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Contents contributed and discussions participated by Argos Media

Argos Media

U.S. Looks at Dropping a Condition for Iran Nuclear Talks, Officials Say - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • he Obama administration and its European allies are preparing proposals that would shift strategy toward Iran by dropping a longstanding American insistence that Tehran rapidly shut down nuclear facilities during the early phases of negotiations over its atomic program, according to officials involved in the discussions.
  • The proposals, exchanged in confidential strategy sessions with European allies, would press Tehran to open up its nuclear program gradually to wide-ranging inspection. But the proposals would also allow Iran to continue enriching uranium for some period during the talks. That would be a sharp break from the approach taken by the Bush administration, which had demanded that Iran halt its enrichment activities, at least briefly to initiate negotiations.
  • The proposals under consideration would go somewhat beyond President Obama’s promise, during the presidential campaign, to open negotiations with Iran “without preconditions.” Officials involved in the discussion said they were being fashioned to draw Iran into nuclear talks that it had so far shunned.
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  • A review of Iran policy that Mr. Obama ordered after taking office is still under way, and aides say it is not clear how long he would be willing to allow Iran to continue its fuel production, and at what pace. But European officials said there was general agreement that Iran would not accept the kind of immediate shutdown of its facilities that the Bush administration had demanded.
  • Administration officials declined to discuss details of their confidential deliberations, but said that any new American policy would ultimately require Iran to cease enrichment, as demanded by several United Nations Security Council resolutions.
  • If the United States and its allies allow Iran to continue enriching uranium for a number of months, or longer, the approach is bound to meet objections, from both conservatives in the United States and from the new Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
  • If Mr. Obama signed off on the new negotiating approach, the United States and its European allies would use new negotiating sessions with Iran to press for interim steps toward suspension of its nuclear activities, starting with allowing international inspectors into sites from which they have been barred for several years.
  • Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency, whose inspectors would be a critical part of the strategy, said in an interview in his office in Vienna last week that the Obama administration had not consulted him on the details of a new strategy. But he was blistering about the approach that the Bush administration had taken. “It was a ridiculous approach,” he insisted. “They thought that if you threatened enough and pounded the table and sent Cheney off to act like Darth Vader the Iranians would just stop,” Dr. ElBaradei said, shaking his head. “If the goal was to make sure that Iran would not have the knowledge and the capability to manufacture nuclear fuel, we had a policy that was a total failure.”
  • Now, he contended, Mr. Obama has little choice but to accept the reality that Iran has “built 5,500 centrifuges,” nearly enough to make two weapons’ worth of uranium each year. “You have to design an approach that is sensitive to Iran’s pride,” said Dr. ElBaradei, who has long argued in favor of allowing Iran to continue with a small, face-saving capacity to enrich nuclear fuel, under strict inspection.
  • By contrast, in warning against a more flexible American approach, a senior Israeli with access to the intelligence on Iran said during a recent visit to Washington that Mr. Obama had only until the fall or the end of the year to “completely end” the production of uranium in Iran. The official made it clear that after that point, Israel might revive its efforts to take out the Natanz plant by force.
  • A year ago, Israeli officials secretly came to the Bush administration seeking the bunker-destroying bombs, refueling capability and overflight rights over Iraq that it would need to execute such an attack. President George W. Bush deflected the proposal. An Obama administration official said “they have not been back with that request,” but added that “we don’t think their threats are just huffing and puffing.”
  • Israeli officials and some American intelligence officials say they suspect that Iran has other hidden facilities that could be used to enrich uranium, a suspicion explored in a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. But while that classified estimate referred to 10 or 15 suspect sites, officials say no solid evidence has emerged of hidden activity.
  • Matthew Bunn, a nuclear expert at the Belfer Center at Harvard University, said in a interview on Monday that the Obama administration had some latitude in defining what constitutes “suspension” of nuclear work.One possibility, he said, was “what you call warm shutdown,” in which the centrifuges keep spinning, but not producing new enriched uranium, akin to leaving a car running, but in park. That would allow both sides to claim victory: the Iranians could claim they had resisted American efforts to shut down the program, while the Americans and Europeans could declare that they had halted the stockpiling of material that could be used to produce weapons.
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BBC NEWS | Middle East | Journalist goes on trial in Iran - 0 views

  • An Iranian-American journalist accused of spying in Iran went on trial this week and a verdict is expected soon, an Iranian official has said.
  • Ms Saberi, 31, is being held in Evin prison near Tehran. The journalist, 31, worked briefly for the BBC three years ago. She has also worked for the American public radio network NPR and the TV network Fox News. She has been in custody in Tehran since late January.
  • Ms Saberi originally faced the less serious accusations of buying alcohol, then working as a journalist without a valid press card, but last week Iranian prosecutors accused her of spying for the US.
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  • The Justice Ministry said she is being tried in a closed hearing of Iran's revolutionary court, which handles national security cases.
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BBC NEWS | Americas | Obama eases curbs on Cuba travel - 0 views

  • US President Barack Obama has approved measures that will allow Cuban Americans to travel more freely to Cuba, his spokesman has said. Cuban-Americans will also be allowed to send more money to relatives in Cuba.
  • "The president has directed the secretaries of state, treasury and commerce to carry out the actions necessary to lift all restrictions on the ability of individuals to visit family members in Cuba and to send them remittances," said Mr Gibbs.
  • Restrictions would also be lifted on US telecommunications companies applying for licences to operate in Cuba, Mr Gibbs added.
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  • That move could open the way for a greater flow of information to the island via the internet, says the BBC's Kevin Connolly in Washington, although much will depend on the attitude of the Cuban government itself.
  • The US president has indicated he would be open to dialogue with Cuba's leaders. But he has said that, like previous American presidents, he will only consider a full lifting of the US embargo once Cuba's communist government makes significant moves such as the holding of democratic elections.
  • Cuba's President Raul Castro has said he is prepared to negotiate with the new US administration, providing there are no preconditions.
  • President Obama clearly believes that engagement may yet achieve what the half-century embargo never did, says our correspondent: real political change in Cuba. But there is no talk for the moment of opening diplomatic relations or of lifting the general trade embargo, he adds.
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BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Angry N Korea quits nuclear talks - 0 views

  • North Korea has vowed to walk out on international talks to end its nuclear programme, and said it would restore its disabled nuclear reactor.
  • Pyongyang described the UN statement as an "unbearable insult".
  • The North said it would never again take part in the talks, adding that it would restore its partially disabled Yongbyon nuclear reactor - the fuel source for its 2006 atomic test.
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  • The government-controlled North Korean news agency said the action was in response to a UN statement condemning the recent rocket launch and agreeing to tighten existing sanctions.
  • China, Pyongyang's closest ally, called for "calm and restraint" from all sides, while Russia and Japan urged North Korea to return to the negotiating table.
  • The move comes hours after the 15-member Security Council unanimously condemned the long-range rocket launch on 5 April.
  • The council also ordered the UN Sanctions Committee to begin enforcing both financial sanctions and an existing arms embargo imposed after the 2006 tests.
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North Korea to boycott nuclear weapons talks after UN condemns rocket launch | World ne... - 0 views

  • North Korea said today it will boycott international talks on its atomic weapons programme in protest at the UN security council's condemnation of the country's rocket launch.
  • The country also said it would restart nuclear facilities it had begun to dismantle under an international deal.
  • "We have no choice but to further strengthen our nuclear deterrent to cope with additional military threats by hostile forces," the statement said
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  • The statement was the country's first reaction to the security council's unanimous condemnation yesterday of the 5 April launch, which Pyongyang says sent a satellite into space but the US and others say tested long-range missile technology.
  • The statement also said that the North "will never participate in the six-party talks" because other members "publicly denied" the spirit of the negotiations – which it said were respect of mutual equality and sovereignty - in the name of the UN security council.
  • The North said it will not be bound by any agreement signed under the talks and will restore nuclear facilities it has been disabling and will resume operating them.
  • Under a 2007 six-party deal, North Korea agreed to disable its main nuclear complex – a step toward its ultimate dismantlement – in return for 1 million tons of fuel oil and other concessions.
  • North Korea also said it will "actively consider" building a nuclear light-water reactor and reprocess spent fuel rods at a pilot atomic power plant.
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BBC NEWS | Africa | Somali mortars miss US politician - 0 views

  • A US congressman has had a narrow escape on a visit to Mogadishu after Somali insurgents fired mortars towards his plane as it was about to take off. Airport officials told the BBC one mortar had landed near the airport as Donald Payne's plane was due to fly and five others after his plane departed.
  • The al-Qaeda-linked Islamist militant group al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the mortar attack. "We carried out mortar attacks against the enemy of Allah who arrived to spread democracy in Somalia," a spokesman for the group named as Sheikh Husein Ali Fidow was quoted as saying by AFP news agency. "This government is welcoming America, which is our prime enemy and we will never stop attacking them."
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Foreign Policy: The Axis of Upheaval - 0 views

  • Iran, meanwhile, continues to support both Hamas and its Shiite counterpart in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and to pursue an alleged nuclear weapons program that Israelis legitimately see as a threat to their very existence.
  • No one can say for sure what will happen next within Tehran’s complex political system, but it is likely that the radical faction around President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be strengthened by the Israeli onslaught in Gaza. Economically, however, Iran is in a hole that will only deepen as oil prices fall further. Strategically, the country risks disaster by proceeding with its nuclear program, because even a purely Israeli air offensive would be hugely disruptive. All this risk ought to point in the direction of conciliation, even accommodation, with the United States. But with presidential elections in June, Ahmadinejad has little incentive to be moderate.
  • The democratic governments in Kabul and Islamabad are two of the weakest anywhere. Among the biggest risks the world faces this year is that one or both will break down amid escalating violence. Once again, the economic crisis is playing a crucial role. Pakistan’s small but politically powerful middle class has been slammed by the collapse of the country’s stock market. Meanwhile, a rising proportion of the country’s huge population of young men are staring unemployment in the face. It is not a recipe for political stability.
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  • This club is anything but exclusive. Candidate members include Indonesia, Thailand, and Turkey, where there are already signs that the economic crisis is exacerbating domestic political conflicts. And let us not forget the plague of piracy in Somalia, the renewed civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the continuing violence in Sudan’s Darfur region, and the heart of darkness that is Zimbabwe under President Robert Mugabe. The axis of upheaval has many members. And it’s a fairly safe bet that the roster will grow even longer this year.
  • The problem is that, as in the 1930s, most countries are looking inward, grappling with the domestic consequences of the economic crisis and paying little attention to the wider world crisis. This is true even of the United States, which is now so preoccupied with its own economic problems that countering global upheaval looks like an expensive luxury. With the U.S. rate of GDP growth set to contract between 2 and 3 percentage points this year, and with the official unemployment rate likely to approach 10 percent, all attention in Washington will remain focused on a nearly $1 trillion stimulus package. Caution has been thrown to the wind by both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. The projected deficit for 2009 is already soaring above the trillion-dollar mark, more than 8 percent of GDP. Few commentators are asking what all this means for U.S. foreign policy.
  • The answer is obvious: The resources available for policing the world are certain to be reduced for the foreseeable future. That will be especially true if foreign investors start demanding higher yields on the bonds they buy from the United States or simply begin dumping dollars in exchange for other currencies.
  • Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.
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Foreign Policy: The Axis of Upheaval - 0 views

  • The bad news for Bush’s successor, Barack Obama, is that he now faces a much larger and potentially more troubling axis—an axis of upheaval.
  • ultimately I concluded, in The War of the World, that three factors made the location and timing of lethal organized violence more or less predictable in the last century. The first factor was ethnic disintegration: Violence was worst in areas of mounting ethnic tension. The second factor was economic volatility: The greater the magnitude of economic shocks, the more likely conflict was. And the third factor was empires in decline: When structures of imperial rule crumbled, battles for political power were most bloody.
  • When Bush’s speechwriters coined the phrase “axis of evil” (originally “axis of hatred”), they were drawing a parallel with the World War II alliance between Germany, Italy, and Japan, formalized in the Tripartite Pact of September 1940. The axis of upheaval, by contrast, is more reminiscent of the decade before the outbreak of World War II, when the Great Depression unleashed a wave of global political crises.
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  • The bad news for Bush’s successor, Barack Obama, is that he now faces a much larger and potentially more troubling axis—an axis of upheaval. This axis has at least nine members, and quite possibly more. What unites them is not so much their wicked intentions as their instability, which the global financial crisis only makes worse every day. Unfortunately, that same crisis is making it far from easy for the United States to respond to this new “grave and growing danger.”
  • In at least one of the world’s regions—the greater Middle East—two of these three factors have been present for some time: Ethnic conflict has been rife there for decades, and following the difficulties and disappointments in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States already seems likely to begin winding down its quasi-imperial presence in the region. It likely still will.
  • no matter how low interest rates go or how high deficits rise, there will be a substantial increase in unemployment in most economies this year and a painful decline in incomes. Such economic pain nearly always has geopolitical consequences. Indeed, we can already see the first symptoms of the coming upheaval.
  • In the essays that follow, Jeffrey Gettleman describes Somalia’s endless anarchy, Arkady Ostrovsky analyzes Russia’s new brand of aggression, and Sam Quinones explores Mexico’s drug-war-fueled misery. These, however, are just three case studies out of a possible nine or more.
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Foreign Policy: Ending North Korea's Endless Nuclear Drama - 0 views

  • the United States and its allies have had serious disagreements over North Korea. Japan is prepared to obstruct negotiations until Pyongyang comes clean on the handful of Japanese kidnapped by the North some 30 years ago. The Chinese have wanted to moderate and ultimately change North Korea through reform and sizable economic support, but have little to show for it. Many of the cognoscenti see China as the ultimate arbiter compelling North Korean cooperation. That, of course, has not happened. China has its own interest -- keeping North Korea afloat -- and that's not likely to change. The U.S. and Chinese economies are now so enmeshed that U.S. leverage on China is very limited. South Korea's "sunshine policy," which provided large-scale aid in hopes of ultimately seducing North Korea, was despised by the Bush administration. (Ironically, a new South Korean government abandoned the policy just as the United States was softening its approach to the North.)
  • The U.S. administration seems content to resume six-party talks where they left off: completing the "phase two" agreement, exchanging fuel oil for disablement of the North's plutonium facilities, and an agreement on verification, the sticking point precipitating the breakdown of negotiations. Preventing North Korea from producing more fissile material makes sense. From there, the going gets increasingly tough.
  • The weight of evidence suggests that North Korea will be unwilling to give up its nuclear weapons for a long time, if ever. The apparent North Korean interest in trading the dismantling of its plutonium facilities for light water reactors will not likely go down well in Washington. It is not much of a deal.
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  • Nuclear weapons are Kim Jong Il's trump card. They get international attention. If U.S. President Barack Obama wants to make real progress on denuclearization, he must take a more comprehensive approach with North Korea under the umbrella of the six-party talks. In addition to pursuing denuclearization, he should opt for a radical change in relations: a peace treaty for the peninsula, the normalization of all political and economic relations, and a big economic package for the North, including increasing integration into the global economy. Only a major improvement in its overall situation might lead North Korea to consider some change in course and give up its nuclear weapons.
  • There are, of course, difficulties and downsides. Heavy opposition in Washington might not be worth the cost of a highly uncertain, radically different approach. It could also be unacceptable to both South Korea and Japan, which are not eager to offer goodies to Pyongyang that might not be reciprocated. North Korea's opaqueness raises verification problems, which may be impossible to work out. And Kim Jong Il might simply not be interested in such a big-bang deal.
  • But without an approach like this, you can bank on endless, fruitless negotiations. Going down today's six-party route will also require the United States to shore up its deterrence in the area, particularly for Japan, and strengthen the antiproliferation initiative to guard against North Korean nuclear and missile exports. Enlarging the framework of negotiations looks like the only serious way of achieving a negotiated end to North Korea's nuclear weapons programs. Doing so will require lots of patience, intensive alliance management, and internal political risk with no certain result. But it's worth a shot. At a minimum, having such a package out there may be of some help should the Dear Leader depart the scene.
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Foreign Policy: Don't Forget Georgia - 0 views

  • as Vice President Biden said in Munich and as President Obama made clear during his recent trip to Europe, the United States must never recognize South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence.
  • That said, bringing those separatist regions back under Georgian control won't happen any time soon. The hope is that Georgia, through political and economic reform, becomes an attractive place for South Ossetians and Abkhazians to some day want to join. That will take time and patience on the part of the Georgian leadership, not traits often associated with Saakashvili.
  • Finally, the United States has to fix the international impression that its policy is support for "Misha first, Georgia second." It would be a mistake to dump Saakashvili to support any other candidates -- that's for the Georgians themselves to decide. But America should support processes that encourage a level playing field and avoid picking favorites. To that end, the return to Georgia of former U.N. Ambassador Irakli Alasania to join the opposition against Saakashvili has increased the possibility of more effective checks and balances against the government.
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Foreign Policy: Don't Forget Georgia - 0 views

  • some analysts have been wondering whether the Obama administration will seek to distance itself from the government in Tbilisi in an effort to score points with Moscow and differentiate itself from its predecessor. Indeed, a clear U.S. focus on "resetting" relations with Russia, as Vice President Biden said in early February in Munich, raises questions for Georgia. Will Washington sacrifice closer relations with Tbilisi in order to warm up to Moscow? This would be a mistake.
  • Georgia already paid a price when NATO allies, meeting last April in Bucharest, failed to offer Tbilisi (and Kiev) a Membership Action Plan; that decision was likely interpreted in Moscow as a green light to engage in more reckless behavior within the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and toward Tbilisi.
  • Yes, the United States does need to think carefully before launching a serious effort to rearm Georgia. The obvious yet painful reality is that Georgia simply is no match militarily for Russia, and we should not pretend otherwise. Giving less military support might also reinforce the U.S. message that the military option for resolving the South Ossetia and Abkhazia problems is out of the question.
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  • There is no guarantee that backing off support for Georgia, whether on NATO or more broadly, would lead to improved ties with Russia. The days when U.S. relations with the states in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova) are viewed through a Russian prism should be long over.
  • Supporting Georgia's NATO aspirations, however, is a matter of principle. Last April in Bucharest, the alliance declared, "[We] welcome Ukraine's and Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO." Even while aiming to reset relations with Russia, President Obama has pledged to uphold the principle that "countries who seek and aspire to join NATO are able to join NATO." For NATO's own credibility, Russia cannot be granted a de facto veto over other countries' aspirations for membership. Nor should wishful thinking of better relations with Russia get in the way of Georgia's aspirations, which the United States has encouraged.
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BBC NEWS | Business | China seeing 'gradual recovery' - 0 views

  • China's economy is showing some signs of recovery from the global financial crisis, the country's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has said.
  • China has already implemented a 4tn yuan ($585bn;£399bn) stimulus package to boost economic activity. Mr Wen also said he would spend more if necessary to boost the economy.
  • Despite its problems, China's economy - the third biggest in the world - is forecast to grow by at least 5% this year, in stark contrast to many major global economies that are shrinking.
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  • Earlier this month, figures showed that China's manufacturing sector grew in March for the first time in six months. The purchasing managers index from the state-sanctioned China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose to 52.4 from February's figure of 49. Any figure above 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector.
  • Manufacturing accounts for about 40% of China's economy and has been hit hard by falling demand for its goods in recession-hit western economies. In fact, Chinese exports plunged by more than a quarter in February from a year ago. Exports dropped by 25.7% to $64.9bn (£47.3bn) compared with the same month a year earlier.
  • In the final three months of last year, China's economy expanded by 6.8% from a year earlier - below the 8% that officials view as the level needed to keep unemployment in check and avoid social unrest. Overall growth in 2008 stood at 9% - the first time since 2002 that the economy has expanded at a single-digit pace.
  • Mr Wen has announced a target of 8% growth for China's economy in 2009, but many analysts believe the figure will be closer to 5%. In fact, his comments on positive signs of recovery do not chime with the views of some analysts, who believe China will continue to struggle during the global economic slowdown.
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BBC NEWS | Europe | Moldova court orders poll recount - 0 views

  • The Constitutional Court in Moldova has ordered a recount of the country's parliamentary election results, after days of anti-government protests.
  • The initial count after last Sunday's election was won by Moldova's ruling Communists, with almost 50% of votes. But opposition groups have dismissed calls for a recount, saying it is an attempt to mask election fraud.
  • Despite the opposition claims, observers from the European security body, the OSCE, concluded that the vote had been generally fair. However, unrest during the week prompted President Vladimir Voronin to ask for a recount.
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BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Thai army moves to quell protests - 0 views

  • The Thai army has fought running battles with protesters in the capital Bangkok in a bid to end days of mass demonstrations and political chaos. A BBC correspondent saw soldiers fire hundreds of live rounds, some into the crowds of protesters, in a bid to clear them from a major road junction.
  • The protesters reacted by hurling petrol bombs and driving buses they had commandeered at the lines of troops.
  • Many soldiers shot above the protesters' heads, but some were clearly firing into the crowd, our correspondent said.
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  • Monday is the start of a three-day holiday for the Thai New Year and many people have already left the capital for the provinces.
  • Last year, the government imposed a state of emergency on several occasions but the army refused to enact the measures. That crisis eventually led to Mr Abhisit's government taking over from allies of Mr Thaksin. The problem for Mr Abhisit is that he came to power in December on the back of protests that were just as illegal, our correspondent says. He may look hypocritical if he only goes after the red-shirted protesters who embarrassed him.
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BBC NEWS | Africa | US captain rescued from pirates - 0 views

  • US navy snipers have shot dead three pirates holding a US captain in a boat off Somalia, in a dramatic rescue authorised by President Barack Obama.
  • Capt Richard Phillips, hailed as a hero for his actions during the hijacking of his vessel last week, was unharmed and has been resting aboard a US warship
  • Capt Philips was seized by the pirates last Wednesday after his ship the Maersk Alabama was hijacked by Somali pirates in the Indian Ocean.
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  • After pirates scrambled aboard using ropes and hooks from a small boat and began shooting in the air, Capt Phillips told his crew to lock themselves in a cabin and surrendered himself to safeguard his men, crew members said. He was then taken hostage in an enclosed lifeboat that was soon shadowed by US warships and a helicopter. He tried to escape on Thursday night by diving into the sea but was recaptured by the pirates and negotiations broke down on Saturday, the navy says.
  • Admiral Gortney said the military end to the hostage incident might raise the stakes for pirates in the region. "This could escalate violence in this part of the world, no question about it," he told reporters.
  • In Eyl, a pirate stronghold on the Somali coast, one self-proclaimed pirate said the US navy had become the "number one enemy". "From now on, if we capture foreign ships and their respective countries try to attack us, we will kill them [the hostages]," he told the Associated Press by telephone.
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Foreign Policy: Medvedev Makes His Move - 0 views

  • Stanislav Belkovsky, the Russian political analyst and insider, gave sensational interviews in November 2007 to Die Welt and The Guardian, stating that Putin was worth approximately $40 billion. He said Putin was the beneficial owner of 37 percent of Surgutneftegaz ($18 billion), 4.5 percent of Gazprom ($13 billion), and half of a Swiss-based oil-trading company Gunvor ($10 billion)
  • Stanislav Belkovsky, the Russian political analyst and insider, gave sensational interviews in November 2007 to Die Welt and The Guardian, stating that Putin was worth approximately $40 billion. He said Putin was the beneficial owner of 37 percent of Surgutneftegaz ($18 billion), 4.5 percent of Gazprom ($13 billion), and half of a Swiss-based oil-trading company Gunvor ($10 billion).* If true, this fortune would make Putin one of the richest people in Europe and probably the world. It would also make him one of the most corrupt.
  • The legislation prohibits conflicts of interest, requires government workers to report income and property, and mandates them to report on coworker noncompliance. It is tailor-made for a behind-the-scenes assault on Putin's power and legitimacy.
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  • So for Medvedev, the new anticorruption law, which he shepherded through the Duma in December 2008, presents a potential opportunity to intimidate Putin and his supporters.
  • Most of Putin's friends and allies throughout government and major corporations would no doubt find it challenging to provide full asset disclosure and transparency about conflicts of interest. With a new anticorruption law in his arsenal, Medvedev has a weapon of choice.
  • Interestingly, Putin may have sealed his own fate years ago by establishing a legal precedent for his own ouster. Shortly after Yeltsin transferred temporary presidential responsibilities to Putin on December 31, 1999, Putin issued Presidential Decree 1763, granting Yeltsin and his family lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution, administrative sanction, arrest, detention, and interrogation. If push comes to shove, it's not far-fetched to imagine Medvedev offering the very same arrangement to Putin.
  • If the two leaders cannot work out a quiet deal, then Medvedev might decide to use the new anticorruption law against a proxy. He would likely choose someone reasonably close to Putin with a similar KGB or law enforcement background: in Russian parlance, a silovik. The government would prosecute a current or former official for failure to disclose accurate income and asset statements, report subordinate noncompliance, or identify conflicts of interest. Once the government started such a prosecution for corruption, the message to Putin supporters would be clear: Watch out or you could be next.
  • Why would Medvedev turn on his political godfather? For political survival for the government, himself, and even Putin. Unless there is some fall guy for Russia's economic fiasco, the whole regime could topple. Counting on Russians' weariness with tumult and revolution, Medvedev may hope that dumping Putin will be enough to keep the system intact.
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Foreign Policy: Ukraine's Dangerous Game - 0 views

  • "I try to defend our interests so that we can find a balance in our relations both with the EU and Russia," Tymoshenko explains, meaning she wants her country to get into the EU without giving the impression of antagonizing Russia.
  • Could the same strategy apply to Ukraine's relations with NATO? Here the prime minister sighs for a split second: "There, it's more complex." It's not so much that she is frightened by Georgia's experience, something she never mentions though it's clearly on her mind. While recognizing it would be "uncomfortable" for Ukraine to remain "in a void, outside all existing security systems," she still sees several "political barriers" between Kiev and NATO.
  • The first problem she sees is that barely 25 percent of Ukrainians favor joining NATO. "Even the president accepts we need to hold a referendum on this," she acknowledges.
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  • The second "problem" is rather a carefully managed swipe at those Europeans cozying up a bit too much to Russia -- especially Germany and Italy, one suspects. In Tymoshenko's own words, "There is no unanimity in the EU on Ukraine's joining NATO as we have not yet witnessed a favorable attitude in every country."
  • At the moment, Tymoshenko narrowly trails Yanukovych in opinion polls but remains far more popular than Yushchenko, whose support has fallen to the single digits. Nonetheless, she remains a controversial figure. In an identity-obsessed Ukraine that declared independence six times over the last 90 years, even her family origins fuel much debate. She grew up speaking Russian and perfected her Ukrainian only after she moved to politics in her 30s. Through a spokeswoman, she also "doesn't comment" on rumors that part of her family comes from Armenia. It's hard to imagine her receiving the kind of voter acceptance enjoyed by Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy with their foreign-born fathers.
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Foreign Policy: Ukraine's Dangerous Game - 0 views

  • This is a tough day for her and an important time for Ukraine. Later she will speak before parliament to defend controversial new budget measures demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in exchange for unblocking a badly needed financial rescue package. The amount at stake is relatively small, a $1.8 billion second installment of a $16.4 billion loan. But without the IMF, there is little hope Ukraine will regain enough market confidence to roll over the $40 billion in bank loans and bonds coming due this year. By mid-April, Tymoshenko needs to push pension reform and higher gas tariffs through the legislature - hardly a comfortable position for a leading candidate in the presidential elections expected on Oct. 25.
  • It is especially ironic that this businesswoman turned anti-Russian revolutionary is now disparaged by Yushchenko as a thinly disguised Russian pawn.
  • Not that dealing with Russia has gotten any easier. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin did not like Tymoshenko's recent deal with the European Union on the modernization of Ukraine's gas infrastructure, and Moscow is holding up a $5 billion loan to Ukraine to mark its dissatisfaction.
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  • "All this crossfire shows what I really stand for is our own national interest," she says. Then she is quick to add: "The Russians worry that we are trying to privatize our pipelines by stealth, but that's not the case and would be illegal. We have to reassure them on that."
  • "There is no doubt we want to join the EU. At least 60 percent of our public opinion favors this option, and we are now closer to this goal than, say, one year ago. This policy must be the essence of all our actions," she says. But, she warns, it cannot succeed by confronting Moscow or ignoring its concerns.
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Foreign Policy: How to Negotiate with Iran - 0 views

  • Iranian politicians and diplomats have enormous sensitivity to any sense of losing, or losing face, in any encounter with Westerners -- and especially Americans. In the vicious world of domestic Iranian politics, walking away from a good deal that makes you look weak is far preferable to accepting it.
  • The United States must learn how to work with Iranians to frame solutions to differences in a way palatable to these sensitivities, even as these solutions address U.S. needs. "Track two" diplomacy, talks in unofficial channels, could help foster a conceptual and political framework for "track one" discussions between the governments themselves.
  • More broadly, both Americans and Iranians must recognize that, even as they seek to address specific issues, dialogue should be about more than political elites making deals. Dialogue, instead, should be about these two great societies coming to terms and developing a real rapprochement. Scholarly, cultural, and sporting contacts will help. Westerners should also bear in mind that it may well be the Iranian leadership that will be most suspicious of these openings, fearing that the revolution could be imperiled by such contacts.
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  • Despite the ongoing infighting that marks Iranian politics, a key point for Westerners to bear in mind is that all factions in "mainstream" Iranian politics support the idea that Iran should have the fuel cycle and a nuclear "option."
  • U.S. negotiators should be under no illusions. The idea that Iran should have some form of fuel cycle commands broad consensus within its current political system. The reasons why have as much or more to do with a very hardheaded analysis of Iran's security needs as with any ideological questions. It is not a matter of waiting for the present political order to throw up a leader who sees differently. That is not going to happen.
  • Those on both sides who seek to make the nuclear question the only issue, and who frame it in absolute terms and argue that it must be addressed before anything else can be considered, are not serious. This need to address other matters, even as the nuclear question is discussed, may have the effect of playing into Iran's hands as to the timing of its nuclear program, but it is a reality anyway.
  • And, finally, U.S. officials must realize that real dialogue, improved relations, and broader rapprochement mean more to Iran's elite than a simple thawing of relations. For Iranian hard-liners, all this heralds the end of a central tenet of the revolution -- that Iran must guard against contamination by, and collaboration with, the decadent West, and especially the United States. The Iranian people want a new relationship with the West. They are tired of being isolated. But in many ways, discussions between Tehran and Washington will be more of a watershed for their leaders than they will be for us.
Argos Media

Foreign Policy: How to Negotiate with Iran - 0 views

  • The Iranian political scene is an extraordinarily diffuse beast. There are many power centers and many players, all perpetually locked in intense competition. Western analysts often refer to "reformists," "traditional conservatives," "technoconservatives," "radicals," and others. But, in all my time in Iran I have never heard these terminologies used by Iranians themselves. A continuum, akin to the leftist-Democrat-centrist-Republican-rightist one in the United States, is not appropriate. For, in reality, the Iranian political scene is highly fluid, with coalitions continuously forming and reforming. Iranians' understanding of their political universe simply does not accord with Westerners' understanding.
  • Western analysts must also recognize that the president is far from the most important figure in Iranian politics, whatever Ahmadinejad's rhetoric may suggest. Even the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is not all-powerful.
  • Rather, he acts to preserve the delicate political balance, while subtly pushing his own agenda. The supreme leader can be difficult for outsiders to reach. Former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati runs a foreign-policy machine for the supreme leader, and that might be one avenue of approach. The most direct is simply for Obama to write directly to Khamenei -- from one "supreme leader" to another.
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  • The process of negotiation will surely prove just as important as the substance, at least in the beginning. Discussions with Iranians often take place in an elaborate, formal language, which establishes pecking orders and conveys unspoken messages. Concealment and dissimulation are not regarded as negative behavior, and speaking in broad terms of theory and history is commonplace.
  • From my own experience, Iranians spend a good deal of time at the beginning of a discussion invoking concepts such as "justice" and "respect" and saying that the Western approach to Iran has traditionally lacked both. But Iranian negotiators are very adept at avoiding the need to define these concepts in concrete terms or linking them to specific policy avenues. This tendency gives the conversation a circular dynamic that can be very frustrating. Faced with this tendency, Western negotiators should patiently and firmly, but also politely, insist that they be provided with practical links between these concepts on the one hand and policy issues on the other -- rather than endless rounds of exchanges over their esoteric meanings.
  • Western negotiators must also recognize that the stereotypical American style of negotiation -- blunt, direct, transactional -- irks and frustrates Iranians. Iranians fear that abbreviated and quick discussions deprive them of the context and the time they need to situate themselves to what is going on. All this argues for a long-term approach and not one that is linked to the need to "solve" any particular issue according to a unilateral timeline.
  • The Iranians are, justifiably, very proud of their history and culture. Their worldview flows from a sense of being the center of everything (a feeling many Americans share) due to their thousands of years of history. Iran's history also teaches them, not unfairly, that the outside world is usually a source of danger.
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