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Pedro Gonçalves

Africa's arc of instability has myriad causes | Observer editorial | Comment is free | ... - 0 views

  • Mali, little known or not, now belongs inside the arc of instability that was once defined as stretching from Afghanistan, in the days when the Taliban took charge, through Pakistan to the Middle East and the Horn of Africa via Iraq and Yemen. Now the arc is rapidly extending westwards beyond the Arab lands to Nigeria, west Africa and the Atlantic seaboard. The common denominators are poverty, underdevelopment, illiteracy, mass youth unemployment, misgovernance, authoritarianism, corruption, suppression of women's rights and of human and civil rights in general. All this and western political and commercial meddling, too.
  • Despite all this disassociation, despite the looking the other way and the simplistic analysis pitting cut-throat, dynamite-wielding Islamist killers against innocents abroad, this bigger story in which Mali's plight is now entangled ultimately involves us all, more intimately and continuously than could any random threat of a terror bomb in Paris or London. A major shift in perception and in action is required. Otherwise, be it indirectly through mass migration, people trafficking, arms and drugs smuggling, epidemic disease, the pernicious poison of official corruption and abuse; or directly through resulting, premeditated ethnic and sectarian, religion-based violence, the nonchalant, unthinking condemnation of a vast swath of humanity to impoverishment, physical, material and spiritual, will inevitably return to haunt the more fortunate peoples of the west.
Pedro Gonçalves

David Cameron faces EU cabinet crisis as ministers break ranks | Politics | The Guardian - 0 views

  • David Cameron is struggling to maintain Tory discipline over Europe after cabinet loyalists Michael Gove and Philip Hammond said on Sunday they would vote to leave the European Union if a referendum were to be held now.
  • Gove, the education minister, confirmed for the first time that he believes that leaving the EU would have "certain advantages", while Hammond, the defence secretary, later said he too would vote to leave if he was asked to endorse the EU "exactly as it is today".
  • The remarks, which follow similar calls by Lord Lawson and Michael Portillo last week for Britain to leave Europe, are particularly significant because they are the first cabinet ministers to say they would vote to quit if an immediate referendum were held.
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  • The prime minister says that, if elected with a majority in 2015, he would hold a referendum by 2017. This would take place after a renegotiation of Britain's membership terms.
  • Hammond, interviewed for Pienaar's Politics on BBC radio, later said: "If the choice is between a European Union written exactly as it is today and not being a part of that then I have to say that I'm on the side of the argument that Michael Gove has put forward."
  • Theresa May, the home secretary, said she too would abstain. But she declined to say whether she would vote to leave the EU if a referendum were held now. The prime minister will be in the US when the Commons vote is held.
  • Boris Johnson backed Tory backbench demands for an EU referendum bill and warned Cameron he must make it clear Britain is "ready to walk away" unless its relationship is fundamentally reformed,
  • But the mayor of London also suggested that leaving the EU would expose the idea that most of Britain's problems are self-inflicted. "If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by 'Bwussels', but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure," Johnson wrote in his Daily Telegraph column."Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans? That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU. In or out of the EU, we must have a clear vision of how we are going to be competitive in a global economy."
  • The prime minister's decision to highlight the benefits of EU membership is likely to be welcomed by Obama, whose advisers expressed concern in the runup to Cameron's EU speech in January, when he outlined his referendum plan.
Pedro Gonçalves

Latvia to apply for eurozone membership within weeks | Business | The Guardian - 0 views

  • Poland is the only EU country not to have fallen into recession since the Lehman Brothers crash. Increasingly it sees its future in being as closely integrated in the EU as possible, playing the regional leader and usurping Britain's position in policy-making influence.
  • For that to succeed, euro membership is essential as the zone binds itself into closer political and economic regimes and becomes the key decision-taking forum. The Polish president recently established a high-powered committee to examine and foster eurozone membership. Warsaw is now talking of a 2017 deadline.
  • whatever happens to the euro happens to us anyway. Our economy is completely euro-ised: 80% of borrowing, households and businesses, is in euros. This will help financial and economic stability."Similar arguments are made in Lithuania, while in Poland the impetus is less economic than political and geo-political. Warsaw appears resolved to hitch itself to Germany, and deems it a national security imperative, worried about Vladimir Putin's Russia, to embed itself utterly in the EU. It increasingly sees the eurozone as the safest of havens, despite the volatility.
Pedro Gonçalves

Georgia's president Saakashvili concedes election defeat | World news | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • Another unanswered question is Ivanishvili's policy towards Russia. The tycoon's international priorities are similar to Saakashvili's, and include European integration and Nato. But he has also pledged to improve relations with Vladimir Putin's Russia. Ivanishvili said he would try to convince Russia that Georgia's strategic aspirations were not a threat.
  • Russia welcomed the result, saying ties that had been frozen in the wake of the 2008 Russian-Georgia war could be renewed.
  • "We are definitely looking forward for a fresh, new non-hostile, sober leadership in Georgia," said Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman.
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  • A new leadership would be "very good, very positive for us", he continued. "If they have more political wisdom under a new leadership, then lots and lots of new roads can be opened for the country." Russia cut ties with Georgia in the wake of the 2008 war over South Ossetia.
  • Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, the current prime minister who was president at the time of the war, have refused to speak to Saakashvili. Ivanishvili has raised the prospect that some of Georgia's key exports – such as wine and mineral water – banned by Moscow in 2006 could now resume.
  • Relations are expected to improve under Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s.
Pedro Gonçalves

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Iran's currency crisis due to psychological war | World news | The... - 0 views

  • The Iranian president accused his conservative rivals of complicity in exacerbating the crisis over the rial, saying they had contributed to the situation by launching a propaganda campaign against him. The president pointed the finger at Ali Larijani, the parliament speaker, and criticised him for giving an interview in which Larijani said mismanagement accounted for 80% of the problems and the sanctions 20%, comparing government policy to "Robin Hoodian economics"."The respected head of parliament should come forward and help instead of giving interviews," Ahmedinejad said.The deputy speaker, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, echoed Larijani, saying on Tuesday that the government's only enemy was "illusion". At least one Iranian MP accused the government of manipulating the country's foreign currency reserves amid speculation that Ahmadinejad might be summoned for questioning.
  • "The president has deliberately kept the market agitated," said Elias Naderan, of the parliamentary economics committee, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency. "I really don't know what Mr Ahmadinejad is thinking. What plan does he have, what is his expectation of the system, and how does he plan to manage this disorder?" Despite several attempts to calm the markets, the government has failed to bring the rial under control. It has lost at least 57% of its value in the past three months after US and EU sanctions targeting the regime's nuclear programme came into effect in July.On Monday the rial experienced its biggest devaluation in a single day, dropping more than 15%.
  • On Tuesday, a senior official indicated that the government was relying on its security services to curb speculators, who are blamed for the rial's drop.
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  • Many Iranians have lost faith in the rial and are now rushing to convert their assets and properties to foreign currency and gold.
  • Ahmadinejad expressed regret over the arrest last week of his media adviser, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, and criticised his culture minister for speaking against a reformist newspaper, Shargh, which was closed down at the same time over a cartoon deemed insulting.
Pedro Gonçalves

Saudi appointment sheds new light on family succession | World news | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • appointment of the kingdom's new interior minister, Mohammed Bin Nayef. The significance of the sudden move is that he is the first of the younger generation of the Al Saud to be given one of the top jobs in the kingdom — which is being taken as a good indicator of the likely future succession.
  • Bin Nayef is well known and respected in the west, especially by its security and intelligence agencies, from his years as deputy minister of the interior, coordinating counter-terrorist efforts and running a successful "de-radicalisation" programme for repentant jihadis. He had an extraordinarily lucky escape in August 2009 when an al-Qaida suicide bomber from Yemen blew himself up in the minister's palace but left his target only lightly injured.
  • MBN, as he is known in leaked US diplomatic cables, is just 53 and thus counts as a youngster in the Saudi system. He is the son of the late Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz, who died last June after serving as interior minister for three decades.
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  • MBN is the first grandson of the kingdom's founder Abdulaziz Ibn Saud to be appointed to one of the main leadership positions in the country in recent years. It certainly puts him in the running to be crown prince-in-waiting - and a future king. Change at the top in Saudi Arabia still takes place at a glacial pace - despite (or perhaps because of) the winds of change elsewhere in the region. This therefore counts, most observers agree, as a highly significant move.
  • back in 2009 MBN was marked as a favourite by Sultan Sooud Al-Qassemi, the Emirati commentator, who pointed to another factor which seems to put the new minister in line for the very top job: MBN's claims to the throne are unrivalled in one aspect: out of some thousands of Al-Saud royals, including the top 100 or so involved in security affairs, MBN is one of the very few to be able to claim that he has 'paid in blood' for his country – and that is a tough claim to beat.
Pedro Gonçalves

A permanent ceasefire is the only hope for Syria | Jonathan Steele | Comment is free | ... - 0 views

  • Once the US election is over, Washington needs to change policy. One-sided support for the armed opposition condemns Syrians to months, perhaps years, of bloodshed. A Libya-style intervention would be a worse escalation. Far better to junk the failed strategy both candidates followed in last week's debate and work with Russia and Brahimi on a permanent ceasefire. Whatever disputes Obama has with Putin on other issues, he needs to work with the Kremlin on Syria rather than provoke it.
Pedro Gonçalves

David Cameron suffers Commons defeat on EU budget | Politics | The Guardian - 0 views

  • David Cameron will face a battle to secure parliamentary backing for any EU budget deal that falls short of a real-terms cut after he suffered his first major Commons defeat on EU spending.
  • The rebel amendment demanded that the next seven-year EU budget, which will run from 2014-2020, should be "reduced in real terms".
  • The vote is not binding on the government. But No 10 sources made clear that the prime minister would lay down a "red line" at the EU summit, which opens on 22 November, to reject a planned 5% increase in the budget to ensure that it rises only in line with inflation.
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  • senior Tory Eurosceptics, who declined to support the rebels because they did not want to vote in the same lobby as Balls, said they would have no qualms about rebelling if Cameron refused to change his position at the summit.The prime minister's negotiating position would allow the EU budget to rise in line with inflation, which would lead to a 2% increase. The EU budget will have to be approved by MPs."When a budget deal is put to the Commons I will vote against it if there is any increase in EU spending," one former Tory cabinet minister said.
  • Margaret Hodge, the Blairite former minister who chairs the Commons public accounts committee, was heard to describe the Labour vote as "hateful" as she prepared for a meeting of her committee. "I hate this vote. I do not want to do it. It's hateful," Hodge said. "I just think it's outrageous. I'm almost wanting to abstain."
  • One former Labour cabinet minister said: "The danger is that we are stroking a dangerous underbelly of Euroscepticism." Another former cabinet minister said: "I suppose I can just about stomach having to vote for this if this is about scoring a tactical hit on the government. But if this marks a strategic shift in our position on Europe, then I would be very worried."Labour said its position was consistent. Its MPs voted in favour of a real-terms cut in the budget in July.
  • The vote shows that the prime minister, who suffered a larger rebellion on a backbench motion on an EU referendum last year, is struggling to impose his authority on a sizeable chunk of his party.The warning from some Eurosceptics that they are keeping their powder dry until the substantial Commons vote to approve the eventual EU budget deal shows that he will have a tough hand to play at the summit.
  • The prime minister will tell Angela Merkel at a meeting next week that he faces intense parliamentary pressure to freeze the EU budget. But No 10 expects the German chancellor to say that she faces a more important challenge – saving the euro.
  • Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence party, said: "I am delighted that the house voted with the country rather than with the government whips. It is outrageous that the prime minister was prepared to go to Brussels in November and argue for what he would call a freeze and the rest of us would call an increase in the amount of money removed from British taxpayers to be spent by the distant EU bureaucrats."
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Pedro Gonçalves

Libya struggles to contain tribal conflicts | Reuters - 1 views

    • Pedro Gonçalves
       
      What about the secessionist movement in Benghazi and the Cyrenaica region?
  • In the chaos since Gaddafi's fall, the south has become a smuggling route for weapons which are reaching al Qaeda militants deeper in the Sahara and Tuaregs who are staging a separatist rebellion in northern Mali.
  • Gaddafi was always quick to end any ethnic clashes in the desert region and in 2009 he put down a tribal rebellion with helicopter gunships. But Libya's new rulers are weak and often out-gunned by the militias they are trying to control.
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  • Oasis farmers by tradition, the Tibu supported the rebel side in last year's uprising against Gaddafi. Their opponents are ethnic Arabs who see the Tibu, a group that also lives across the border in Chad and Niger, as outsiders.
  • Long-standing rivalries, divided communities and plentiful weapons are convulsing Libya as the interim government struggles to impose its authority and secure peace among the country's ethnic groups.Violence in the Saharan south and in western Libya have shown how volatile the country remains six months after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, who had long played off one tribe or clan against the other to weaken their power.
  • It is also used for trafficking legal and contraband goods such as alcohol, cigarettes and drugs, and by African immigrants heading north in the hope of reaching Europe.
  • Without a genuine army, Libya's National Transitional Council has struggled to persuade the many militias who fought Gaddafi across the country to join the armed forces and police, limiting its ability to intervene quickly in troublespots.
  • Analysts say the fighting will not tear the country apart, but it underlines the insecurity. "There is very little the government is currently able to do to prevent further clashes from occurring, either in the same locales or in new ones," Geoff Porter of North Africa Consulting said.
  • "That said, the fighting does not pose an existential threat to the viability of the country. The fighting has not been motivated by explicit grievances with the state, it is not driven by secessionist tendencies, and it does not appear to be underpinned by political ideology.
Pedro Gonçalves

China's military warns of confrontation over seas | Reuters - 0 views

  • "Anyone with clear eyes saw long ago that behind these drills is reflected a mentality that will lead the South China Sea issue down a fork in the road towards military confrontation and resolution through armed force," said the commentary in the Chinese paper, which is the chief mouthpiece of the People's Liberation Army."Through this kind of meddling and intervention, the United States will only stir up the entire South China Sea situation towards increasing chaos, and this will inevitably have a massive impact on regional peace and stability."
  • In past patches of tension over disputed seas, hawkish Chinese military voices have also risen, only to be reined in later by the government. The same could be true this time.
  • experts have said China remains wary of U.S. military intentions across the Asia-Pacific, especially after the Obama administration's vows to "pivot" to the region, reinvigorating diplomatic and security ties with allies.
Pedro Gonçalves

China's Wen - ready to boost eastern Europe trade | Reuters - 0 views

  • China will set a $10 billion credit line and a $500 million investment fund dedicated to eastern and southern European states as it aims to increase trade with the region to $100 billion in 2015, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Thursday.
  • Earlier this week Wen also promised to increase bilateral trade volumes with Germany [ID:nW8E7KD00A] and Poland [ID:nL5E8FOFAP] as part of a drive to diversify its foreign currency reserves, the world's largest at $3.3 trillion.
  • Cash-rich China has signed a string of bilateral currency agreements, including with Mongolia and Kazakhstan, to promote the use of Chinese yuan in cross-border trade and investment.
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  • "The Chinese side understands concerns among eastern European countries over trade imbalances and will boost imports from those countries," he said
  • Poland, the largest eastern EU member and still outside the single currency area, is engaged in a large-scale infrastructure building programme and struggling to modernise its energy sector to curb reliance on highly polluting coal.Warsaw hopes for Chinese investments in those fields.China is interested in Poland's banking sector and wants to open branches of its banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, its biggest lender, in Poland.
  • "We are pleased that Poland today is China's largest partner in central Europe, with trade volumes exceeding 14 billion euros in 2011," said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, adding that the potential for trade between China and Poland and its regional peers was much bigger.
  • Poland is the only European Union member to have avoided recession since the 2008 start of the global financial crisis.
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