NPR commissioned a bipartisan poll of the 70 House districts viewed as most unfriendly to incumbents. 60 of those seats are currently held by Democrats, and the news just gets worse from there.
In the 70 swing districts, Republicans hold an eight-point advantage over Democrats on a generic ballot.
Poll directors Stan Greenberg (Democrat) and Glen Bolger (Republican) put the data in context:
"In a year where voters want change and in which Democrats are seen to be in power, this is a tough poll — about as tough as you get," Greenberg said.
Bolger said the poll results will be a wake-up call for Democrats, who were stunned at the beginning of the year when Republican Scott Brown won the U.S. Senate seat held for years by the late Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts.
"If Massachusetts was the first wake-up call, this is was the snooze alarm going off," Bolger said.