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In 1972, the seminal book Limits to Growth by a group called the Club of Rome claimed that exponential growth would eventually lead to economic and environmental collapse.

Yet Turner reckons his report [pdf format] shows that a sustainable economy is attainable. "We wouldn't have to go back to the caves," he says.

I would suggest that China's January reserves data provides an equally compelling case for a reconsideration of the world's global monetary architecture. An international monetary system that requires this kind of official intervention - and likely will lead to more inflation in the emerging world than the emerging world wants and more government ownership of financial assets in the US and Europe than the US and European public wants -- strikes me as hard to sustain for much longer.

China added $55b to its reserves. Saudi Arabia added $18b to its foreign assets in January. Those two countries combined to add around $73b to their central banks portfolios. That means that those two countries alone could have supplied the $62.5b a month the US needs to sustain a $750b current account deficit and still had a bit left over to buy euros. Or they could have provided enough money to finance capital outflows from the US along with a current account deficit.It kind of makes you wonder why the US goes through the motions of selling Treasury and Agency bonds on the open market rather than doing direct placements with a few big central banks.

这是好消息。坏消息是，中国最近的增长代价高昂。由于担心近期经济滑坡将会加剧，中国决策者在制定宏观战略时选择了数量胜过质量的战略，其中最主要的是由井喷式的银行贷款融资的基础设施支出大幅增长。

在中国近期实施的4万亿元人民币（合5850亿美元）经济刺激方案中，基础设施支出（包括四川地震重建支出）足足占据了72%的份额。中国政府敦促银行加速为刺激计划提供融资。银行照做了

相反，渴望增长的中国却受到全球贸易繁荣的引诱，在最不平衡的行业加大了赌注。在2007年以前，投资和出口占中国GDP的80%左右。如今，面对严重的全球衰退，中国却让温总理警告过的那些问题更为恶化：将受流动性推动的巨额刺激方案瞄准了最不平衡的行业。