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wmulnea

BBC News - Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers? - 0 views

  • The reasons for this change are twofold - weak demand in many countries due to insipid economic growth, coupled with surging US production. Added to this is the fact that the oil cartel Opec is determined not to cut production as a way to prop up prices.
  • Russia loses about $2bn in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price,
  • Russia has confirmed it will not cut production to shore up oil prices.
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  • Venezuela is one of the world's largest oil exporters, but thanks to economic mismanagement it was already finding it difficult to pay its way even before the oil price started falling.
  • Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and Opec's most influential member, could support global oil prices by cutting back its own production, but there is little sign it wants to do this.
  • There could be two reasons - to try to instil some discipline among fellow Opec oil producers, and perhaps to put the US's burgeoning shale oil and gas industry under pressure.
  • Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to be around $85 in the longer term, it has deep pockets with a reserve fund of some $700bn - so can withstand lower prices for some time.
  • were to force some higher cost producers
  • In the 1980s the country did cut production significantly in a bid to boost prices, but it had little effect and it also badly affected the Saudi economy.
  • Saudi Arabia, Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have also amassed considerable foreign currency reserves, which means that they could run deficits for several years if necessary.
  • Islamic State, capturing oil wells. It is estimated it is making about $3m a day through black market sales - and undercutting market prices by selling at a significant discount - around $30-60 a barrel.
  • "The growth of oil production in North America, particularly in the US, has been staggering," says Columbia University's Jason Bordoff.
  • It has been this growth in US energy production, where gas and oil is extracted from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing or fracking, that has been one of the main drivers of lower oil prices.
  • "Shale has essentially severed the linkage between geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and oil price and equities," says Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citi.
  • With Europe's flagging economies characterised by low inflation and weak growth, any benefits of lower prices would be welcomed by beleaguered governments. A 10% fall in oil prices should lead to a 0.1% increase in economic output, say some. In general consumers benefit through lower energy prices, but eventually low oil prices do erode the conditions that brought them about.
wmulnea

Oil and Terror: ISIS and Middle East Economies - 0 views

  • ISIS's economic cost is significant not just for Iraq but also other Middle Eastern countries.
  • Iraq has the fifth largest oil reserves in the world and third highest in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • Part of ISIS's rise in Iraq can be attributed to sectarian politics.
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  • part of their dissatisfaction came from the distribution of oil revenues. 
  • The mismanagement of oil revenues is also manifest in Iraq's poor infrastructure
  • Though currently the Iraqi government has reserves and surplus funds, mounting expenditures and falling oil prices has economists to project that Iraq will run a deficit next year.
  • it is running a self-sustaining economy, making it the world's richest terror group.
  • Thankfully, 6 of 8 Iraq’s major oil fields lie in the Shia South, which is unlikely to come under ISIS control.
  • It sells crude at a steep discount, at a rate of USD $30 per barrel
  • Turkey runs a huge trade surplus with Iraq, which is likely to slow down dramatically due to lower demand from Iraq.
  • Jordan and Lebanon, which have both absorbed a large number of refugees.
  • Iran’s position seems to be the trickiest of all in that its interests align with those of the US in its fight against ISIS
  • Falling oil prices have definitely curtailed Iran’s ability to intervene without serious consequences for its economy. Iran needs oil prices well above USD $100 for it to balance its budget,
  • Any cooperation between Iran and the US over ISIS could lead to a gradual withdrawal of sanctions, which would allow Iran to sell its oil on the open market and generate revenue. The flip side is that Iran’s oil would surely depress oil prices further.
  • Saudi's allegiances have become muddled.
  • it finds its interests are aligned with those of Iran, a traditional foe, both of which are against ISIS.
  • Russia needs oil prices near USD $100 to balance its budget and Iran needs high oil prices to support its nuclear program.
  • Regionally, ISIS will disrupt and degrade the economy of several states, and that in turn may lead to further political chaos -- which is precisely ISIS's goal.
wmulnea

Saudis block OPEC output cut, sending oil price plunging | Reuters - 0 views

  • This outcome set the stage for a battle for market share between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, as a boom in U.S. shale oil production and weaker economic growth in China and Europe have already sent crude prices down by about a third since June.
  • Saudi Arabia blocked calls on Thursday from poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for production cuts to arrest a slide in global prices, sending benchmark crude plunging to a fresh four-year low.
  • "It is a new world for OPEC because they simply cannot manage the market anymore. It is now the market’s turn to dictate prices and they will certainly go lower," said Dr. Gary Ross
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  • and Algeria had calling for output cuts of as much as 2 million bpd.
  • The wealthy Gulf states have made clear they are ready to ride out the weak prices that have hurt the likes of Venezuela and Iran
  • hoped that lower prices would help drive some of the higher-cost U.S. shale oil production out of the market.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accounts for a third of global oil output.
  • A price war might make some future U.S. shale oil projects uncompetitive due to high production costs, easing competitive pressures on OPEC in the longer term.
  • "We interpret this as Saudi Arabia selling the idea that oil prices in the short term need to go lower, with a floor set at $60 per barrel, in order to have more stability in years ahead at $80 plus," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy.
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    This article suggests that OPEC is losing control of global oil prices. The article addresses budget considerations for smaller OPEC producers, like Venezuela, and the battle over market share between OPEC and gulf producers.
aavenda2

Oil prices edge up in Asian trade extending earlier gains - 0 views

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    More speculation about oil prices and contracts with Asia as oil productions continue to increase with little proof of future demand in oil
wmulnea

The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale | The Economist - 0 views

  • The contest between the shalemen and the sheikhs has tipped the world from a shortage of oil to a surplus.
  • Big importing countries such as the euro area, India, Japan and Turkey are enjoying especially big windfalls. Since this money is likely to be spent rather than stashed in a sovereign-wealth fund, global GDP should rise.
  • There will, of course, be losers (see article). Oil-producing countries whose budgets depend on high prices are in particular trouble. The rouble tumbled this week as Russia’s prospects darkened further. Nigeria has been forced to raise interest rates and devalue the naira. Venezuela looks ever closer to defaulting on its debt
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  • But Saudi Arabia, in particular, seems mindful of the experience of the 1970s, when a big leap in the price prompted huge investments in new fields, leading to a decade-long glut.
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    This article suggests that increased shale oil production is changing the economy of oil, but at the same time Saudi Arabia is reluctant to slow OPEC production.
aavenda2

Saudi Arabia says won't cut oil output - 0 views

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    Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi mentions that Saudi Arabia is not going to cut oil production to stabilize oil prices in the market. Instead they will keep the same target output of 30 million barrels per day.
amarsha5

Iran To Countries Capping Oil Output: Good For You! But Not For Us : The Two-Way : NPR - 0 views

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    Oil producing countries in the Middle East are in talks with Iran for a joint effort to cap oil output in an attempt to raise up oil prices from the lowest level in 12 years. So far Iran has decided that it will now participate.
aavenda2

​Saudi Arabia confident oil prices will rise, won't cut output - 1 views

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    Saudi Arabia Minister blames the recent decline in oil prices on speculators and lack of cooperation between oil leaders. They are refusing to cut down on their oil production and state "the best thing for everybody is to let the most efficient produce."
wmulnea

OPEC and oil prices: Leaky barrels | The Economist - 1 views

  • OPEC, which produces about a third of the world’s daily consumption of 90m barrels of crude oil
  • cartel
  • anti-glut group
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  • the country will produce 14m barrels a day (b/d) next year, on a par with Saudi Arabia
  • Iraqi oil exports, stricken by the war and its aftermath, are also set to increase.
  • Libya could be another source of production: its exports have collapsed to only a few hundred thousand barrels a day, against 1.6m in June last year.
  • OPEC’s best hope is continued American protectionism. Any easing of the restrictions on the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or crude will exert more downward pressure on the oil price.
  • But that would cede market share to their hated rivals, Iran and Iraq.
  • America’s domestic production of crude (and gas, which displaces some oil) is rocketing.
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    This article briefly addresses the current global petroleum market, outlining the top national producers and their current import/export strategies. The article is a good overview of the global politcs affecting oil prices.
wmulnea

Energy & Financial Markets - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - U.S. Energy... - 0 views

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    This U.S. government report examines OPEC's role in setting global oil prices. Specifically, the report documents the effect of OPEC's "spare capacity" on oil prices. The report suggests that OPEC uses its spare capacity to manage oil prices on the global market.
aavenda2

Saudi Arabia's Muhanna Sees Oil Recovering From 'Temporary' Drop - 0 views

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    An article of Saudi oil leaders projecting their optimistic views on the future of the oil economy. + a very interesting quote "Saudi Arabia sets its crude prices based on refining margins and not politics, al-Muhanna said."
aavenda2

Why a vicious Saudi price war against North American oil producers is doomed to fail | ... - 0 views

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    This article describes the war of oil production between North American Countries and Saudi Arabia. Mentioning different production tactics by these countries & their effect on the future of oil
ralqass

Saudi oil minister to face rival U.S. producers as price rout bites| Reuters - 0 views

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    This week, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi will for the first time face the victims of his decision to keep oil pumps flowing despite a global glut: U.S. shale oil producers struggling to survive the worst price crash in years.
mjumaia

As Oil Prices Fall, Who Wins And Who Loses? - 0 views

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    This is one likely reason the Saudis have been willing to pump oil at high levels even though that's contributing to low prices. The Saudis publicly cite a business motive, saying they want to maintain their current share of the oil market. But the Saudis are also well aware that low prices mean less money for archrival Iran.
wmulnea

Exxon Chief Expects Oil Prices to Stay Low for 2 Years - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    Rex T. Tillerson, chief of Exxon Mobil predicts that due to slow global economic growth and higher than normal oil production, oil prices will remain low for the next two years.
mjumaia

What now for oil after Saudi king's death? - 0 views

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    After the king death the oil price went higher 2%, which mean that Saudi Arabia has huge influence in the oil market. All signals indicate Saudi Arabia will stay the course on its oil production and policies. Saudi Arabia will not cut oil production.
aavenda2

Weaker oil prices take a toll in US as companies witness share prices, profits, jobs de... - 0 views

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    The lack of cooperation by Saudi to lower oil production output is hurting other countires.
aavenda2

Iran's crude oil prices rise 6% - 0 views

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    This article provides an inside look at the effects of prices in the oil market as a whole comparing US, Saudi, and other countries
aavenda2

The most important thing to understand about the coming oil production cutbacks - 1 views

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    The United States and Canada are cutting back on oil production beginning 2015. The high cost of production in the two countries does now allow it to compete with Saudi Arabia oil and other countries with lower costs as market prices begin to fall
ralqass

Saudi Arabia, Russia to Freeze Oil Output Near Record Levels - 0 views

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    a deal between Saudi Arabia and other countries to freeze their oil production in order to stabilize the oil price.
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