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Brian Butler

GloboTrends Wiki / FrontPage - 0 views

  • Brian Butler
     

    Top Trends for 2009:



    On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment...



    In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009):

    1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki...
    2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009
    3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends.
    4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments..
    5. more...



    add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009
Brian Butler

Financial de-globalization (a real trend?) | GloboTrends blog - 0 views

  • Brian Butler
     
    There has been lots of talk lately of "deglobalization"...especially since Gordon Brown (Prime Minister of the UK) mentioned these words at Davos, a little over a week ago. But what does it mean? Are we really de-globalizing? In this article, I will argue that while the treats of protectionism are real...it's still a bit too soon to call "deglobalization" a trend (no matter how good this may sound in headlines).
Glycon Garcia

Production of Thick-Film Thermoelectric Devices Using Centrifugal Force - 0 views

  • Production of Thick-Film Thermoelectric Devices Using Centrifugal Force

    - One step forward to realization of high-efficiency thermoelectric devices -








  • A thermoelectric generation device comprising thick films is characterized by its ability to function as a cooling fin and keep a sufficient temperature difference for thermoelectric generation even by natural cooling, and the ability to be applied to curved structure such as exhaust pipes. The newly developed centrifugally pressurized solidification not only produces thermoelectric thick films close to a single crystal but also simplifies the manufacturing process drastically and increases the yield dramatically as compared to the conventional method.
Jon Barnes

China's Appetite for Copper is Undiminshed - 0 views

  • Jon Barnes
     
    Chinese copper and copper alloy semis production has continued to surge in the first quarter of 2008 according to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. Production expanded by 24.6% year-on-year to 1.787 million tonnes compared to 1.432 million tonnes in the same period of 2007. Production in March totalled 643,000 tonnes a 15.9% rise from the 555,000 tonnes of copper semis manufactured in the same month of 2007. Total production last year was 6.626 million tonnes. The latest numbers demonstrate China's growing appetite for both refined and scrap copper even at extremely high price levels. However, recent reports suggest that the rate of growth will moderate in April.
  • Jon Barnes
     
    Copper semis production still growing strongly up 25% yoy in Q1 2008
Colin Bennett

Sustainable schools: Must try harder, says Ofsted - 0 views

  • Colin Bennett
     
    Schools and sustainability? Must try harder, seems to be the report card from watchdog Ofsted. If they carry on at this rate, they'll have to go and stand in the naughty corner.
Wade Ren

Demographic projections and trade implications - 0 views

  •  

    To summarize the raw numbers, China’s population is expected to grow from 1.32 billion today to 1.46 billion in 2030, after which it will decline slowly, to around 1.42 billion in 2050.  Its working population is currently around 840 million.  This component of the population will rise in the next ten years to around 910 million and then will decline quite rapidly to around 790 million by 2050.

  • The graph below shows the composition of China’s population by age group.  Needless to say the most dramatic change is the explosive growth of the over-65 population, followed by the decline in the share of the young.  Another way of understanding this is to note that China’s median age basically climbs over this period from 24 to 45 (which, by the way, may have favorable consequence for long-term political stability).
  • I don’t have the figures yet from before 1990, but looking at other sources I would guess that China’s working population grew by about 2% or more annually during the 1970s and 1980s.  In the 1990s, as the table indicates, the growth rate of the working population slowed to 1.72%, declining further in the current decade to around 1.42% on average.  The number of working Chinese keeps growing until around the middle of the next decade, and then begins to decline by about half a percent a year.
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  • All this has important implications both for nominal growth rates and per capita growth rates in the next few decades.  For one thing, a country’s GDP growth rate can be expressed as a factor of the growth rate of its working population and the growth rate of average productivity per worker.  As the growth rate of the working population swings from positive to negative – by a little more than 2%, depending on what periods you compare – this will have a commensurate impact on Chinese GDP growth rates, i.e. all other things being equal (which of course they are not).  China’s equilibrium growth rate should be about 2% lower than the equilibrium growth rate of the past two or three decades.
  •  This implies that over the last three decades China has had a demographic bias towards trade surpluses (working population, a proxy for production, grew faster than total population, a proxy for consumption), but over the next three decades it is likely to have a demographic bias towards trade deficits.  
  • Three years ago I argued in a Wall Street Journal OpEd piece that because of the aging and declining populations of Europe and Japan (and to a lesser extent China and Russia), compared to the growing population and relatively stable age distribution in the US, it was not unreasonable for the former countries to run large current account surpluses with the US since they would need the accumulated claims against the US to pay for the current account deficits they would need to run to manage their demographic adjustments.  This is why I have never been terribly worried about the sustainability of the US trade deficit.  In the next decade it is likely that demographic changes will create pressures to reverse those US trade deficits.
Colin Bennett

Tokyo Steel ends exports with strong yen, high scrap prices cutting into profit | Markets |... - 0 views

  • Colin Bennett
     
    Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co. has halted exports with the strong yen and soaring steel scrap prices cutting into profit.
Colin Bennett

Cheap Pens No Limit for Talent - Biro Art (GALLERY) - 0 views

  • I have come across all sorts of biro art sites and artists lately - and as a form of drawing it appears to be trend on the up. Biro Art is featuring more and more in blog discussions and they are even entire exhibitions dedicated to the art of making art with Biro’s. One in Spain had to be cancelled recently as all the art work was sold.
  • Colin Bennett
     
    Biro pens use copper in production of the ball. What impact will this new trend have on pen production?
Colin Bennett

Paint with LED Light - Philips Imagination Light Canvas (GALLERY) - 0 views

  • They should have this up in all waiting rooms in hospitals and offices. Philips Electronics introduced their Imagination Light Canvas— an interactive light wall that uses touch screen and Philips technologies to animate 1,420 LED (Light Emitting Diode) lights, at the new Mercy Medical Center in Rogers, Ark.
Colin Bennett

80 Things To Watch for in 2008 - JWT Predictions - 0 views

  • JWT, the world’s fourth largest advertising agency, was originally founded by William James Carlton in 1864 and renamed by James Walter Thompson in 1877 to The James Walter Thompson Company (JWT). It is one of the key companies of Sir Martin Sorrell’s WPP Group, headquartered in New York, and has just released its list of 80 things to watch in 2008.
Colin Bennett

Anti-trends - 68 views

The recent story about Tesco breaking into the US grocery market is a great example of using an anti-trend (smaller more frequent shops at local stores instead of big box shopping) to launch a appealin...

anti trend trends

started by Colin Bennett on 09 Oct 07 no follow-up yet
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