorities as proxies

ibya Dawn has drafted in the brown-skinned Tuareg, southern cousins of the Berbers; Dignity has recruited the black-skinned Toubou. As a result a fresh brawl is brewing in the Saharan oasis of Ubari, which sits at the gates of the al-Sharara oilfield, largest of them all.

Oil production has fallen and become much more volatile

oil is worth half as much as it was a year ago

The Central Bank is now spending at three times the rate that it is taking in oil money

The bank is committed to neutrality, but is based in Tripoli

Tripoli may have a little more access to cash, but is in bad shape in other ways

Fuel supplies and electricity are petering out

Crime is rising; carjacking street gangs post their ransom demands on Twitter

In Fashloum

residents briefly erected barricades to keep out a brigade of Islamists, the Nuwassi

“No to Islamists and the al-Qaeda gang” reads the roadside graffiti

Libya’s ungoverned spaces are growing,

Each month 10,000 migrants set sail for Europe

On January 3rd, IS claimed to have extended its reach to Libya’s Sahara too, killing a dozen soldiers at a checkpoint

The conflict is as likely to spread as to burn itself out.

the Western powers

have since been conspicuous by their absence. Chastened by failure in Afghanistan and Iraq, they have watched from the sidelines

Obama washed his hands of Libya after Islamists killed his ambassador

Italy, the former colonial power, is the last country to have a functioning embassy in Tripoli.

Even under Qaddafi the country did not feel so cut off

Dignity is supported not just by Mr Sisi but also by the United Arab Emirates, which has sent its own fighter jets into the fray as well as providing arms

The UAE’s Gulf rival, Qatar, and Turkey have backed the Islamists and Misratans in the west

If oil revenues were to be put into an escrow account, overseas assets frozen and the arms embargo honoured he thinks it might be possible to deprive fighters of the finance that keeps them fighting and force them to the table

Until 1963 Libya was governed as three federal provinces—Cyrenaica in the east, Fezzan in the south and Tripolitania in the west

The old divisions still matter

the marginalised Cyrenaicans harked back to the time when their king split his time between the courts of Tobruk and Beida and when Arabs from the Bedouin tribes of the Green Mountains ran his army

Tensions between those tribes and Islamist militias ran high from the start.

July 2011 jihadists keen to settle scores with officers who had crushed their revolt in the late 1990s killed the NTC’s commander-in-chief, Abdel Fattah Younis, who came from a powerful Arab tribe in the Green Mountains. In June 2013 the Transitional Council of Barqa (the Arab name for Cyrenaica), a body primarily comprised of Arab tribes, declared the east a separate federal region, and soon after allied tribal militias around the Gulf of Sirte took control of the oilfields.

In the west, indigenous Berbers, who make up about a tenth of the population, formed a council of their own and called on larger Berber communities in the Maghreb and Europe for support

Port cities started to claim self-government and set up their own border controls.

Derna—a small port in the east famed for having sent more jihadists per person to fight in Iraq than anywhere else in the world

opposed NATO intervention and insisted that the NTC was a pagan (wadani) not national (watani) council

Some in Derna have now declared their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.

In December the head of America’s Africa command told reporters that IS was training some 200 fighters in the town.

there is hope

intellectual women today stand in solidarity

woman's marital status is mutually exclusive from her value and right to lead a healthy, fulfilling life of her own.

suffering economy

women

society

spinsterhood

marriage in Egypt really means.

trapped

declining marriage rate in Egypt,

“transforming her into a commodity for the highest bidder.”

family to be the pillar of one's success

pros and cons,

codependence is highly favorable in the Middle Eas

typical Egyptian female's life, is to pursue an auspicious college degree

regarded as a supporter or sidekick,

“...an archaic notion that defines a woman's value by her husband's status”

improve her chances of finding a proper suitor

lifelong purpose of securing a husband.

he standard sequence of events for a typical Egyptian female's life, is to pursue an auspicious college degree (to improve her chances of finding a proper suitor, and assist her future children with their studies), possibly add to her assets by acquiring a mediocre job for a year or two (under the pretext of killing time and elevating her practical wisdom), and eventually fulfill her lifelong purpose of securing a

ones who suffer are those who can't find a “star.”

pressure from three distinctive sources

their rights and full potential, desperately seeking approval before they reach their “expiration date.

“Stepford wife model”,

incompatible matc

transforming her identity, s

driven towards more extreme measures.

parents employing psychological abuse

subject to such scrutiny

generation of women

oblivious t

conforming comes naturally to a lot of women,

On one hand

(parents-peers-society

quoting religious commandments promoting marriage,

coerce their daughters

into submission

threat of eternal damnation

(should she fail to perform this role and still wishes to enjoy her life then she will have indeed committed sacrilege and is a covertly regarded as a disgrace regardless of any other achievement)

peer-pressure;

still under the impression that exceptions do not exist .

25-40

“business marriages”

Egyptians have a problem with evolution

persecute anomalies

educated middle class that crowns the highest rate of unmarried wome

women can hardly take care of themselves and that is the norm.

Humanitarian aid will not be affected, the government official said. Syrians with passports are still allowed to cross into Syria

Turkey has kept its borders open to refugees since the start of Syria's civil war four years ago, but it has come under criticism for doing too little to keep foreign fighters crossing and joining militant groups including Islamic State

divided between government forces and insurgent groups fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad in a conflict estimated to have killed 200,000 people

The closure of the Turkish border posts also comes after an air strike on Sunday