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Contents contributed and discussions participated by Pedro Gonçalves

Pedro Gonçalves

France24 - Centre-right Fidesz party claims landslide victory - 0 views

  • The centre-right Fidesz party claimed victory after securing 206 of 386 parliamentary seats in the first round of Hungary's general election. Partial results show the far-right Jobbik party making strong gains with 16.71 percent of the vote.
  • The right-wing opposition Fidesz won a landslide victory after the first round of Hungary's general elections on Sunday, based on 99 percent of votes counted. Fidesz won 52.77 percent of the vote, far ahead of its main rivals, as opinion polls had predicted. However, it stopped short of winning a two-thirds majority in the 386-seat parliament, which would have allowed it to make constitutional changes.
Pedro Gonçalves

Israel's peace dividend | Seth Freedman | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • The TA-25 has now more than doubled since November 2008, when the global credit crisis was at its height. While the rebound on the Israeli exchange is in line with a general trend of recovery on bourses around the world, what sets Israel apart from its peers is the minimal effect the credit crunch had on the state's economy.
  • The still-booming hi-tech and pharmaceutical sectors also helped the Israeli economy ride out the storm, contributing to the reaching of the latest financial milestone being predicted by economists: a per capita GDP of $30,000, up from $20,000 less than a decade earlier.
  • pressure is now mounting on Netanyahu in his current incarnation as prime minister, with calls emanating from a variety of quarters urging him to strike a peace deal with the Palestinians for the sake of Israel's economy as much as Israeli society as a whole.Fischer believes the country could see growth of almost 7% per year if the conflict with the Palestinians was resolved, which – set against current levels of around 3% – provides a massive financial incentive to sign a final-status agreement. But far more pressing are the consequences of not reaching a lasting accord with the Palestinians in terms of the Iranian problem.
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  • In the absence of an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, Israel will have far less leverage to persuade the world to halt Iran's drive towards developing nuclear weapons, and the spectre of an Iranian attack on Israeli soil would see investors flee Israel in droves. On top of such an outflow of foreign money, Israel would need to spend a fortune on defence and to bolster its own nuclear weapons arsenal, which would deal a crippling blow to the state's finances.
  • Israelis already know the benefits to be gleaned when all is quiet on the Palestinian front: the current state of relative calm in major Israeli cities has been a substantial boon to local economies which are heavily reliant on tourist expenditure. The further into the past that the second intifada recedes, the more tourists flock to Israel, injecting vast amounts of money into the country as well as a heavy dose of confidence into owners of Israeli businesses.Should the tranquillity be shattered by another outbreak of violence from Palestinian militants or their Hezbollah peers, the ramifications on the Israeli economy will be swift and sharp. As such, even those for whom the idea of granting statehood to the Palestinians is political anathema should realise the practical benefits of making concessions that will pull the rug from under the radicals' feet.
  • If the TA-25 and the wider economy are to drive on to even greater heights, Netanyahu needs to think with his finance-minister hat on rather than his prime-ministerial one.
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Obama's ambitious nuclear security summit - 0 views

  • Fresh from his success in signing a new strategic arms reduction treaty with the Russians in Prague, US President Barack Obama is hosting a nuclear security summit in Washington DC.With some 47 countries in attendance it will be one of the largest gatherings of its kind in the US capital since the late 1940s. This will be the third element in a nuclear season that began with this month's unveiling of the Obama administration's nuclear strategy, the Nuclear Posture Review. This identified nuclear proliferation - the spread of nuclear weapons and the danger that they might fall into the hands of terrorist groups - as now the key nuclear threat to America's security. That was step one. Step two was the meeting between Mr Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, in Prague that got the strategic arms reduction process back on track. Step three will be this week's Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. All three events are aimed at strengthening Mr Obama's hand as he heads into step four: the review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) scheduled for next month in New York.
  • The threat here is not only from governments with a desire to own nuclear bombs or nuclear-tipped missiles. A far more pressing concern comes from the potential nuclear ambitions of non-state actors or terrorist groups. Their goal may be to obtain a small nuclear device but equally they may just want to get hold of radioactive material to build a so-called "dirty bomb". This uses conventional explosives to spread radioactive material over a wide-area.
  • So the goal of this summit is to batten down the hatches on nuclear materials - especially the fissile materials that might be used in bomb-making, plutonium and highly-enriched uranium - but also the more widespread sources of radioactive substances that could be used for a "dirty bomb". President Obama's goal is to obtain agreement upon a plan to secure all such vulnerable nuclear material within four years. Much will depend upon the detail.
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  • The presence of Israel, India and Pakistan at this summit is fascinating. All three are believed to have nuclear weapons and none of them have signed the NPT. Israel's arsenal clearly has wider ramifications in the Middle East. India and Pakistan's nuclear rivalry is seen by experts as a serious concern given the huge conventional military imbalance between them. And Pakistan is also a major worry in terms of the security of its nuclear installations and materials. Having all three on board is an attempt by the Obama administration to extend the circle of nuclear security in new directions.
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Kuwait 'deports supporters of Mohamed ElBaradei' - 0 views

  • Kuwait has deported at least 21 followers of Egypt's high-profile opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei, human rights groups say.
Pedro Gonçalves

Kyrgyzstan's head reveals overthrown president left only $80m in the budget | World new... - 0 views

  • The head of Kyrgyzstan's new interim government yesterday revealed that her country was broke and said that the former president who was overthrown in a street-led revolution this week had left only $80m in the budget.
  • Otunbayeva said that the ousted president Kurmanbek Bakiyev had plundered the economy, installing his sons in key government positions and flogging off strategic state industries for a fraction of their true value.
  • She said the country's leading telecoms firm had been sold to an offshore company in the Canary Islands, belonging to a friend of the president's son Maxim. "We had an absolutely scandalous situation where Kyrgyzstan had become a family-run regime,"
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Iran unveils 'faster' uranium centrifuges - 0 views

  • Iran's president has unveiled new "third-generation" centrifuges that its nuclear chief says can enrich uranium much faster than current technology.The centrifuges would have separation power six times that of the first generation, Ali Akbar Salehi said in a speech marking National Nuclear Day.
  • The new technology could shorten the time it takes to build a nuclear bomb.
  • In a BBC interview, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei, said Western nations were seeking harsher sanctions "out of frustration". "I don't think Iran is developing, or we have new information that Iran is developing, a nuclear weapon today," he said. "There is a concern about Iran's future intentions, but even if you talk to MI6 or the CIA, they will tell you they are still four or five years away from a weapon. So, we have time to engage." He said it was a "question of building trust between Iran and the US". "That will not happen until the two sides sit around the negotiating table and address their grievances. Sooner or later that will happen."
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  • The new models are more advanced than the P1 centrifuge - adapted from a 1970s design, reportedly acquired by Iran on the black market in the 1980s, and prone to breakdowns - in use at the Natanz enrichment facility, in the central province of Isfahan. BBC Tehran correspondent Jon Leyne, who is in London, says nuclear experts point out that the key question is how many of the third-generation centrifuges Iran can produce.
  • There have already been technical problems with the existing models, so whether it can quickly put the new one into mass production and operation remains to be seen, our correspondent says.
  • Most of Iran's uranium is enriched to a level of 3.5%, but it requires 20% enriched uranium for its Tehran research reactor, which produces medical isotopes. A bomb would require uranium enriched to at least 90%.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a report in February that Iran had achieved enrichment levels of up to 19.8%, which added to its concerns about the "possible military dimensions" of its nuclear programme.
  • Experts say the technical leap required to get to 90% enrichment from 20% is relatively straightforward, because it becomes easier at higher levels. Going from the natural state of 0.7% enrichment to 20% takes 90% of the total energy required, they add.
  • The IAEA report said 8,610 centrifuges had been installed in known enrichment facilities in Iran, of which 3,772 were operating.
  • Iran says it will eventually install more than 50,000 centrifuges at Natanz, and build 10 more enrichment facilities at protected sites.
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Polish President Lech Kaczynski dies in plane crash - 0 views

  • Polish President Lech Kaczynski and scores of others have been killed in a plane crash in Russia.Polish and Russian officials said no-one had survived after the plane apparently hit trees as it approached Smolensk's airport in thick fog. Poland's army chief, central bank governor, MPs and leading historians were among more than 80 passengers. They were flying in from Warsaw to mark 70 years since the Katyn massacre of thousands of Poles by Soviet forces.
Pedro Gonçalves

Israel's nuclear standoff | Meir Javedanfar | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • As Dr Avner Cohen, the author of the forthcoming book, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel's Bargain with the Bomb, stated in a recent TV interview with Russia Today: "The issue of nuclear terrorism is close to Netanyahu's heart, and he should have come to the summit."
  • By refusing to attend, Israel will be missing a vital opportunity to stand shoulder to shoulder with other countries in addressing, and cooperating, over this very important issue. This impacts on Israel's security directly as Israel needs the co-operation of other countries – for example, politically or in intelligence-gathering.
  • As the issue of settlements is undoubtedly one of the main reasons behind Netanyahu's refusal to attend the summit, what it means is that the settlements policy is becoming an liability with regard to Israel's security concerns.
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  • By refusing to attend, Netanyahu has placed Israel alongside Iran in the category of countries which will be absent from the summit. The only difference is that Iran was not invited, even though it would have dearly loved to attend in order to use the platform to represent its own interests. This is why it is arranging its own conference, scheduled for 17 and 18 April.
  • Israel was invited, but refuses to attend because it doesn't like what two countries are going to mention.
  • This is not the time for Netanyahu to turn his back on them and the international community. The issue of the Iranian nuclear programme is far more important and urgent than the current Israeli government's settlement policies.The expansion of construction in East Jerusalem must stop, in order to enable Israel and the international community to address Ayatollah Khamenei's nuclear ambitions
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Israeli PM Netanyahu pulls out of US nuclear summit - 0 views

  • Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has cancelled a visit to the US where he was to attend a summit on nuclear security, Israeli officials say.Mr Netanyahu made the decision after learning that Egypt and Turkey intended to raise the issue of Israel's presumed nuclear arsenal, the officials said.
  • Israel's Intelligence and Atomic Energy Minister Dan Meridor will take Netanyahu's place in the nuclear summit, Israeli radio said.
  • According to Israeli officials, Turkey and Egypt are planning to call on Israel to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). "These states intend to exploit the occasion in order to slam Israel," said a senior Israeli source.
Pedro Gonçalves

Obama's Nuclear Plans Face Daunting Obstacles - Council on Foreign Relations - 0 views

  • In the case of the CTBT, he needs the consent of countries like India, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico, and any number of other countries who, historically, have lots of questions and concerns that make ratification less than a sure thing. I would guess it would be a long, long time, even if the United States got these agreements ratified--and in the case of Fissile Material Cutoff treaty, drafted--before they would ever come into force. And some people think never.
  • The Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty is supposed to be negotiated in Geneva at the Comprehensive Disarmament Talks. The Pakistanis are refusing to allow the matter to be brought up. And in the case of the Comprehensive Test Ban, you certainly have countries like Egypt that say, "We will approve but only if Israel joins the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as a non-weapon state."
  • Critics of the CTBT claim that the Russians have a more liberal view as to what the ban prohibits. These critics fear that Russia thinks that you can have low-level nuclear tests and still be compliant with the CTBT. Well, the Congressional Commission report that was produced by former Defense secretaries James R. Schlesinger and William J. Perry said that this in fact was a serious enough concern that the five recognized states that have nuclear weapons--the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China--needed to reach an agreement not only on what was allowed but what was clearly prohibited under the treaty
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  • In the FMCT you have another oddity. It only bans the production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium for military weapons. That means that you could still make those materials if you claimed they were for civil purposes.
  • It [the Fissile Material Treaty] only bans states that are non-weapons states from continuing to make materials. The problem is that if you are Iran and you're a non-weapons state, and you see weapons states being able to continue to make nuclear fuel for civil purposes under loose inspection procedures, you've got to raise your voice and say, "I don't even have weapons, why can't I make enriched uranium for civil purposes like the weapons states under the loose inspection procedures that they are obligated to? Why are you picking on me?"
  • There are three concerns raised by critics, and those are the three concerns that Republicans are going to focus on. The first is that the law currently requires the administration to lay out a ten-year plan with budget estimates about how they intend to keep our nuclear weapons reliable, safe, and up to date. The administration has not yet done this, as I understand it. So the Senate is going to ask for that almost certainly. Second, the numbers permitted are lower than what some people wanted them to be. The critics of this agreement are not happy that the numbers went a little bit lower than were forecast initially.
  • what you see in the press is that the number of warheads should be no more than 1,550, but they should be on delivery systems that when deployed are no more than seven hundred. You can have another hundred that are not operationally deployed. But we're told the counting rules for what constitutes a weapon are a little complex. A bomber, for example, carrying many bombs would only count as one weapon
  • both sides can engage in "limited missile defenses." The words "limited missile defenses" would be consistent with this treaty, and if one goes beyond limited missile defenses, [the other] would have the right to leave. So, first question is, "What is a limited defense program consistent with this treaty?"
Pedro Gonçalves

Israelis must integrate to survive | Aluf Benn | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • If you're interested in Israel's future, all you need to know is one statistic: among Israeli kids in their first year at primary school, about half are Arabs or ultra-Orthodox Jews. And their portion is expanding. Looking forward, a very different Israeli society is emerging, with its Jewish secular core shrinking
  • Israeli Arabs and ultra-Orthodox Jews are exempt from military service, and are under-represented in the workforce. As their relative weight in society keeps growing, Israel risks security and economic implosion, since fewer and fewer soldiers and employees will protect and provide for an expanding population of welfare recipients. The Jewish state's long-term survival depends on reversing the trend of non-participation among its Arab and ultra-Orthodox citizens.
  • special treatment comes with a price. At the personal level, freedom from military service extends your youth, but also bars opportunity. In Israel, the military serves as the basis of networking. Our Oxford and Cambridge are the elite army and air force units. (Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his key political ally, defence minister Ehud Barak, served together in the special forces.) An Arab or ultra-Orthodox seeking a job, even with an academic degree, stays out of the club and often faces prejudice and discrimination in the workplace.
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  • Anti-Orthodox activists seek to curb their adversaries' birthrate through cutting child support incentives. It works: a recent Bank of Israel study found that expanding child-support incentives in the 1990s influenced a higher birthrate among Arab and ultra-Orthodox families. Subsequent cuts when Netanyahu was finance minister have reduced it
  • Coercing the Arabs and ultra-Orthodox into military service and employment is not going to work. It will only increase social tension.
  • Israel can't wait until these humble beginnings develop into a wider social revolution. Saving the country from implosion demands a sea change in perceptions and elimination of inter-"tribal" hatred and prejudice
Pedro Gonçalves

The Obama nuclear doctrine | World news | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • Obama has narrowed the role of nuclear weapons in US defence strategy, but has also left significant loopholes that will disappoint arms control advocates.
  • The biggest change is arguably in the "negative security assurance" contained in the review, a guarantee the US will not use its nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states. The Bush nuclear posture from 2001 (handily summarised here by GlobalSecurity.org) left open the option of using nuclear weapons against biological, chemical or mass conventional attack.
  • But here is the catch in the Obama doctrine. The tricky word is compliance. The US and its allies argue that Iran is not in compliance with its obligations under the NPT treaty, leaving Iran a potential target in the US nuclear operational plan. Depending on Syria's relations with the IAEA, the review could also be read as a warning to Damascus.
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  • There is another caveat - a concession to the nuclear hawks at the Pentagon. The negative security assurance is not irrevocable.Given the catastrophic potential of biological weapons and the rapid pace of bio-technology development, the United States reserves the right to make any adjustment in the assurance that may be warranted by the evolution and proliferation of the biological weapons threat and US capacities to counter that threat.
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Obama to announce new nuclear defence strategy - 0 views

  • rule out a nuclear response to attacks on the US involving biological, chemical or conventional weapons. Nor would the US use nuclear arms on non-nuclear states that comply with the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
  • Mr Obama said he would make exceptions for states deemed in violation of the treaty, naming Iran and North Korea.
  • A White House statement on Monday said the new nuclear policy offered "an alternative to developing new nuclear weapons, which we reject".
Pedro Gonçalves

Massacre in woods that brought war to Moscow's metro | World news | The Guardian - 0 views

  • The misfortune of the four garlic pickers was to have unwittingly strayed into a "counter-insurgency operation" conducted by Russian forces in the densely wooded border between Chechnya and Ingushetia. The soldiers, apparently looking for militant rebels who are waging their own violent campaign against the Russian state, came across the unarmed group, brutally killing them amid the picturesque massif of low hills.Normally this atrocity on a cold day in February would have raised barely a ripple of attention had it not been for the terrible events in Moscow this week. In a video address on Thursday, Chechnya's chief insurgent leader, Doku Umarov, said Monday's suicide attacks on the Russian capital's metro were in revenge for the killings of the garlic pickers near the Ingush village of Arshaty. He claimed federal security service (FSB) commandos had used knives to mutilate their bodies of the dead boys.
  • Forty people died and more than 70 were injured when two suicide attackers from the North Caucasus set off their devices at stations outside the headquarters of the FSB and Park Kultury.
  • human rights groups say it is undeniable that the brutal actions of Russia's security forces have fuelled the insurgency raging across the North Caucasus region of Russia and the ethnic republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya and Kabardino-Balkaria. This largely invisible war has now reached the Kremlin's doorstep.
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  • The nature of the armed conflict in the North Caucasus has also mutated. From 1994 to 1996 Boris Yeltsin fought a war against mainly secular Chechen separatists who wanted – like the newly independent Georgians over the mountains – their own constitution and state. In 1999-2004 president Vladimir Putin fought a second Chechen war. The aim was to crush Chechen separatism.Now, however, the Kremlin is battling another kind of enemy. The new generation of insurgents have an explicitly Islamist goal: to create a radical pan-Caucasian emirate with sharia law, a bit like Afghanistan under the Taliban. In February Umarov vowed to "liberate" not only the North Caucasus and Krasnodar Krai but Astrakhan – on the Caspian Sea -and the Volga region as well.
Pedro Gonçalves

Obama urges China to back Iran nuclear sanctions | World news | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • Barack Obama has urged Beijing to "ratchet up the pressure" on Iran over its nuclear programme after a breakthrough for the US administration in persuading China to agree to talks on fresh sanctions against Tehran.
  • diplomats say that while China's agreement to discuss sanctions is a step towards greater unity over Iran, the US and China remain a considerable distance from reaching agreement.China is the last permanent member of the UN security council to oppose any new measures, although there is disagreement among the other permanent members over the extent of additional sanctions.
  • Western officials claimed a breakthrough on Wednesday when they said China had agreed to start drafting a fourth UN security council resolution for sanctions against Iran. They said that in a conference call diplomats from the permanent five members of the security council and Germany had begun discussing the content of a new resolution for the first time. China had hitherto argued that more sanctions were unnecessary and counterproductive.
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  • Obama has expressed hope that a new resolution can be agreed within weeks, before the end of spring, to maintain pressure on Iran. But European diplomats have warned the talks could take much longer. They suggest June might be a more realistic target.
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Romania defends role in US missile shield - 0 views

  • President Barack Obama won rare praise from Moscow for scrapping that plan, which the Russians suspected was aimed against them. But the thaw did not last long. Last September, Washington announced what it called the Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) to missile defence. This new system would start by stationing missile defence assets in south-east Europe, and slowly spread its web to the centre and finally the north.
  • As part of the PAA, Romania has announced that it will accept up to 24 land-based interceptor missiles. Talks with the US on the details will begin soon. And the Bulgarian government has offered to play host to the radar component which complements the missiles.
  • The introduction of the interceptors and radar clearly represents a shift in the balance of power in south-east Europe, following 2008's Russia-Georgia conflict, and Ukraine's new president's offer to extend Russia's lease on its naval base at Sevastopol in the Crimea. "The Black Sea region... will be a very interesting hub, in terms of the arms race and everything we can can see developing on the eastern border of Nato," says Radu Tudor, a defence analyst in Bucharest.
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  • Romania says there are several differences between the new US plan and the earlier, Czech-Polish version.
  • It will cover a wider area, it will be ready earlier - in 2015 for the south-east European segment - and the SM-3 missiles can incorporate new technology, as it is developed.
  • The Romanian authorities expect little public opposition. All major parties in the Romanian parliament support it, and the plan has already sailed through its first committee hearing in the Senate. Some politicians hope it will also help extract a long-standing thorn in Romanian-US relations - the tough visa regime Romanian visitors to the US still face.
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