Political analysts have underlined that the EU was lucky to have a country as big as France at its helm during the Georgia crisis as this tempered the lack of real EU leadership. 

"The EU was lucky France held the EU Presidency, because Russia agreed to engage with Mr. Sarkozy on the ceasefire. But they may not have engaged with the EU if a smaller country such as the Czech Republic were EU president, especially with its difficult bilateral relationship with Moscow as a result of its decision to host US missile defence," said Antonio Missiroli, the director of the European Policy Centre, quoted in The Irish Times. 

Even the Polish President, who in the recent past called the Lisbon Treaty "pointless" and said he would not sign it (EurActiv 01/07/08), spoke a very different language after the summit. 

Asked by EurActiv if he was now more in favour of the Lisbon Treaty, Kaczynski conceded that indeed, several EU leaders had mentioned informally that the Lisbon Treaty would have given the EU better instruments to deal with challenges such as the current Georgia crisis. He then added that Ireland should hold a second referendum. 

The talks on a new treaty defining the EU relations with Russia were scheduled to take place later this month, but pressed by the demand of several member states, it was decided this would be tied to Russian withdrawal from Georgia.

The postponement modifies a previously circulated draft version of the summit's conclusion that took a softer stance on the issue of talks.

Poland – one of the countries pushing for the suspension – hailed the final declaration as a victory and insisted its position was not isolated.

"We were not alone, we were acting within a group," including also the Czech Republic, the Baltic States - Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, the UK and Sweden, Polish President Lech Kaczynski told journalists.

EU foreign ministers on Wednesday (13 August) agreed to send peacekeepers to help supervise the fragile Russia-Georgia ceasefire, putting off discussions on potential diplomatic sanctions against Russia until next month.

"The European Union must be prepared to commit itself, including on the ground," the EU joint statement said, asking EU top diplomat Javier Solana to draft more detailed proposals for the ministers' next meeting on 5 September.

"The European Union will want to consider how it proceeds with the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement," UK foreign minister, David Miliband, said. "The sight of Russian tanks in Gori, Russian tanks in Senaki, a Russian blockade of Poti, the Georgian port are a chilling reminder of times that I think we had hoped had gone by."

The Polish and Lithuanian ministers echoed the British position.

"Of course some consequences must appear of the aggression," Lithuanian foreign minister, Petras Vaitiekunas, said. "There was clearly disproportionate force used by the Russians," Poland's Radoslaw Sikorski added.

The French EU presidency is expected to endorse the Russia-Georgia ceasefire, offer humanitarian aid and urge EU unity in a statement after an EU foreign ministers meeting on Wednesday (13 August), with Paris keen to avoid controversy on who to blame for the crisis.

Preparatory discussions by EU diplomats on Tuesday saw a group of former communist states speak in "sharp language" about Russia, but the tone was "less radical than they used for their domestic press," one diplomat who attended the debates told EUobserver.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has warned Europe against falling into institutional paralysis in the wake of Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon treaty and said he hopes to propose a solution to the situation before the end of this year.

In a passionate speech in the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Thursday (10 July), Mr Sarkozy said that nothing was worse for him than "immobility" and stressed the EU should not let itself be paralysed because of yet another "institutional psycho-drama."

Paris' "absolute priority" in the next six months will be tackling climate change, notably by pushing for the adoption of legislative proposals on how to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 percent by 2020 – a goal agreed by EU leaders last year.

Harmonising the 27 member states' immigration policies and strengthening the bloc's defence capacity are the other main policy areas outlined by the president.

Mr Kaczynski is fighting to win oversight powers on Polish government behaviour in EU negotiations and to get government approval to host a US missile shield. The Lisbon row also generates momentum for his flagging conservative opposition party, as campaigning slowly begins for the 2009 European Parliament elections.

"If Lech Kaczynski signs the treaty it will be a victory for [Polish liberal Prime Minister Donald] Tusk. So the president wants his own victory by winning concessions from the liberals," Polish Institute of Political Sciences analyst Kazimierz Kik told AFP.

Under the motto "a more protective Europe", France takes over the rotating EU Presidency with an additional challenge – getting the EU out of an institutional crisis triggered by the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland.

More on this topic:

Milestones:

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  July-Dec. 2008: French Presidency.
  


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  11 July: Sarkozy visit to Ireland.
  


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  15-16 Oct.: EU Summit (Brussels).


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  11- 12 Dec.: EU Summit (Brussels).

Policy Summary

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Policy Summary

The Polish parliament passed the treaty in April, but Mr Kaczynski must now sign a Ratification Act to finalise the process. The president told Dziennik his general approach to EU diplomacy is to give Poland more clout by protecting national interests at every turn.

"My politics is a way to make sure the telephone number of the Polish president or prime minister is frequently used by Berlin, Paris, London or other capitals," he said.

Analysts expect the EU treaty to get through the 200-seat lower house. But the eurosceptic ODS party, many of whose members say Lisbon is dead after the Irish referendum, holds a 41-strong majority in the 81-seat upper house.

The Czech president, Vaclav Klaus - an outspoken enemy of Lisbon - must also sign the text to make it law. The largely honorary office of the Czech president would find it hard to block a parliamentary decision in practice, however.

Ratification map

France, Germany and the European Commission have called for ratification to continue despite the Irish No, pointing to a scenario in which Ireland stands isolated against 26 EU states and faces pressure for a re-vote, as occured with the 2001 Nice treaty referendum.

Sixteen EU states have so far definitively ratified Lisbon. The Finnish, Polish and German parliaments have approved the text, but are awaiting their presidents' signatures. The Swedish, Dutch, Belgian, Italian, Spanish, and Cypriot legislatures will finish voting between July and the autumn.

The Czech Republic is not the only problem country left, with the Polish president's office questioning whether the treaty still legally exists and the German constitutional court considering a legal challenge.

Austrian leader Alfred Gusenbauer last week said he would also call a referendum if Lisbon is tweaked for a second Irish vote.

Poland is emerging as another potential problem for Lisbon Treaty ratification, with the office of the president - who has yet to sign off on the document - beginning to publicly argue that the EU pact is dead following the Irish No.

"There are a lot of indications that...the Lisbon Treaty today doesn't exist in a legal sense because one of the [EU] countries rejected its ratification," presidential aide Michal Kaminski told Poland's Radio ZET on Sunday (22 June).

Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek has said his government will seek to complete the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty if the country's constitutional court confirms the new EU rules do not contradict the Czech constitution.

Prague is one of seven European capitals where the bloc's reform treaty has not yet received a blessing from the national lawmakers, with the process currently on hold after the parliament's upper chamber sent it for a review by top judges in late April.

The British parliament has ratified the Lisbon Treaty amid unruly protests, with the country's queen set to approve the document on Thursday (19 June) morning, in time for it to become UK law before the EU summit opens in Brussels.

The British upper chamber, the House of Lords, on Wednesday evening voted down by 277 votes to 184 a Conservative Party proposal to delay ratification until October in view of the Irish No referendum last week.