Geopolitics Weekly

some analysts have been wondering whether the Obama administration will seek to distance itself from the government in Tbilisi in an effort to score points with Moscow and differentiate itself from its predecessor. Indeed, a clear U.S. focus on "resetting" relations with Russia, as Vice President Biden said in early February in Munich, raises questions for Georgia. Will Washington sacrifice closer relations with Tbilisi in order to warm up to Moscow? This would be a mistake.

Georgia already paid a price when NATO allies, meeting last April in Bucharest, failed to offer Tbilisi (and Kiev) a Membership Action Plan; that decision was likely interpreted in Moscow as a green light to engage in more reckless behavior within the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and toward Tbilisi.

Yes, the United States does need to think carefully before launching a serious effort to rearm Georgia. The obvious yet painful reality is that Georgia simply is no match militarily for Russia, and we should not pretend otherwise. Giving less military support might also reinforce the U.S. message that the military option for resolving the South Ossetia and Abkhazia problems is out of the question.

China's economy is showing some signs of recovery from the global financial crisis, the country's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has said.

China has already implemented a 4tn yuan ($585bn;£399bn) stimulus package to boost economic activity. Mr Wen also said he would spend more if necessary to boost the economy.

Despite its problems, China's economy - the third biggest in the world - is forecast to grow by at least 5% this year, in stark contrast to many major global economies that are shrinking.

The Constitutional Court in Moldova has ordered a recount of the country's parliamentary election results, after days of anti-government protests.

The initial count after last Sunday's election was won by Moldova's ruling Communists, with almost 50% of votes. But opposition groups have dismissed calls for a recount, saying it is an attempt to mask election fraud.

Despite the opposition claims, observers from the European security body, the OSCE, concluded that the vote had been generally fair. However, unrest during the week prompted President Vladimir Voronin to ask for a recount.

The Thai army has fought running battles with protesters in the capital Bangkok in a bid to end days of mass demonstrations and political chaos. A BBC correspondent saw soldiers fire hundreds of live rounds, some into the crowds of protesters, in a bid to clear them from a major road junction.

The protesters reacted by hurling petrol bombs and driving buses they had commandeered at the lines of troops.

Many soldiers shot above the protesters' heads, but some were clearly firing into the crowd, our correspondent said.

US navy snipers have shot dead three pirates holding a US captain in a boat off Somalia, in a dramatic rescue authorised by President Barack Obama.

Capt Richard Phillips, hailed as a hero for his actions during the hijacking of his vessel last week, was unharmed and has been resting aboard a US warship

Capt Philips was seized by the pirates last Wednesday after his ship the Maersk Alabama was hijacked by Somali pirates in the Indian Ocean.

Stanislav Belkovsky, the Russian political analyst and insider, gave sensational interviews in November 2007 to Die Welt and The Guardian, stating that Putin was worth approximately $40 billion. He said Putin was the beneficial owner of 37 percent of Surgutneftegaz ($18 billion), 4.5 percent of Gazprom ($13 billion), and half of a Swiss-based oil-trading company Gunvor ($10 billion)

Stanislav Belkovsky, the Russian political analyst and insider, gave sensational interviews in November 2007 to Die Welt and The Guardian, stating that Putin was worth approximately $40 billion. He said Putin was the beneficial owner of 37 percent of Surgutneftegaz ($18 billion), 4.5 percent of Gazprom ($13 billion), and half of a Swiss-based oil-trading company Gunvor ($10 billion).* If true, this fortune would make Putin one of the richest people in Europe and probably the world. It would also make him one of the most corrupt.

The legislation prohibits conflicts of interest, requires government workers to report income and property, and mandates them to report on coworker noncompliance. It is tailor-made for a behind-the-scenes assault on Putin's power and legitimacy.

"I try to defend our interests so that we can find a balance in our relations both with the EU and Russia," Tymoshenko explains, meaning she wants her country to get into the EU without giving the impression of antagonizing Russia.

Could the same strategy apply to Ukraine's relations with NATO? Here the prime minister sighs for a split second: "There, it's more complex." It's not so much that she is frightened by Georgia's experience, something she never mentions though it's clearly on her mind. While recognizing it would be "uncomfortable" for Ukraine to remain "in a void, outside all existing security systems," she still sees several "political barriers" between Kiev and NATO.

The first problem she sees is that barely 25 percent of Ukrainians favor joining NATO. "Even the president accepts we need to hold a referendum on this," she acknowledges.

This is a tough day for her and an important time for Ukraine. Later she will speak before parliament to defend controversial new budget measures demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in exchange for unblocking a badly needed financial rescue package. The amount at stake is relatively small, a $1.8 billion second installment of a $16.4 billion loan. But without the IMF, there is little hope Ukraine will regain enough market confidence to roll over the $40 billion in bank loans and bonds coming due this year. By mid-April, Tymoshenko needs to push pension reform and higher gas tariffs through the legislature - hardly a comfortable position for a leading candidate in the presidential elections expected on Oct. 25.

It is especially ironic that this businesswoman turned anti-Russian revolutionary is now disparaged by Yushchenko as a thinly disguised Russian pawn.

Not that dealing with Russia has gotten any easier. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin did not like Tymoshenko's recent deal with the European Union on the modernization of Ukraine's gas infrastructure, and Moscow is holding up a $5 billion loan to Ukraine to mark its dissatisfaction.

Iranian politicians and diplomats have enormous sensitivity to any sense of losing, or losing face, in any encounter with Westerners -- and especially Americans. In the vicious world of domestic Iranian politics, walking away from a good deal that makes you look weak is far preferable to accepting it.

The United States must learn how to work with Iranians to frame solutions to differences in a way palatable to these sensitivities, even as these solutions address U.S. needs. "Track two" diplomacy, talks in unofficial channels, could help foster a conceptual and political framework for "track one" discussions between the governments themselves.

Despite the ongoing infighting that marks Iranian politics, a key point for Westerners to bear in mind is that all factions in "mainstream" Iranian politics support the idea that Iran should have the fuel cycle and a nuclear "option."

The Iranian political scene is an extraordinarily diffuse beast. There are many power centers and many players, all perpetually locked in intense competition. Western analysts often refer to "reformists," "traditional conservatives," "technoconservatives," "radicals," and others. But, in all my time in Iran I have never heard these terminologies used by Iranians themselves. A continuum, akin to the leftist-Democrat-centrist-Republican-rightist one in the United States, is not appropriate. For, in reality, the Iranian political scene is highly fluid, with coalitions continuously forming and reforming. Iranians' understanding of their political universe simply does not accord with Westerners' understanding.

Western analysts must also recognize that the president is far from the most important figure in Iranian politics, whatever Ahmadinejad's rhetoric may suggest. Even the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is not all-powerful.

Rather, he acts to preserve the delicate political balance, while subtly pushing his own agenda. The supreme leader can be difficult for outsiders to reach. Former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati runs a foreign-policy machine for the supreme leader, and that might be one avenue of approach. The most direct is simply for Obama to write directly to Khamenei -- from one "supreme leader" to another.

The last eight years have been brutal on the U.S.-Turkey relationship. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 exposed a deep rift between the two countries, with Ankara opposing the war and Turkey's parliament refusing to pass a motion that would have allowed U.S. troops to use the country as a launching pad for attacking the Saddam regime. Things have been even more dismal on the public opinion front. In a 2007 Pew Research Center public opinion survey, only 9 percent of Turks surveyed held favorable views of the United States, meaning that Turkey was the country with the least favorable view of the United States among the 47 countries and territories surveyed. (If it's any consolation for the United States, other surveys found that Turks seem to be a grumpy lot, holding generally unfavorable views of many other countries.)

America's fall from grace was reflected in Turkish popular culture. A 2005 Turkish bestseller, Metal Firtina (Metal Storm), envisioned Turks and Americans engaging in all-out war, the story ending with a nuclear device detonating in Washington. Kurtlar Vadisi -- Irak (Valley of the Wolves -- Iraq), a crassly anti-American and anti-Semitic 2006 film that became one of Turkey's best-grossing movies ever, saw a team of Turkish agents battling evil Americans in northern Iraq and a devious doctor (played by Gary Busey) who runs an organ-harvesting operation that relies on Iraqi corpses.

Yet Turkish public opinion might now be turning a corner. Obama's election and visit seemed to bring out a healthy dose of goodwill and excitement in Turkey.

Thai authorities have declared a state of emergency across Bangkok and the surrounding areas. The announcement came after Thai PM Abhisit Vejjajiva vowed to prosecute protesters who forced the cancellation of an Asian summit on Saturday.

The tactics of the pro-Thaksin activists mirror those of their royalist rivals last year: they too paralysed government activity by targeting key venues. The BBC's Jonathan Head in Bangkok says there is no question the pro-Thaksin protesters broke the law. But, our correspondent adds, the problem is that Mr Abhisit rode to power on the back of protests that were just as illegal, and the PM may look hypocritical if he only goes after the red-shirted protesters who embarrassed him.

Pre-summit street protests in the capital this week drew up to 100,000 people.

The Argentinian government is demanding a halt to construction of a controversial social "separation wall" intended to block off a well-heeled residential neighbourhood from a poor district on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, in an episode that is turning into a national scandal.

The mayor of wealthy San Isidro, Gustavo Posse, had originally agreed to raise the wall as a crime prevention measure, arguing that it would prevent thieves crossing the highway and entering San Isidro.

The erection of the Buenos Aires wall has followed similar moves in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where projects have been undertaken to seal off large areas of slums, triggering protests.

Trapped inside a tiny coastal strip no larger than 20 sq km, the last fighters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are almost out of time. Since the start of the year, the Sri Lankan military has stepped up its campaign. Outgunned, they have fallen back to an area designated a "no-fire zone", where civilians were told to gather to escape the fighting. In the past week, more than 500 rebel fighters were reported killed.

Alongside the LTTE fighters are tens of thousands of civilians, unwilling or unable to leave. The Sri Lankan government says they are being used as human shields, and independent humanitarian workers say there is no doubt that many who tried to escape have been shot by the Tigers. One UN worker described how a five-year-old boy was shot in the head as he tried to flee

The military says that, even when surrounded, many Tigers refused to surrender. Asked to explain how more than 500 Tigers had been killed in the most recent fighting, against an official military death toll of just 11, Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara, the military spokesman, said the rebels had been cut off and were unable to get fresh supplies: "They were pretty much out of ammunition, but they were determined to fight to the end. It was hand-to-hand fighting."

Thousands of people marched through Georgia's capital Saturday on the third day of peaceful protests demanding the resignation of President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Despite a steady decline in the number of demonstrators each day, their leaders vowed to resume the daily protests with new vigor after a break for Palm Sunday, which Georgians and other Orthodox Christians celebrate Sunday.

Saakashvili, whose second term runs through 2013, has countered the protests by calling for talks with his opponents.

Monday's Twitter-organized student protest brought some 10,000 people to Chisinau's main square, who accused the government of rigging Sunday's vote. The protest turned violent on Tuesday, with some demonstrators throwing rocks and storming the Moldovan parliament.

Moldova's current president, Vladimir Voronin, has belittled the protests and accused neighboring Romania of organizing a coup. He even expelled Romania's ambassador on Wednesday. "When the flag of Romania was raised on state buildings, the attempts of the opposition to carry out a coup became clear," he said. "We will not allow this."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lined up behind Voronin on Thursday and described the protesters who ransacked the parliament as "pogrom-makers" bent on destroying the country.

Officials said the Security Council's five permanent members and Japan had agreed on the text of a presidential statement on the 5 April launch.

The statement is considered a weaker response than the resolution initially sought by Japan and the US. China and Russia had rejected that idea, calling on the international community to act with restraint.

The leader of Lebanon's Islamist Hezbollah movement has confirmed one of the group's members is among 49 men accused of planning attacks in Egypt.

Egypt announced on Wednesday that it was holding the group on suspicion of planning "hostile operations".

Hezbollah had told the men to collect intelligence from villages along the Egypt-Gaza border, tourist sites and the Suez Canal, prosecutors said. The group had received equipment from Hezbollah, and had also been tasked with spreading Shia ideology in the predominantly Sunni country, they said

Is that what former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder said to you when you met with him here in Tehran in February? Ahmadinejad: Yes, he said it, as well.

We now hope to see concrete steps. This is good for everyone, but it is especially beneficial to the United States because the American position in the world is not exactly a good one. No one places any trust in the words of the Americans.

During my more than three years in office, I have visited more than 60 countries, where I was received with great affection by both the people on the street and those in the government. We have the support of 118 countries in the Non-Aligned Movement