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Luís F. Simões

Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future? - The Atlantic - 1 views

  • The Peculiar Blindness of Experts Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.
  • The result: The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15 percent of them occurred nonetheless. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire. As the Danish proverb warns, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
  • Tetlock and Mellers found that not only were the best forecasters foxy as individuals, but they tended to have qualities that made them particularly effective collaborators. They were “curious about, well, really everything,” as one of the top forecasters told me. They crossed disciplines, and viewed their teammates as sources for learning, rather than peers to be convinced. When those foxes were later grouped into much smaller teams—12 members each—they became even more accurate. They outperformed—by a lot—a group of experienced intelligence analysts with access to classified data.
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  • This article is adapted from David Epstein’s book Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World.
Annalisa Riccardi

Smartphones, Tablets Help Researchers Improve Storm Forecasts - 0 views

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    The next advance in weather forecasting may not come from a new satellite or supercomputer, but from a device in your pocket. University of Washington atmospheric scientists are using pressure sensors included in the newest smartphones to develop better weather forecasting techniques.
ESA ACT

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (33MB) - 0 views

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    Interesting not for the US securtiy point of view but some forecasting on technologies and politics of the future
Juxi Leitner

U.S. Spies See Superhumans, Instant Cities by 2030 | Danger Room | Wired.com - 1 views

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    how the us intelligence community forecasts tech development into 2030
jaihobah

Suburban space oddities | 1843 - 0 views

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    "The forecasts were the product of a series of "summer studies" led by NASA's Ames Research Centre and Stanford University, at which top academics, scientists, and engineers gathered to imagine how future space colonies could look. Artists gave life to the blueprints, producing a stunning series of images that look like a cross between CGI real-estate models (complete with would-be residents smugly sipping wine) and the fantastical worlds of Isaac Asimov."
Dario Izzo

http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2016/02/Forecasting-3.pdf - 9 views

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    one of the usual suspects advocating climate inaction .....
Thijs Versloot

Satellites help power grid keep its balance - 0 views

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    Using realtime environmental information (irradiance in this case) from GOES to update grid forecasts.
Nina Nadine Ridder

NASA Sets Coverage for GOES-P Weather Satellite Launch on March 2 | SpaceRef - Your Spa... - 0 views

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    launch of satellite to collect data for improvement of ocean models, weather predictions and hurricane forecasts
Dario Izzo

Past Future Predictions - 3 views

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    "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." Underoptimistic ... Excellent source of inspiration and quotation for all our reports
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    put them on the wiki ....
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    "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." Technically, this is a correct prediction :P
nikolas smyrlakis

BBC News - European space missions given cost warning - 1 views

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    Cosmic Vision missions, some of which to be selected before the end of 2011.. Favorite phrase: "Mindful of the recent criticism the agency has received from member states on the issue of cost overruns, Professor David Southwood, Esa's director of science and robotics, told the teams: "Industry and the science community need to get to work on this; it's a collective responsibility."" :-> reference class forecasting!
Luís F. Simões

Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - 6 views

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    just in case you were feeling happy and optimistic
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    An energy scenario published by an oil company? Allow me to be sceptical...
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    Indeed, Shell is an energy company, not just oil, for some time now ... The two scenarii are, in their approach, dependant of economic and political situation, which is right now impossible to forecast. Reference to Kyoto is surprising, almost out-dated! But overall, I find it rather optimistic at some stages, and probably the timeline (p37-39) is unlikely with recent events.
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    the report was published in 2008, which explains the reference to Kyoto, as the follow-up to it was much more uncertain at that point. The Blueprint scenario is indeed optimistic, but also quite unlikely I'd say. I don't see humanity suddenly becoming so wise and coordinated. Sadly, I see something closer to the Scramble scenario as much more likely to occur.
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    not an oil company??? please have a look at the percentage of their revenues coming from oil and gas and then compare this with all their other energy activities together and you will see very quickly that it is only window dressing ... they are an oil and gas company ... and nothing more
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    not JUST oil. From a description: "Shell is a global group of energy and petrochemical companies." Of course revenues coming from oil are the biggest, the investment turnover on other energy sources is small for now. Knowing that most of their revenues is from an expendable source, to guarantee their future, they invest elsewhere. They have invested >1b$ in renewable energy, including biofuels. They had the largest wind power business among so-called "oil" companies. Oil only defines what they do "best". As a comparison, some time ago, Apple were selling only computers and now they sell phones. But I would not say Apple is just a phone company.
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    window dressing only ... e.g. Net cash from operating activities (pre-tax) in 2008: 70 Billion$ net income in 2008: 26 Billion revenues in 2008: 88 Billion Their investments and revenues in renewables don't even show up in their annual financial reports since probably they are under the heading of "marketing" which is already 1.7 Billion $ ... this is what they report on their investments: Capital investment, portfolio actions and business development Capital investment in 2009 was $24 billion. This represents a 26% decrease from 2008, which included over $8 billion in acquisitions, primarily relating to Duvernay Oil Corp. Capital investment included exploration expenditure of $4.5 billion (2008: $11.0 billion). In Abu Dhabi, Shell signed an agreement with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to extend the GASCO joint venture for a further 20 years. In Australia, Shell and its partners took the final investment decision (FID) for the Gorgon LNG project (Shell share 25%). Gorgon will supply global gas markets to at least 2050, with a capacity of 15 million tonnes (100% basis) of LNG per year and a major carbon capture and storage scheme. Shell has announced a front-end engineering and design study for a floating LNG (FLNG) project, with the potential to deploy these facilities at the Prelude offshore gas discovery in Australia (Shell share 100%). In Australia, Shell confirmed that it has accepted Woodside Petroleum Ltd.'s entitlement offer of new shares at a total cost of $0.8 billion, maintaining its 34.27% share in the company; $0.4 billion was paid in 2009 with the remainder paid in 2010. In Bolivia and Brazil, Shell sold its share in a gas pipeline and in a thermoelectric power plant and its related assets for a total of around $100 million. In Canada, the Government of Alberta and the national government jointly announced their intent to contribute $0.8 billion of funding towards the Quest carbon capture and sequestration project. Quest, which is at the f
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    thanks for the info :) They still have their 50% share in the wind farm in Noordzee (you can see it from ESTEC on a clear day). Look for Shell International Renewables, other subsidiaries and joint-ventures. I guess, the report is about the oil branch. http://sustainabilityreport.shell.com/2009/servicepages/downloads/files/all_shell_sr09.pdf http://www.noordzeewind.nl/
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    no - its about Shell globally - all Shell .. these participations are just peanuts please read the intro of the CEO in the pdf you linked to: he does not even mention renewables! their entire sustainability strategy is about oil and gas - just making it (look) nicer and environmentally friendlier
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    Fair enough, for me even peanuts are worthy and I am not able to judge. Not all big-profit companies, like Shell, are evil :( Look in the pdf what is in the upstream and downstream you mentionned above. Non-shell sources for examples and more objectivity: http://www.nuon.com/company/Innovative-projects/noordzeewind.jsp http://www.e-energymarket.com/news/single-news/article/ferrari-tops-bahrain-gp-using-shell-biofuel.html thanks.
ESA ACT

Long Bets - The Arena for Accountable Predictions - 0 views

shared by ESA ACT on 24 Apr 09 - Cached
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    May be helpful for technology forecasting inspiration
ESA ACT

Turbinenschaufeln aus dem Drucker - 0 views

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    Forget our technolgy forecast: It seems already possible to 3D-print metallic particles.
Dario Izzo

Online Technology Forecast - 10 views

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    Reminds me of something .... :)
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    Star travel in 2069 ! Completely crazy this guys.. and what do you do once you are around Betelgeuse or Proxima ?
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    Not as crazy as "one united space agency in 2020" :)
Nicholas Lan

The Future… One Hundred Years Ago - 13 views

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    one of these again. french illustrations from 1910 of life in the year 2000. some pleasingly close. a lot of flying and robots. some inexplicable (bunch of people staring at a horse). some bmi.
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    I like them again and again ....
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    what would be todays equivalents?
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    Ha! The one about the horse is that "in 100 years there will be people who've never seen a live horse in their lives" :-) Actually it's more than true now with children asking my mother who works in the school "so, do those kangaroos really exist"? Children are fed with so much realistic BS on TV (dinosaur parks etc.) that they can hardly tell the difference between fiction and reality. If you already have offspring: have they seen, say, a live cow or chicken already? (This is most probably a reference to the quote: "Horse is as everyone can see")
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    >what would be todays equivalents? Hmmm... what about technology forecasts?
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    ah. that makes sense. what about the one where they're having dinner then?
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    No idea... another one I don't get is the one with the waiter presenting some small black-white thing to the white hair guy on a chair.
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    love the clockwork orange one
LeopoldS

Looking to 2060: A Global Vision of Long-term Growth - YouTube - 2 views

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    summary overview video to GDP development from OECD ... up to 2060 ...
Ma Ru

Information Preservation and Weather Forecasting for Black Holes - 2 views

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    S. Hawking argues black holes might not exist: "The absence of event horizons mean that there are no black holes - in the sense of regimes from which light can't escape to infinity." Physicists will likely appreciate...
johannessimon81

Weather patterns on Exoplanet detected - 1 views

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    so it took us 70% of the time Earth is in the habitable zone to develop, would this be normal or could it be much faster? In other words, would all forms of life that started on a planet that originated at a 'similar' point in time like us, be equally far developed?
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    That is actually quite tricky to estimate rly. If for no other reason than the fact that all of the mass extinctions we had over the Earth's history basically reset the evolutionary clock. Assuming 2 Earths identical in every way but one did not have the dinosaur wipe-out impact, that would've given non-impact Earth 60million years to evolve a potential dinosaur intelligent super race.
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    The opposite might be true - or might not be ;-). Since usually the rate of evolution increases after major extinction events the chance is higher to produce 'intelligent' organisms if these events happen quite frequently. Usually the time of rapid evolution is only a few million years - so Earth is going quite slow. Certainly extinction events don't reset the evolutionary clock - if they would never have happened Earth gene pool would probably be quite primitive. By the way: dinosaurs were a quite diverse group and large dinosaurs might well have had cognitive abilities that come close to whales or primates - the difference to us might be that we have hands to manipulate our environment and vocal cords to communicate in very diverse ways. Modern dinosaur (descendents), i.e. birds, contain some very intelligent species - especially with respect to their body size and weight.
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