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October 30, Wednesday, China's money market rates pointed on to a four-month high, a day following the country's central bank instill funds into the market to relieve worries that it was preparing to considerably constrict credit situation. The seven-day report rate, observed as a key measure of confidence to lend in the interbank markets, rose to around 5.59 percent - up about 64 basis points from the prior day. Analysts said that the jump in rates was seasonal in nature and at this stage were not too concerned about a repeat of events in June when a surge in money market rates fueled fears of a credit crunch in the world's number two economy. They further mentioned that liquidity infused into the market this week had not been huge enough to shove overnight lending rates considerably lower. On Tuesday via an open market operation, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) infused 13 billion yuan ($2.13 billion) into money markets. "Liquidity remains tight and the repo operation yesterday was small," said Nizam Idris, managing director, head of strategy, fixed income and currencies atMacquarie Bank. "China is still in the process of fine-tuning rates." Chris Weston, chief market strategist at trading firm IG, added: "Month end is coming up and of course tax implications are being blamed for higher rates." No fear With the benchmark Shanghai Composite stock index up 0.75 percent in afternoon Asia trade, Chinese markets became visible to take the spike in money market rates in stride. Analysts put this down to assumptions that the PBOC would approach into the market with better injections of cash to alleviate any doubts that it was geting ready to constrict monetary conditions in a big way. On Tuesday and Thursday, the PBOC usually carry out reverse-repurchase operations, an opportunity for it to inject liquidity into Chinese money markets. "They [PBOC policymakers] will probably provide liquidity on Thursday - at this point they don't wa

"It will be very painful and even feel like cutting one's wrist." So predicted Li Keqiang, China's premier, as he discussed the task ahead of him during his first press conference last March. Not the most inviting prospect for investors looking to make a play on China. But they should certainly take heed of these words. Li is the man who, together with president Xi Jinping, must lead a reform programme regarded by analysts as the most fundamental in decades. It will affect almost every part of an economy worth $9.4tn (Britain's annual output, for comparison, is $2.4tn). So what are these reforms? And why does China's new leader think that their implementation will be so painful? There are three key areas which investors should note.

The World Bank's most recent Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report, released this week, says a global economic recovery is underway, underpinned by strengthening output and demand in high-income countries. Global GDP growth in 2014 will be 2.8 percent and it is expected to rise to about 4.2 percent by 2016, according to the report, which the World Bank publishes twice a year. Average GDP growth in developing countries has reached 4.8 percent in 2014, faster than in high-income countries but slower than in the boom period before the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. Demand side stimulus or supply side reforms? The global economic slowdown that struck in 2008 was caused by a financial crisis that resulted in large part from the bursting of an enormous, fraud-ridden mortgage lending bubble in the US. The crisis led to varying responses in different countries. The GEP report's authors said that in general, developing countries privileged demand stimulus policies over structural reforms during the past several years. For example, in 2008 to 2009, China implemented a four trillion-renminbi ($586 billion) stimulus program as a direct response to the slowdown in global trade caused by the global financial crisis. Critics pointed to over-investment in China as a risk to continued fast growth. The country is now struggling to contain a real estate bubble of its own. The World Bank wants China and other emerging countries to refocus on structural reforms. "A gradual tightening of fiscal policy and structural reforms are desirable to restore fiscal space depleted by the 2008 financial crisis," the bank's chief economist, Kaushik Basu, has said. "In brief, now is the time to prepare for the next crisis."

The think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the UK economy will outstrip France and Germany within two decades even if Britain stays in the EU. But while leaving the organisation would have initial negative consequences, the CEBR's chief executive Douglas McWilliams suspects "that over a 15-year period, it would probably be positive." Britain is set to vote on a referendum on EU membership in 2017. The report predicts the UK's GDP will first move to fifth place ahead of France by 2018 before leapfrogging Germany around 2030. However, despite being forecast to be the second most successful of the Western economies after the US, it will fall behind the accelerating economies of India and Brazil. "Germany is forecast to lose its position as the largest Western European economy to the UK around 2030 because of the UK's faster population growth and lesser dependence on the other European economies," the report said. But added: "If the euro were to break up, Germany's outlook would be much better. "A Deutsche Mark-based Germany certainly would not be overtaken by the UK for many years if ever." It added that a factor driving the UK's move ahead of Germany is the assumption of a falling value for the euro, Germany's falling population and the UK's rising population. The gap between the two countries will fall from almost £610billion in 2013 to just £183billion in five years. The UK's GDP will grow from more than £1.59trillion in 2013 to £2.6trillion in 2028, compared to China which is predicted to be in top position with a GDP of more than £20.5trillion, ahead of the US with an estimated £19.7trillion Japan will fall from its steady position in the global league of third to fourth by 2028, overtaken by India and followed by Brazil, Germany and the UK. The positive report on the economy comes as a poll reveals more people believe they would be helped rather than harmed by a rise in interest rates. A survey reveals that a pre-

By Maria Gallucci - Global economic growth is expected to dip this year, following the fiercely cold winter that plagued the United States and turbulence in Ukraine and the world's financial markets. The World Bank on Tuesday said it reduced its global growth forecast to 2.8 percent this year, down from a January projection of 3.2 percent, Bloomberg News reported. The U.S. forecast was cut to 2.1 percent from 2.8 percent, and outlooks for Brazil, Russia, India and China also fell -- a sign that emerging economies aren't moving fast enough or investing sufficiently in domestic structural reforms, which are needed to accelerate economic expansion, according to the Washington-based institution. It recommended smaller budget deficits, higher interest rates and productivity-boosting measures to stave off future financial unrest, Bloomberg said. The growth setbacks, however, might be short-lived. The 2015 projection for global economic growth held steady at 3.4 percent, Bloomberg noted, and growth is expected to regain speed this year despite earlier weaknesses, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report. "The financial health of economies has improved. ... But we are not totally out of the woods yet," Kaushik Basu, the lender's chief economist, said. "A gradual tightening of fiscal policy and structural reforms are desirable to restore fiscal space depleted by the 2008 financial crisis. In brief, now is the time to prepare for the next crisis."

Large banks and trading firms are frantically trying to determine whether they have fallen victim to a suspected commodities fraud emanating from the giant Qingdao Port in northeast China. Citigroup and several other large Western banks are concerned that their loans may lack the appropriate collateral, big stockpiles of copper and aluminum at the port. The banks have inspectors on the ground who are trying to assess whether enough of the metals are there. The worry stems from suspicions that a Chinese companies pledged the same collateral for multiple loans. Chinese authorities are investigating the matter. The case could have broad repercussions for the commodities market and the Chinese economy. Banks have funneled billions of dollars into the Chinese economy through these murky transactions, and commodities prices have been falling over concerns that such lending will dry up. Western banks, including Citigroup, are bracing for any potential fallout. Just months ago, Citigroup fell victim to a multimillion-dollar fraud in Mexico. If the Qingdao developments harm the bank, regulators and shareholders are likely to press it to explain why its controls had failed again. Chinese companies are at risk, too.