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wmulnea

BBC News - Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers? - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...business-29643612

shared by wmulnea on 13 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • The reasons for this change are twofold - weak demand in many countries due to insipid economic growth, coupled with surging US production. Added to this is the fact that the oil cartel Opec is determined not to cut production as a way to prop up prices.
  • Russia loses about $2bn in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price,
  • Russia has confirmed it will not cut production to shore up oil prices.
  • ...12 more annotations...
  • Venezuela is one of the world's largest oil exporters, but thanks to economic mismanagement it was already finding it difficult to pay its way even before the oil price started falling.
  • Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and Opec's most influential member, could support global oil prices by cutting back its own production, but there is little sign it wants to do this.
  • There could be two reasons - to try to instil some discipline among fellow Opec oil producers, and perhaps to put the US's burgeoning shale oil and gas industry under pressure.
  • Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to be around $85 in the longer term, it has deep pockets with a reserve fund of some $700bn - so can withstand lower prices for some time.
  • were to force some higher cost producers
  • In the 1980s the country did cut production significantly in a bid to boost prices, but it had little effect and it also badly affected the Saudi economy.
  • Saudi Arabia, Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have also amassed considerable foreign currency reserves, which means that they could run deficits for several years if necessary.
  • Islamic State, capturing oil wells. It is estimated it is making about $3m a day through black market sales - and undercutting market prices by selling at a significant discount - around $30-60 a barrel.
  • "The growth of oil production in North America, particularly in the US, has been staggering," says Columbia University's Jason Bordoff.
  • It has been this growth in US energy production, where gas and oil is extracted from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing or fracking, that has been one of the main drivers of lower oil prices.
  • "Shale has essentially severed the linkage between geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and oil price and equities," says Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citi.
  • With Europe's flagging economies characterised by low inflation and weak growth, any benefits of lower prices would be welcomed by beleaguered governments. A 10% fall in oil prices should lead to a 0.1% increase in economic output, say some. In general consumers benefit through lower energy prices, but eventually low oil prices do erode the conditions that brought them about.
wmulnea

Oil and Terror: ISIS and Middle East Economies - 0 views

www.investopedia.com/...-and-middle-east-economies.asp

shared by wmulnea on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • ISIS's economic cost is significant not just for Iraq but also other Middle Eastern countries.
  • Iraq has the fifth largest oil reserves in the world and third highest in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • Part of ISIS's rise in Iraq can be attributed to sectarian politics.
  • ...15 more annotations...
  • part of their dissatisfaction came from the distribution of oil revenues. 
  • The mismanagement of oil revenues is also manifest in Iraq's poor infrastructure
  • Though currently the Iraqi government has reserves and surplus funds, mounting expenditures and falling oil prices has economists to project that Iraq will run a deficit next year.
  • it is running a self-sustaining economy, making it the world's richest terror group.
  • Thankfully, 6 of 8 Iraq’s major oil fields lie in the Shia South, which is unlikely to come under ISIS control.
  • It sells crude at a steep discount, at a rate of USD $30 per barrel
  • Turkey runs a huge trade surplus with Iraq, which is likely to slow down dramatically due to lower demand from Iraq.
  • Jordan and Lebanon, which have both absorbed a large number of refugees.
  • Iran’s position seems to be the trickiest of all in that its interests align with those of the US in its fight against ISIS
  • Falling oil prices have definitely curtailed Iran’s ability to intervene without serious consequences for its economy. Iran needs oil prices well above USD $100 for it to balance its budget,
  • Any cooperation between Iran and the US over ISIS could lead to a gradual withdrawal of sanctions, which would allow Iran to sell its oil on the open market and generate revenue. The flip side is that Iran’s oil would surely depress oil prices further.
  • Saudi's allegiances have become muddled.
  • it finds its interests are aligned with those of Iran, a traditional foe, both of which are against ISIS.
  • Russia needs oil prices near USD $100 to balance its budget and Iran needs high oil prices to support its nuclear program.
  • Regionally, ISIS will disrupt and degrade the economy of several states, and that in turn may lead to further political chaos -- which is precisely ISIS's goal.
wmulnea

Saudis block OPEC output cut, sending oil price plunging | Reuters - 0 views

uk.reuters.com/...-meeting-idUKKCN0JB0M420141127

shared by wmulnea on 05 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • This outcome set the stage for a battle for market share between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, as a boom in U.S. shale oil production and weaker economic growth in China and Europe have already sent crude prices down by about a third since June.
  • Saudi Arabia blocked calls on Thursday from poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for production cuts to arrest a slide in global prices, sending benchmark crude plunging to a fresh four-year low.
  • "It is a new world for OPEC because they simply cannot manage the market anymore. It is now the market’s turn to dictate prices and they will certainly go lower," said Dr. Gary Ross
  • ...6 more annotations...
  • and Algeria had calling for output cuts of as much as 2 million bpd.
  • The wealthy Gulf states have made clear they are ready to ride out the weak prices that have hurt the likes of Venezuela and Iran
  • hoped that lower prices would help drive some of the higher-cost U.S. shale oil production out of the market.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accounts for a third of global oil output.
  • A price war might make some future U.S. shale oil projects uncompetitive due to high production costs, easing competitive pressures on OPEC in the longer term.
  • "We interpret this as Saudi Arabia selling the idea that oil prices in the short term need to go lower, with a floor set at $60 per barrel, in order to have more stability in years ahead at $80 plus," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy.
  • wmulnea on 05 Feb 15
     
    This article suggests that OPEC is losing control of global oil prices. The article addresses budget considerations for smaller OPEC producers, like Venezuela, and the battle over market share between OPEC and gulf producers.
wmulnea

New Attacks on Libya's Oil Fields Shake Nation's Stability, Energy Markets - WSJ - 0 views

www.wsj.com/...lity-energy-markets-1425840239

shared by wmulnea on 09 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • wmulnea on 09 Mar 15
     
    Another article addressing the recent destruction of Libyan oil fields, the Wall Street Journal points a more direct finger at the Islamic State. This article suggests that militant groups do not have the expertise to take advantage of the oil fields themselves,; therefore, they destroy the oil fields in an attempt to keep rival political factions from using the oil fields to their advantage.
aavenda2

Saudi Arabia says won't cut oil output - 0 views

www.reuters.com/...es-saudi-idUSKBN0JZ05W20141221

Saudi Arabia Oil

shared by aavenda2 on 24 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 24 Feb 15
     
    Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi mentions that Saudi Arabia is not going to cut oil production to stabilize oil prices in the market. Instead they will keep the same target output of 30 million barrels per day.
wmulnea

The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale | The Economist - 0 views

www.economist.com/...es-will-go-bust-market-will-be

shared by wmulnea on 23 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • The contest between the shalemen and the sheikhs has tipped the world from a shortage of oil to a surplus.
  • Big importing countries such as the euro area, India, Japan and Turkey are enjoying especially big windfalls. Since this money is likely to be spent rather than stashed in a sovereign-wealth fund, global GDP should rise.
  • There will, of course, be losers (see article). Oil-producing countries whose budgets depend on high prices are in particular trouble. The rouble tumbled this week as Russia’s prospects darkened further. Nigeria has been forced to raise interest rates and devalue the naira. Venezuela looks ever closer to defaulting on its debt
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • But Saudi Arabia, in particular, seems mindful of the experience of the 1970s, when a big leap in the price prompted huge investments in new fields, leading to a decade-long glut.
  • wmulnea on 23 Feb 15
     
    This article suggests that increased shale oil production is changing the economy of oil, but at the same time Saudi Arabia is reluctant to slow OPEC production.
aavenda2

Saudi Arabia was worried about a danger much bigger than shale when it blindsided oil m... - 0 views

business.financialpost.com/...when-it-blindsided-oil-markets

saudi arabia oil markets

shared by aavenda2 on 13 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 13 Apr 15
     
    This article talks about the strategical approaches from Oil leaders including Saudi Arabia to maintain control of their market share, and how they use their oil as a "Weapon" in the sense that their decisions financially affect other countries greatly.
wmulnea

The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo: The Old Rules No Longer Apply : Parallels : NPR - 0 views

www.npr.org/...-the-old-rules-no-longer-apply

shared by wmulnea on 23 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • wmulnea on 23 Feb 15
     
    NPR examines the history of the 1973 oil embargo and the differences in the global oil market forty years later. The article cites Gal Luft and Anne Korin, suggesting that the U.S. policy of reducing dependence on Middle East oil is "faulty."
wmulnea

OPEC and oil prices: Leaky barrels | The Economist - 1 views

www.economist.com/...dermining-cartel-leaky-barrels

shared by wmulnea on 05 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • OPEC, which produces about a third of the world’s daily consumption of 90m barrels of crude oil
  • cartel
  • anti-glut group
  • ...6 more annotations...
  • the country will produce 14m barrels a day (b/d) next year, on a par with Saudi Arabia
  • Iraqi oil exports, stricken by the war and its aftermath, are also set to increase.
  • Libya could be another source of production: its exports have collapsed to only a few hundred thousand barrels a day, against 1.6m in June last year.
  • OPEC’s best hope is continued American protectionism. Any easing of the restrictions on the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or crude will exert more downward pressure on the oil price.
  • But that would cede market share to their hated rivals, Iran and Iraq.
  • America’s domestic production of crude (and gas, which displaces some oil) is rocketing.
  • wmulnea on 05 Feb 15
     
    This article briefly addresses the current global petroleum market, outlining the top national producers and their current import/export strategies. The article is a good overview of the global politcs affecting oil prices.
wmulnea

Energy & Financial Markets - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - U.S. Energy... - 0 views

www.eia.gov/...supply-opec.cfm

shared by wmulnea on 05 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • wmulnea on 05 Feb 15
     
    This U.S. government report examines OPEC's role in setting global oil prices. Specifically, the report documents the effect of OPEC's "spare capacity" on oil prices. The report suggests that OPEC uses its spare capacity to manage oil prices on the global market.
aavenda2

Iran's return to market to delay oil price recovery | Economy | Saudi Gazette - 0 views

www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm

iran return market delay oil saudi

shared by aavenda2 on 13 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 13 Apr 15
     
    Iran's return in the oil market leads to new consequences for current producers, and consumers of oil. Including Saudi Arabia
mjumaia

What now for oil after Saudi king's death? - 0 views

money.cnn.com/...saudi-king-dead-oil

Saudi Arabia Saudi economy oil economy King Abdullah

shared by mjumaia on 25 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • mjumaia on 25 Feb 15
     
    After the king death the oil price went higher 2%, which mean that Saudi Arabia has huge influence in the oil market. All signals indicate Saudi Arabia will stay the course on its oil production and policies. Saudi Arabia will not cut oil production.
aavenda2

The most important thing to understand about the coming oil production cutbacks - 1 views

www.resourceinsights.blogspot.com/...rtant-thing-to-understand.html

Oil Saudi Arabia United States Canada

shared by aavenda2 on 24 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 24 Feb 15
     
    The United States and Canada are cutting back on oil production beginning 2015. The high cost of production in the two countries does now allow it to compete with Saudi Arabia oil and other countries with lower costs as market prices begin to fall
malshamm

Iran set to negotiate on oil market with Saudi Arabia - Al Jazeera English - 0 views

www.aljazeera.com/...di-arabia-160210050125453.html

iran oil saudi arabia

shared by malshamm on 10 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • malshamm on 10 Feb 16
     
    iran plans to sit with saudi arabia to negotiate oil market which hurt iran economic after lowing the price from saudi side.
mjumaia

As Oil Prices Fall, Who Wins And Who Loses? - 0 views

www.npr.org/...es-fall-who-wins-and-who-loses

OPEC Saudi economy oil Oil Prices Fall GCC Iran

shared by mjumaia on 28 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • mjumaia on 28 Apr 15
     
    This is one likely reason the Saudis have been willing to pump oil at high levels even though that's contributing to low prices. The Saudis publicly cite a business motive, saying they want to maintain their current share of the oil market. But the Saudis are also well aware that low prices mean less money for archrival Iran.
aavenda2

Markets fear Saudi-led military action in Yemen will choke oil delivery to Europe and U... - 0 views

www.euronews.com/...en-will-choke-oil-delivery-to-

Saudi Arabia oil yemen

shared by aavenda2 on 30 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 30 Mar 15
     
    This article focuses on the possibilities of action that Yemen could take that would affect oil supply, prices, and production.
aavenda2

Iran's crude oil prices rise 6% - 0 views

customstoday.com.pk/irans-crude-oil-prices-rise-6

oil prices

shared by aavenda2 on 30 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 30 Mar 15
     
    This article provides an inside look at the effects of prices in the oil market as a whole comparing US, Saudi, and other countries
wmulnea

Isis threatens future oil supplies, warns IEA - FT.com - 0 views

www.ft.com/...59-11e4-a1a9-00144feabdc0.html

shared by wmulnea on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • Mr Birol said instability in the Middle East, and especially in Iraq, had “major implications” for oil markets.
  • Iraq has the world’s third-largest reserves of conventional oil
  • the government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, which are usually at loggerheads, this month agreeing a temporary deal for crude exports and revenue sharing
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • Iraq’s oil production has fallen only 10 per cent this year.
  • the rapid ascent of Isis has raised questions about the country’s security, adding to international companies’ concerns about regulatory, environmental and budget problems.
  • Poor roads and transport infrastructure were adding to security concerns and hence costs, he added.
  • Mr Birol said it was highly unlikely that US crude production could meet the expected increase in global demand, even if shale oil production continued to outpace forecasts as it has done in recent years.
amarsha5

How long can Saudi Arabia afford Yemen war? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East - 14 views

www.al-monitor.com/...ia-economic-repercussions.html

saudi yemen war economics

shared by amarsha5 on 07 Apr 16 - No Cached
  • long history of political animosity; this is a history that continues until our present day.
    • joepouttu
      joepouttu on 07 Apr 16
       
      "However, as Saleh continued to kill, these countries had no choice but to issue a forceful declaration to show that they were not in favor of Saleh's relentless, murderous campaign to ignore a civil war in Yemen." pg 128
  • Yemen's treasury was burdened by the costs of unification such as paying for southern civil servants to move to the new capital, Sanaa, and paying interest on its massive debt. On top of its other economic challenges, Yemen was to absorb the shock of 800,000 returnees and their pressure on the already weak job market. With their return, the estimated $350 million a month in remittances
    • joepouttu
      joepouttu on 07 Apr 16
       
      "My father had decided to leave Eritrea and return to Yemen, his homeland, after long years of exile..." pg 110
  • Civil war broke out in the summer of 1994 in what could be interpreted as a symptom of economic failure.
  • ...20 more annotations...
  • By 1995 the Yemeni government implemented a program of macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms with support from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and reduced spending on defense and civil service and cut subsidies. The Yemeni economy started showing signs of recovery and stability.
  • Masood Ahmed, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, wrote in 2012 that “fiscal sustainability will be an issue” for Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In its 2012 regional economic outlook, the IMF recommended to “curtail current expenditures while protecting the poor” as a response to the risk of declining oil prices.
  • Policies to cut spending were unlikely to be introduced in a monarchy like Saudi Arabia, especially after the Arab Spring, where tax-paying citizens along with non-tax-paying Bahrainis and next-door Yemenis went out on the streets to claim their rights in shaping the policies that govern their daily lives. The risk of people demanding more political rights was growing and cutting spending was not the optimal strategy for the kingdom.
    • joepouttu
      joepouttu on 07 Apr 16
       
      "The students of Sanaa were unique, marching straight out onto the street from their classrooms and chanting, 'The people demand the fall of the President and the regime.'" pg 126
  • As the kingdom continued its generous fiscal policy by providing more benefits to its citizens in response to the people’s dissatisfaction with the economic and political situation, it ran a deficit of 3.4% of GDP in 2014 due to a fall in oil revenues.
  • The kingdom's economic reforms of raising gas and diesel prices, cutting fuel subsidies in half and supporting the introduction of a GCC-wide value-added tax might ease the pressure of sustaining a war for nine months and perhaps longer. These structural reforms were long overdue and their introduction at this time is revealing.
    • amarsha5
      amarsha5 on 07 Apr 16
       
      CIG pg. 120 -> "We live in a world with many layers of linkages between countries. Nations will exchange goods and services through trade and will engage in cross-border investments from bank loans to setting up businesses. Each of these linkages can serve as a transmission mechanism in a time of crisis."
  • the political inclusion of the taxpaying citizen. It's a price the kingdom is now willing to pay, as we have seen Saudi women not only
  • and suffered an uprising fueled by anger at economic failure. The Saudi economy is trying to absorb
  • As they introduce revenue-collecting mechanisms, they should also reform mechanisms of capital transfer to the public to minimize the gap between the rich and the poor, as it is known that the poor are the most affected by tighter revenue-collecting policies. Otherwise, the Saudi war on Yemen will mark the beginning of an economic downturn that will surely spill over onto its political system in the long run.
    • joepouttu
      joepouttu on 07 Apr 16
       
      "So the young revolutionaries fight on, until all their demands are met and they are free to build their State: a state founded on social justice and equality between all citizens where Saleh's reign is just a page in the history books." pg 129
    • amarsha5
      amarsha5 on 07 Apr 16
       
      CIG pg. 116 -> "Globalization, in the shape of freer trade and multinational investments, has been generally a force for good and economic prosperity. But it has also advanced, rather than harmed, social agendas"
    • ccfuentez
      ccfuentez on 07 Apr 16
       
      But it became apparent that Saleh was not going to leave me to my own devices. He declared war in mid-1994, occupying the South and defeating the Socialist Party. Everything was finished, or so I believed. Its property stolen by the regime, the paper shut down, and once more I found myself broken, defeated and without hope. Worse, I was a known employee of the Socialist Party through my work at the paper. In the region where I lived agents for the regime had been hunting down and detaining anyone who had belonged to the Socialist Party or getting them fired from their jobs. Although I had not been a party member myself, just worked at a party newspaper, the regime made no distinction. My mother intervened, however, and hid me. She wouldn't let me out of the house. My mother always protects me.   (2013-12-31). Diaries of an Unfinished Revolution: Voices from Tunis to Damascus (p. 115). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. 
    • atownen
      atownen on 07 Apr 16
       
      Civil War: in 1994 Jamal currently in high school, describes the times as a world, when the color of his skin would define him. The Civil War, "interpreted as a symptom of economic failure", was evident in the reading when Jamal described the lack of jobs as a college graduate, members of the socialist party were completely shut out when Saleh took the presidency, depriving hard workers the ability to integrate into the economy. 
    • ccfuentez
      ccfuentez on 07 Apr 16
       
      CIG Ch. 4 -> in relation to international rulemaking on fiscal policy -> is international intervention needed to contain and reverse financial crises in countries, esp. when it comes to the human rights and economic equality of citizens
    • mcooka
      mcooka on 07 Apr 16
       
      Relating to page 120 Sanaa could not find work after college. While his degree wasn't very fluid, he was unable to find work for about 5 years. He got into journalism which blacklisted him against the government. Now he is unemployed again. 
    • mcooka
      mcooka on 07 Apr 16
       
      This paragraph, while not highlighted, is important to the idea of globalization and why the war is not stopping. There is a flow of revenue from these oil prices that Yemen is reliant on, but they are also competing with countries that produce higher amounts of oil. This would have happened during the time Sanaa was in College writing scathing articles
    • mcooka
      mcooka on 07 Apr 16
       
       On page 113 around this time the author was working as a journalist for the newspaper. 
    • mcooka
      mcooka on 07 Apr 16
       
      Related to page 129 Sanaa is still living in hiding and in poverty. The animosity keeps him in fear. 
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      Market liberalization outlook
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      When Saleh came to power he and the leader of the southern part of Yemen, Salem al-Beid, agreed to coesxist as leaders of Yemen.  WIthin weeks of this in play, Saleh began to try to make the south his and this created the civil war.  
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      Jamal notes that the standard of living in Yemen was decreasing gradually the longer Saleh stayed in power.  
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      People, including Jamal, were writing about the Saleh regime and how they were upset with them.  
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      When Saleh's son was coming into power, Jamal saw that Yemen was moving towards a monarchy, realizing that his and the country's future was in the hands of an unqualified person.  
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